Not how it worked when I had a seat at the table and nor should it work the way you describe. The #1 Major in the wing when I was the DS was a 2nd year Major (pilot), and he was pretty damn sharp, but was not an IDE select on his board. The #2 Major was the lead JAG and he was definitely a sharp officer...but also wasn't meeting his IPZ board for a couple years. I also saw 2nd year Captains getting a wing strat, and it's not because they were being discussed as a future GO.
Only a very small percentage of CGOs will ever be a Wg CC and a much even smaller percentage will be a General. I'm not saying that senior leaders can't (and don't) highlight these individuals early on, but they only take a few of the top strats. Most top strats are earned by just above average officers...and a lot of it is luck/timing. Case in point, the MSG at a UPT base has a much smaller pool of officers compared to the OG, yet the MSG gets a higher/disproportionate amount of wing strats compared to the OG--I've seen this happen with my own eyes. The problem is that the OG doesn't completely want to piss off the MSG and tell him that more than half of his rated guys are better than the SFS Captain, so they "spread the wealth around" and the slighty above average SFS Captain gets a wing strat and the slighty above average pilot doesn't even get mentioned. Now all things being equal, which one eventually has a better chance at making O-5? Bingo...