I think you and I are in violent agreement, but we have different audiences in mind. - For those individuals on this forum who are (or will soon be) making the decision whether not to punch, of course they can read from this discussion that the near-term outlook is not great in the Air Force and make plans accordingly. It's a great time to forego the bonus in favor of greener pastures in the civil sector. If you want to get out, go for it. More power to ya' - For those on this forum who, for whatever reason (they're senior leaders, Lts a decade away from bonus eligibility, or just morbidly curious) care about the long-term future of the Air Force, I like to think I'm providing a degree of value-added insight. I haven't seen anyone else discussing what seems to me to be a very low early bonus take rate on this forum, even though I think it's significant. I'd love to hear how the Air Force is doing with keeping people past 20--a metric which I think bears directly on the discussion of ACP bonuses--but either nobody on this forum knows, or if they do they're not talking There have been folks on this forum who were/are/claim to be associated with rated force management and/or senior AF leaders. As such individuals contemplate this year's take rate, I hope they'll consider the low early bonus take rate (and I suspect low retention of aviators past 20 yrs) as a "canary in the coal mine" and use this data (along with other relevant data points) to adjust future years' rated management programs to make them effective. If our senior leaders fail to do what they can, within the scope of their respective authority, responsibility and human endurance, to address problems within the rated force . . . then go back to bullet point one--it's a great time to get out. I, for one, hope for the good of the Air Force and our nation that--between better bonus options, more sane personnel policies, reversing social engineering efforts, etc.--more quality folks will decide to remain on AD. TT