Every time I even hear HPO mentioned, it makes me want to go to the airlines. HPOs are not the guys you need to entice to stay in. People who actually want to become GOs are generally going to stay in because that is who they are. The people you need to convince are all the guys who want to top out at O-5, maybe O-6 if the job was right, but see the lifestyle of their commanders and DOs and don't think it sounds like something they want to be a part of. Going to wing stand up to explain to the wing commander as to why a four ship landed 20 minutes late? Getting an angry phone call from the OG because Lt X didn't properly fill out an eSSS before sending an unnecessary memo to the group? Having to tell your squadron that they are going to miss Christmas and be "deployed" for six months to a base in Korea where a third of them have already spent 12+ months because some four star wants another squadron in his command? No thanks. Fix this type of BS and the AF won't need a pilot bonus; they'll have to kick guys out because too many want to stay in.
Last years change was a significant step in the right direction, but I think 2003 year group retention (or lack thereof) is going to force them to up the ante. Problem is, that would require explaining to Congress why guys who spent years getting to their dream job won't take a quarter of a million dollars to stay in that job.