Leaderboard

My CC and OG, as well as some of their peers, seem to think there is a silver lining to the school thing. The end result is that there will be more non-residence guys filling CC billets. In the end, this favors the concept of having your best leaders get a shot at being a CC. Overachievers will still do well, but the guys that are really sharp and didn't get selected for school on their O-4 board might have more opportunities because there will be fewer IDE grads to pass around to the staff/CC billets. I'm not sure how much I buy it: too many moving parts to really guess what the end result of fewer school slots will be. I'm a candidate and I think I would have had a great shot at school next year in my third look under normal circumstances. Obviously now it's a longshot. I still like my chances at O-5 if I stay in, regardless of school attendance. If I am a CC then great, if not and I end up being a crusty old O-5 (or even O-4) at 20 years and I will do everything in my power to make sure the young dudes grow up in the mold of a true fighter pilot. Maybe I'm missing something, but the fewer school slots (and "guaranteed" promotion that goes along with it) doesn't really change the math for me too much. Neither does the increased money. I'm still not sold 100% either way. Hopefully I end up with an assignment next summer as expected and I will make a decision based on all the data I have at the time. I'm staring at 8 more years (probably a Korea and two other assignments in some order) that will probably keep me in a fighter cockpit. That piece is way more important to me than going to school.

I haven't looked at the raw numbers - I'll take your word for it. No surprise though that the chosen ones are signing. Still, it's worth it for the AF to pay that money because an individual targeting of people by their specific circumstances would alienate more than it would keep, especially if the geniuses at AFPC are the ones trying to make the decision on who to target. You're spot-on with the idea that guaranteed flying is an incentive. That would probably be a huge incentive for the heavy guys because being current when you leave is kind of important. I'm willing to bet that is how it is going to work out for the fighter guys that sign for the next year or two. If you're a burner and want to make rank, then you will go to school/staff and learn how to put it in your mouth. If you are an average fighter guy and sign, you are probably going to stay in the (or a) cockpit for the vast majority of that time. I know there are naysayers out there and I am as cynical as the next guy but the facts (at least in the Viper) are: we haven't sent dudes to UAVs in forever & they have a pipeline now, very few ALO assignments, you don't go to staff without school, we don't even have enough dudes to fill UPT billets so if we end up with extra bodies it's not like they are getting sent to basket weaving academy. You pretty much have to pursue an assignment out of a cockpit to get one right now. YMMV by the airframe you fly, but the multirole guys (Viper and Mudhen drivers) are looking good if you want to stay in a cockpit. Raptors are obviously safe. JSF guys are actually overmanned right now but I bet that will change if deliveries stay on schedule. A-10 guys and F-15C guys should be worried. I think it sucks from a national defense perspective, but Welsh has basically thrown down that single-mission aircraft are the first to get chopped. I just hope that if it does happen the Eagles go to the guard. Not having those bubbas around is a risk this country cannot take with the MR rate of the Raptor. And that's coming from a Viper driver.

For those of you living the AMC dream...I'm sorry. That command sounds awesome.

So, what if that 2-striper Gen Welsh mentioned in that speech just decided on his own to stop filling out the 1800s? How would that have played out. It is one thing for a 4-Star to make such a decision, but another thing entirely for an A1C. It is funny that he mentions an information gap, because clearly his vector on this is 180-out from the compliance-at-all-costs policy that's been the law of the land for many years. He talks an EXCELLENT game, especially with regard to fighting the "mother-may-I" decisionmaking technique that most field-level USAF leadership seems to take. My fear is that his push to allow subordinate leaders to actually make their own decisions will go away once he leaves as quickly as the "don't worry about getting your Masters" policy disappeared seconds after Jumper was no longer the CSAF.

