It has never been a secret that selective continuation was a "as needed" basis, in addition, I think we all agree that we need to make cuts to remain within our means, but make those cuts SMARTLY. Don't just use "if member is within 5 years of retirement by the board date" as a means to determine if you're going to cut people. I hate to make this a rated vs non-rated issue, but we are the Air Force, and flying is one of our primary missions. Personnel officers and Finance officers are important to our mission, but can I cut an FGO from those career fields and and probably replace them relatively quickly with a younger one and still do the mission? Yes, very easily. On the other hand, while we have very talented young pilots, it is a little more difficult to replace 15 years of flying experience and expect that you will be as effective and efficient in your mission. It takes a while to make a fighter pilot/flight lead and a seasoned aircraft commander on a C-17/C-130 etc. In addition, we rely pretty heavily on those experienced pilots to bring up the younger ones. So, letting rated officers (both pilots and navs) go just because they aren't within 5 years of retirement as of 7 March is not cutting SMARTLY...it is just "cutting to get my numbers to where my boss told me to get them." Forget operating within our "means" for a minute, if the reductions are "affecting units" then maybe you're not operating within your REQUIREMENTS.
Yes, I know there were specific AFSCs that were retained, but lets just think about the dynamics of one specific AFSC that appears to be adequately manned: the 11M. Have you thought about where T-38 trained pilots have been going over the past year or so? Thats right, they've been getting 11M assignments. If there is a projected fighter pilot shortage, do you think they are going to fill them with brand new UPT graduates, or will they (as they have in the past) have a fighter crossflow board? Where do you think they are going to get a lot of those crossflows? I'll take a guess...since they want need experience, they'll probably come from those T-38 trained pilots from that 11M career field that you keep cutting because TODAY it appears to be overmanned. There is a reason it appears to be overmanned, think about it.
AFPC, start thinking about manning 5 years down the road in addition to fixing your current relatively minor manning issue. You're going to have pretty major manning issues 5 years down the road because of how these drawdown intiatives are being mismanaged. Your 11Ms are going to be needed as long as we have ground forces in Afghanistan which will most likely be the case 5 years down the road. Don't just think about getting rid of 2000 officers by the end of FY12...Think about the messages you're sending with how you're making these cuts, think about the message that was sent to you during the VSP mismanagement earlier this year, think about how many of those "overmanned" (overworked) pilots may not stay as long as you think they will, think about the airline hiring spree...or better yet, just THINK.
Bit