you're not saying anything new, nor far fetched. Those of us who weren't born into the decade of "everyone gets a regional job!" have been saying it since the lost decade. Air Force plays run the clock offense, always has, always will. And will continue to do so, until the next trigger for airline hiring slow down. It's an incredibly cynical play, but historically has always been THE play.
The only difference between the upcoming recession and the 9/11 confluence is the number or mando retirements plus the capacity right sizing the airlines did under post BK contract. That will yield few if no furloughs, as they throttle the demanded capacity with organic retirements and displacements as required. That doesn't help the newly-hired of course, which brings me to the next point.
Sub-10 year airline Reservists flock back to their units, as they always do. Being the plug in your BSE during a period of no new-hires is no picnic, even if you're gaining longevity pay.
At any rate, most of the sub-10 year guys come hide at the squadrons when the airline reminds them of the other side of "livin' da dreeeeam". This fills up the full time positions immediately, troughing pot gets thin, and the angle for active duty separatees to use the ARC as a leverage position temporarily disappears. Rinse and repeat, just like daily wind trends. I've seen this movie before. Caveat Emptor.
My only dog in this fight? Whatever one decides to do, just don't sh!t where you eat. Most do an honest job on that front, but we got a small cohort of boomeranging blue falcons that ruin it for everyone on both sides of the airline/mil continuum.
As to AD? I don't think it will ever get any better. I treat is as a known quantity, and something ultimately to be tolerated in small and/or non-consecutive quantities. To each their own.