IMHO, it all boils down to leadership and personal accountability. However, we have all contributed to a culture that equates leadership to metrics and personal accountability to blaming it on someone else. Because we are so concerned with competing for COCOMs and such we have to pick our future commanders so early it's crazy. These dudes must go to school first look, in the case of a fighter guy this means they are probably just getting to the point where they are an IP who has legitimately done and seen it all and not just a "wide eyed, just finished IPUG, must get hours to get picked up for WIC" IP. It also means they have been a flight commander with a whopping 5-8 (I would have said 6-9 if it was still authorized) dudes under their charge and maybe did a stint as a TDY projo where the MSgt from MX and LRS probably carried them through. After that they do a year of school where they broaden their perspectives on the rest of the AF but really just strengthen their desire to just serve with fellow fighter pilots. Probably do a tough and go on the staff where they learn a bit more about big blue and become powerpoint warriors and then a DO job somewhere. While a DO they may get some actual real world leadership experience (the legit leading people, not leading a gorilla package against the hordes) but in my experience they end up spending a bunch of time getting their feet wet again in the tactics, beating the AMU OIC into submission, micromanaging the scheduling shop because he failed to beat said AMU OIC into submission, and still trying to fit in with the bros. Now they become a commander. When, where, and how does the operational community learn, and more importantly practice, the leadership that is required?

It's telling that 10 months after we were "promised" a "vector", we haven't seen one. Cue the "he's had his hands full! The budget! Sexual assault! Syria! He gave a great speech at the academy this one time! He got rid of Blues on Monday... sorta! Give him time!" responses. Great speeches only go so far.

If the mentality and leadership of General Welsh actually trickled down, the Air Force would be an incredibly improved place. I'm still hopeful it will. If a man of that caliber can't do it, I'm not sure who can. I wish I had the ability to speak that eloquently.

nsplayr has hit the nail on the head in AFSOC. On the negative side, some analysis on the HRT vs CVS numbers: most of those folks at CVS have been stuck here for some time. Probably thinking it'll be their turn for parole soon. However, the HRT folks KNOW CVS is inevitable if they stay in. At least that's what AFSOC leadership has been preaching for 4 years now: it's not a question of if, it's a question of when. However, on the plus side (gunship only) the 27 SOG/CC gave a brief a few weeks ago outlining some of his big plans that might offer a ray of hope for our manning situation. Not immediate, not approved all the way up, but enough straight talk and plausible facts to encourage even a cynical SOB like me.

"What's that you say, Lt Jones? There's no funding for TA? Stop quibbling and use your GI Bill or just pay out of pocket. You do know you can't get a decent strat without a master's, right?"

Awesome data. Hurlburt is at 33.3% taking the bonus if you count the handful of uncommitted folks, Cannon slightly better at 43%. Yikes! Granted small data set (41 between the two bases) but there's the state of your AFSOC force in a nutshell right there for ya. Yea, thank god they offered the bonus to the 1 guy in Bangkok...he was probably right there on the fence!

Standard ops. Ignore AFI 91-204 but you better have on the right color of f#cking socks. How can we trust you to be leaders if you can't follow small, insignificant rules? By the way, look the other way while we blow off an entire section of an AFI designed to protect the integrity of the safety investigation process.

Would love to hear Liquid or Chang answer this question which has been asked several times... who is the AF REALLY trying to keep with the ACP? I'm guessing the stats from AFPC are not final yet, but just the takers by base can lead to some obvious conclusions. When you look at the number of takers from places like Maxwell, Newport, Pentagon, District of Washington, Leavenworth, Monterey... being too lazy to do the math it looks like about 90 takers with one or two non-takers (unless I'm reading it wrong). I'm guessing 99% of those guys are at School or a fast burner Staff position (Pentagon). That doesn't include the high numbers from Scott, Langley, Wright-Patt, Hickam, Randolph who may be on either MAJCOM Staff or flying that took the ACP. Did the AF manage to give a bunch of money to a ton of guys who already had absolutely every intention of staying anyway? That doesn't even include the random places on that list! You never know, but I'm guessing they don't give the job in Beijing or Istriana to the guy without ACSC in correspondence done! If the goal was to keep guys who were planning on staying anyway then they hit a grand slam.

Impossible when your leaders are raised in Washington, D.C., instead of Sparta.

Hacker, I really do value the tangible and intangible benefits of having discussions about flying and fighting over beers. As a squadron commander I converted our "Family Room" or "Heritage Room" back into a proper squadron bar. We had cold flash Guinness on tap and it made debriefs much better. At my base, I had the club bar remodeled into a proper horseshoe shaped bar. CE did the complete remodel project in house for a fraction of the cost contractors wanted. I did wing officer calls at the club with the bar open and a beer in my hand. I've spent many, many hours on barstools shooting the shit with Os and Es and I have learned a lot. I don't drink as much as I did as a young CGO, but it is still a lot. Our deglamorization of alcohol has hurt our AF culture, and smart people will make the same argument about this sexual harassment mess. The difference is alcohol use can be moderate, responsible and acceptable. Sexual harassment can't. I think you can have great conversations, throw back a few and enjoy life without being blatantly sexually inappropriate to the women in our force. Say what you want about the TSgt from Shaw, she was harassed and her leadership and her officers didn't do enough to stop it. It looks like the culture in the squadron wouldn't allow it. It may be a very isolated incident, but the attitude that defends the harassment is not isolated.

