rtgators,
All hostile debate aside, I (and hopefully most others on this forum) appreciate you stepping into the firestorm. It is useful information for dudes to know that the bonus will not go up next FY as many are sitting on the fence right now trying to decide what to do with their lives.
Also, you are correct that Congress has made vast improvements to pay & benefits the last few decades. Just please don't bite off on the mantra that military personal and healthcare costs are spiralling out of control. MOAA has some outstanding charts to demonstrate that mis-information to be entirely false (even though I personally heard SECAF say it was out of control - immediately after preaching to us about integrity)
I will caution you also that this latest Congress (really all of gov't) has shown that it has no qualms using the military as a pawn in its budget games. There are many DoD civilians out there who took a pay cut as a result of sequestration. I don't know if the AD will be so lucky next time.
As for airline pay, you are correct also in that most majors took pay cuts in order to keep their company afloat. Most are now just getting back on track.
I'll be very interested to see your numbers in 30 days. It's definitely on par to be lower than last year, and with airline hiring projected to grow even more the next decade and on, it's probably going to get lower and lower. The guys that are Bonus-eligible are usually at the top of their MWS pyramid. You simply can't replace their skills and experience with a fresh set of wings out of UPT. These are your experienced patch-wearers, FTU IPs, and the first guys you tag with leading the first wave into combat. This is what has us worried - that the AF either doesn't understand that, or worse yet, doesn't care.