This isn't a future problem; it has already happened. Where do you think guys like Rat, Yogi and that idiot at the pentagon who got housed by a chick came from? The combination of picking generals at the Capt ranks along with our leadership/culture problems and poor incentives to stay have left us in a position to bleed talent for many years. Few good dudes stay and several people thrive in this culture when they would be total failures if (A) they were in the private sector or (B) someone had the balls to take them off the path they got put on when they got their SOS DG and kissed ther commander's ass for their first strat. We don't promote the best, we promote the ones among those that are left who best fill their containers An old an old squadron mate was pushed hard by leadership as a Capt/Maj - eventually goes to (I think) Shaw to be a SQ/CC. The other CCs there learn that this new dude picked up the #1 CC strat before he's even set foot on base. I mean, you've gotta keep the golden boy on the golden path even if objectivity goes out the window. My point: the bonus is small potatoes compared to the cultural and leadership problems. Can it help if executed well? Sure, but there are bigger problems that make the bonus almost irrelevant WRT retaining talent.