This is a great read and extremely accurate. Young guys should take heed.
I'll add (from my position as an on-time non-HPO guy myself) a few of my personal observations...
In my little corner of the CAF, in the past few years I've noticed a possible pendulum swing in a favorable direction. I know a few on-timers currently serving as OG/CCs, and just recently have seen a few on-time dudes get hired as SQ/CCs over some BTZers. These were seen as surprising moves and in each case the dude chosen has a great rep as a solid bro who is well respected in the jet. None were career CCEs and in one case not even a school guy. On the other hand, the BTZers that were not hired had crappy reps as careerists and were not respected in the jet. I think this is a sign of leadership possibly realizing that performance, reputation, and demonstrated combat leadership abilities outweigh the box-check/pedigree method that was always seen as the standard for advancement.
The best advice I ever received was from my flight commander when I showed up at my first ops squadron. "You should strive to be the guy that people want to be on the flight schedule with - to do that you need to be good in the jet. After that, be good at your ground job, and then be good in the bar - in that order."
My experience is that if you work hard to be respected by your peers and subordinates, good leaders will notice and build their impression of you from those actions. Crappy leaders may not see that and you'll probably have a few of those. Treat them like threats - avoid if possible, if not minimize time in their MEZ and move on, pressing the attack on priority targets.
Timing and luck are mostly out of your control, but if you keep your head down and press you'll maximize your chances of being in the right place at the right time when the phone rings at 2AM.