I've not seen the brief you've seen, but a few things just don't make sense to me:
- There should be no 11F required 365s? I agree that requirements need to be scrutinized, but c'mon, man--if 11F experience were that valueless downrange, Big Blue wouldn't be quite so concerned about 11F retention. The point is to have competent folks in force application/other 11F-relevant billets. Who else would you suggest fill those CAF-type downrange billets? 11Ms? Intel officers? Space officers? It ain't like the 11B community is awash with extra bodies.
- Re: IDE, I'd say this should be the other way around--follow the Petraeus model. If one wants to go to IDE, or especially SAASS, he/she should have a meaningful overseas deployment under his/her belt. Too often the bright and shinies find ways to avoid ever doing much of anything operationally relevant as they work their way up the ranks
- Airline hiring is a major factor. I'd say you need to think a bit bigger-picture:
-- There is a very clear historical negative correlation between a-word hiring and AF pilot retention. This is true in all AF pilot communities
-- Going back to the discussion above, even if a-word doesn't necessarily make a direct difference in 11Fs' decisions to take the bonus, the indirect impact is huge. Let's say Big Blue works to limit the number of 11F-required billets downrange, and adds other sweeteners (beyond pay) to encourage 11Fs to stay on AD. Guess what--the billet will likely still be filled. Problem is, it ends up being filled by an 11M or perhaps 11R--which our primarily fighter pilot leaders have blithely decided are somehow healthy on manning. Hmm--11Ms have the choice between either getting beaten down on active duty, or heading for the exits and within a year enjoying better pay, better quality of life, and freedom from getting tagged with downrange deployments that should in fact be filled by folks with force application backgrounds (not to mention the many other 11M-required billets). At a very minimum, the airlines drain the Air Force of all the other folks that are backfilling 11Fs in jobs around the globe.
-- I would be curious if the survey only focused on those approaching the ends of their SUPT commitments, or if they also surveyed those hitting the 20-yr retirement decision. The choices then are even more stark--one can remain on AD and effectively work for half pay and postpone building airline seniority, or get out at exactly 20 years, and within a year be making more--between AF retirement and a-word paycheck--than they ever would have on AD.
In sum, I get that 11F manning is a substantial concern. I agree the Air Force needs to make a number of changes--not all of them costly--to encourage folks to stay in (reviewing AFSC requirements for various billets, minimizing unnecessary PCSs, pushing back against stupid COCOM requirements, etc.), no argument there. The above said, AF senior leaders are rightfully acknowledging that airline hiring is a big deal, and they need to continue working to find ways to minimize its negative effects on retention. Perhaps just as importantly, they need to stop insulting our intelligence. All the public handwringing over 11F shortages (with little mention of other pilot communities) implies that other AF pilot communities are somehow fat, dumb and happy. Nothing could be further from the truth, and a-word hiring is just getting warmed up. A sure way to keep retention low is to stay on this fighter-myopic track the USAF is currently on.
TT