Doubtful. First, it would have to drop to 6 years. At the 9 year point (UPT+7) I knew the board results. I know it's a little later now but who knows how long that will last. I doubt big blue would lop 40% off the commitment with the current pilot retention issues.
Second, and the bigger issue, is one of the biggest problems with our management - they can't understand why people don't want to be like them. Who cares about being a school select? Mostly the career guys that are staying in regardless of ADSC or bonus. I know plenty of selects that are punching before school; it's not much of a carrot.
I doubt many of us are too worried about promotion, particularly to Maj. I know it's happening now that people are getting passed over, but the odds are small and in the few cases I've seen there were obvious reasons why it happened.
I just don't see anyone who is getting out saying "man if I only had the chance to go to school, I would bail on the reserves, guard, airlines, etc."