Just thought I'd throw this out, for those who, like me, are interested in the near- and long-term future of Big Blue:
- AFPC has started posting bonus take rates for this fiscal year. There's plenty of time left in the FY, and the last update is as of two weeks ago, so it's pretty useless to read too much into the stats at this point. Nonetheless, as a pilot I feel compelled to pontificate, so here you go. Take rates as of 11 Jan 16:
-- Bomber (11B): 25%
-- C2ISR (11R): 41.5%
-- Fighter (11F): 24.6%
-- Mobility (11M): 32.9%
-- Rescue (11H): 66.7%
-- SOF (11S): 34.6%
-- Unmanned (11U): 51.7%
-- Total pilot take rate thus far: 33.5%
-- There are stats for CSOs and ABMs, but there are only 33 of them total, and I'm too lazy/disinterested to track them.
Observations:
- 217 of the 251 takers thus far signed up early for the bonus last year. Takers this FY have only increased the take rate by 4.6% (from 28.9% to 33.6%). Last year, they started with 38% (283/745) having taken the bonus early. I would say Big Blue is well behind the power curve when it comes to convincing folks to stay in
- If nothing else, it looks like there'll be no problem filling ACSC billets this year. Although some of the super-smart high-potential officers might be getting out and going to the civil sector, with a 33% take rate, there'll be more than enough bodies to ensure we have a core group of hyper-professionalized officers (folks who spend their lives in schools, fellowships, internships and staffs) to fill our future senior officer billets
- The reason for low take rates thus far cannot be long processing times. The Rescue take rate is already at 66.7%
- Fighter and Bomber bubbas have the lowest take rates so far. Rescue and Unmanned have the highest. Maybe ACC will one day be run by helo and Reaper drivers
- The Mobility community has about as many eligibles as the Bomber, C2ISR, Fighter and Unmanned pilots combined . . . and the Mobility take rate is just 33%. Somehow, I don't think mother AMC is going to be able to give up a bunch of 11Ms to backfill 11B/11F/11S billets like they once did
- This FY, there are 750 total eligible pilots. Next FY, it'll be 820. Increasing numbers of eligibles, combined with decreasing take rates, is a worrying proposition
Fly safe,
TT