No doubt in my mind that the mobility pilot community is hurting, and the evidence is in the ACP reports. It’s difficult to comprehend why the 20 YAS option wasn’t offered to 11Ms until last FY. Maybe if rated managers had acknowledged the clearly pending train wreck in the 11M community years ago, there might be some experience at the wing level and below, and we might have enough 11Ms remain on active duty long enough to be picky about future senior mobility leaders. Read below for the long version. Not saying other communities aren’t equally screwed, but rather sticking with what I know: - The 11M community alone has, over the past 3 years, lost 600 pilots/year (to all causes—retirements, separations, promotion to O-6, etc.) - About 250 of the above were 11Ms who either retired or were promoted to O-6 --- The majority of the remaining 350 were experienced aviators with 12-19 yrs commissioned service (folks who might have stayed if not offered TERA and/or were offered 20 YAS option) - I’ll be very generous and estimate that the AF is producing 400 11Ms/yr (my guess is it’s closer to 300-350, maybe even less after discounting those lost to 11U billets) Bottom line, the Air Force is losing 11Ms at least 50% faster than they’re replacing them, and those highly experienced folks who left are being backfilled with dudes who are being crushed by undermanning, a dearth of experienced pilots in the squadrons, the threat of RPA nonvols, etc. The Air Force’s apparent response, as indicated by congressional rulemaking, is to further incentivize folks to pursue RPA assignments. It’ll take some very inspired leadership to pull the 11M community through the next several years, but the stats don’t bode well in this respect, either. Optimistically, about 60 11M O-5s will meet the O-6 board in the zone at the next board. The Air Force has promoted 43 11Ms per year (on average, over the past 3 years) to O-6. At a 45% IPZ promotion rate, that’ll yield just 27 new 11-M O-6s . . . which will mean that the few 11Ms promoted to O-6 will be all the more stretched thin, with ever-fewer graybeard O-5 11M types in wings/groups/squadrons to back them up. The 12M community has shrunk so significantly that they can’t help as much with filling OSS/other billets in lieu of 11Ms like they used to during years past. The ensuing inevitable clown show in the mobility community—due to senior leaders and their staffs being overworked—will provide all the more incentive for young 11Ms to get out at the earliest opportunity, thus perpetuating the cycle. Meanwhile, the Air Force fiddles with the soup du jour (RPAs), while the overall pilot community burns. The 11M community, if 11F take rates and discussion all over this forum are any indication, isn’t the only one suffering from a lack of foresight from rated force managers. TT