So...whose side is Limnadia on?

Gentlemen, you have been chosen for the unique abilities you have acquired thus far in your careers and will bring to this platform and to air dominance in the 21st century. Our tactics are still evolving as we find out every day what the envelope of this jet truly is. There is combat experience in this room, test pilots, Weapons School graduates and thousands of hours of experience in the Eagle, Mud Hen and Fighting Falcon, and we are going to rely on you to translate that experience and know this jet inside and out. We need you to work to expand our knowledge of what it is capable of in combat. Everything you have heard about Raptor is true. It is the baddest mother effer on this planet, and by moving it across the ocean we move US policy with it. Our mere presence will deter wars, because there is not an enemy pilot on this earth who remotely stands a chance against us in the air. Our own fighters don’t stand a chance against Raptor. You have seen recent reports of 100 to 0 kill to loss ratios in exercises. That is simply because we don’t have any more red air to put against it. If we could put up more jets, we would shoot them down too. Those of you who have fought it, hate it. We kill indiscriminately and at will, often times without anyone knowing we were even there. If you find yourself with an enemy fighter at your 6 o’clock and a mile – he only thinks he has the offensive advantage. You will water his eyes with the bat turn this jet can make, and then you will kill him between his tears. Stealth is real, and over the next several months we will teach you how to use it, how to lurk in the shadows and strike on our schedule. You will do things you never thought possible in a fighter aircraft and make other nations loathe our great American engineering prowess. This is not a gentleman’s course. We expect you to work long days and show up prepared. It is extremely expensive to operate this jet and we do not have the sorties or tax payer dollars to waste if you put in any less than 100%. Your work will be rewarded with sorties that you could have never imagined against numbers only dreamed about. Take what you know already, and file it away. Don’t bury it, but understand we do things differently in Raptor. Your tactics would still work in this jet but they do nothing to take advantage of our speed, supercruise and our stealth. Embrace what we are teaching here, give it an honest shot and you will come to love how we employ this aircraft. Make no mistake, Raptor is a high visibility program. Do not Eff off in my jets, period dot. These birds are still rolling off the line, you will pick them up off the factory floor brand new. There are a handful of pilots in the Airforce today that have flown a brand new jet, our average fighter age is in the 30’s. You are very fortunate to be here. Do not ever forget this. Raptor makes you look good, not the other way around. A little humility will go a long way. They are single seat but imagine me in your cockpit every sortie, and if you even think of shining your ass, think seriously first if you ever want to fly again. There is no room for mistakes, showboating or shenanigans. If there is any doubt as to what you are about to do is a good idea – don’t do it. You are already flying the most expensive jet on the planet, it doesn’t get any cooler by holding it in ground effect during takeoff or doing an impromptu airshow for your buddy on the lake. We taxi on the centerline at 300’ spacing. This is the closest you should get to another jet all day long unless you are down to the gun. And we will train you to use the gun. This is the only warning. Gentlemen, if we go to war tomorrow – make no mistake – you will be the ones knocking the door down. Raptor was not built for Iraq, it was built for the next shooting war with no kidding threats that can do damage to our legacy fighters. You will employ against, and inside these SAM rings, paving the way for the bomb trucks on Day 2. Of the people going through the course right now, someone will have an aerial victory in this jet. A good day may yield you 6. Pay attention and we’ll show you how. Welcome to Raptor.

Thanks Herk and moose, I appreciate the help! Thanks! It's actually just for my car so I can hook it up to a portable and drive around the airport real fast - sooooooo, mask up. I sure hope people see me and think I'm finally cool after that.

Pilsung.

Oh, you mean like the official slogan of the comm sq at Al Dhafra? The one that they stamp on every in- and out-processing checklist as well as have on their walls, etc. "Shooting comm all over your base" Real professional, that one.