//wall of text alert//
No. DP allocations for IPZ/APZ and BPZ are different.
A DP given IPZ traditionally gives you your 99% chance of getting picked up.
A DP given APZ is rare, comes from the SR's allocation of IPZ DPs, and 50+% of the time, gives a guy a 99% chance of getting picked up.
A DP given BPZ is also rare, but not as rare as APZ. I'd say they have a >50% success rate.
AFPC keeps stats on all boards, and several MAJCOMs (A1) sites will have more specific demographics.
Example (very simplified) cohort:
The AF has 1378 LAF majors (all zones) eligible for P0515B (promotion board, to O5, CY'15, second officer promotion board of the year). 800 BPZ, 200 APZ, and 378 IPZ. Promotion "opportunity" is 85%. So there are 321 promotions to be had (378x.85=321)
A Wing has 70 of the 1378 majors.
Of the 70:
40 are 2 or 1 year BPZ
15 are IPZ
15 are APZ (1, 2, 3+ APZ, continued)
The Wg/CC is the Senior Rater (SR).
For this board only, the DP allocation rate is 25%
I/APZ (378x.25=95 DPs)
10% BPZ. (800 x .1=80 DPs).
So, our SR can give 3.75 DPs to I/APZ records (15 IPZ x 25% = 3.75)
The SR will allocate 3 DPs to the 3 "best" I/APZ records (as he/she decides), and take the .75 DP to the MLR.
The SR can award up to 4 DPs (10% of 40=4) to the top BPZ records.
At the MLR, all the SRs in the MAJCOM (usually, wing/CCs, staff directors, etc) toss their "leftover" DP fractions together to create whole DPs. Our guy put in .75, all the others put in their leftovers, and after adding them all up, the MLR can award 4 more I/APZ DPs. Now, the SR (typically) shows all the other SRs the DP records he awarded on his own, then competes his next-best record for one of the MLRs DPs. Our guy has good records, so he wins 2 more DPs from the MLR (5 total).
After the MLR, our SR's rack-n-stack looks like this:
BPZ. IPZ. APZ
1 DP. 1-4 DP. 1 DP
2 DP. 5-14 P. 2-14 P
3 P.* 15 DNP 15 DNP
4-38: P
39-40: DNP**
* this guy is eligible for DP, but SR doesn't think the record supports a DP.
**(All DNPs are guys with referral OPRs, Art15s, prisoners, etc)
Assuming the rest of the AF did it nearly the same way, most SRs lists will look very similar.
At the actual board, the 1378 records are randomly assigned to maybe six panels, each panel comprised of 5 LAF Colonels. So each panel scores ~222 records, scoring each one between a 6.0-10.0 scale, in .5 increments. If any 2 or more Colonels scores differ more than 1.5, the record is flagged and the "split" is discussed and resolved.
Your record's board score is the sum of the 5 scores from each Colonel.
You got a P, and your record got:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
7.5. 7.0. 7.0. 7.5. 8.0 =. 37.0
The best record in the board got a 50.0. The 1378th record got 30.0. The list looks like this:
1 50
2 49.5
3 49.0
4-79: 48.5-46
80-121: 45.5-42
122-176: 42-40
177-289: 39.5-38
290-316: 37.5-36
317-321: 35.5
322-399: 35-34.5
400-1378: 34-30
So, since there are 321 promotions available, everyone who scored 35.5 or more gets put in the initial promotion list. As a quality check, all the records with scores between 35 and 36 are rescored and a final top 321 list is built. Record #322 now gets rescored, if that record is fully qualified for promotion, then the process is complete (#322 does not get promoted, but his being fully qualified ensures everyone who DOES get promoted is fully qualified).
In the end, our fake board promoted the full 85% (321), with 275 IPZ, 35 BPZ, and 11 APZ.
There were 800 BPZ, 80 BPZ DPs, and 35 promoted.
There were 378 IPZ, 83 DPs (22% of the 25% allocation rate), and 275 promoted.
There were 200 APZ, 12 DPs (3% of the 25% DP allocation rate), and 11 promoted.
Congrats to all my fake Lt Col selects.
Your board #s will vary, but this illustration is typical.
Check your records (PRDA) , check your SURF (AMS) and DQHB (vMPF) often, and see your CSS to correct errors...and keep your ADP, VRED, and SGLI updated at least annually.
And not least: talk to your Sq commanders, talk to your group commanders, find a mentor. Ask questions, ask for frank feedback.
And...don't suck.
Good luck.
ETA: for the purists out there: yes, this is oversimplified, yes, I left out some stuff. This was intended only as "telling-time", not how to build a watch.