Leaderboard

Cleared hot! I got a re-test and passed my FC1 yesterday without a waiver and without glasses. I wouldnt have had the opportunity to do this again without the help and advice of folks on this forum, the docs at Wright Pat, and the flight docs at the 104th FW, 143rd AW, and 56th MDG. My situation was a little strange, but if anyone has any questions or runs into this issue please DM me and reach out!

Madison interviews will be the weekend of Feb 7-9 and invites will be out in the next two weeks. Per an individual on their team I spoke to.

I disagree. Maybe it’s just me, but it’s the intangible training that comes from knowing the weather is shit for real vs it being the sim.

I’ll somewhat reverse what I said earlier based off an experience I had today. Student cross-country. He shows up with a beautiful VFR plan. Amazingly marked VFR chart. Even wants to pick up an IFR for some instrument approaches after. He briefs me that at 1100L the weather will be SKC, 9999 RVR. The problem is it was 1050L and it was still misty and overcast less than a thousand. The epiphany I had is that if we teach the students based off 1s and 0s in a sim and cut out too much flying, all we’re going to get is really good canned environment pilots. I know correlation doesn’t equal causation, but I have started to notice a severe lack of common sense amongst my T-6 students, and part of that is probably because we are taking away their opportunities to see real world flying.

An ILS to mins is the same execution as an ILS to wx cats except the numbers change. One just has a higher safety margin for error but I’ve never had an ILS with an error so great I couldn’t land and that’s counting the ones on raw avionics. With 2019 wind corrected steering bars etc, ILS practice should not be the reason we burn 69,000lbs of gas to practice vs a sim. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

ADMIN NOTE: I have no idea what the issue is, but I never subscribe to threads in the first place. However, I just signed up for this one to see if I get the notifications, and if there is an issue, we will pass it on to the software folks.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but it feels like we've seen this before... Goat fuckers are going to fuck goats...nothing we can do to change that.

Hate to beat a dead horse if no one is interested, but just some friendly advice to do a little reading up on the repo market, interest rates, inflation and what this means for any savings/investments you have. FIVE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS.

This brings up a great point...living in base. If you plan on staying in SDF, then there is no question about it, do everything you can to get to UPS. If SDF closes, UPS is likely defunct. As I'm sure you already know, living in base is like a totally different job as compared to commuting to an airline gig. Not to mention all the opportunities you'd have outside of simply flying jets. Right, go to the first to call, then make decisions. I left one legacy for another and it's by far the best decision I could have every made...reference living in base comment above.

Thanks, man. Good advice (which I feel like I have mostly adopted already). The only "tough" part about doing so, is that when you're in a guard unit in a domicile (Louisville/UPS), the numbers are WAY skewed toward that particular employer, and it can be difficult to get an idea of what everyone else is like. We've added a few Delta folks, one/now two United, and have a couple AAL/SW guys in the ranks, but the vast majority are UPS, so that's about all I hear. I'll have to be a little more proactive about the other companies, but, ultimately, I guess it comes down to who calls first anyway.

You're good without the book; you already went Mil to airline by flying at a regional, so you've got insights that someone coming from AD doesn't. Tangentially, my unsolicited advice (knowing what I know now) is to spend the extra time asking your homies what they do NOT like about their respective airline. This isn't a dig at anyone, but dudes coming off active duty have a very skewed perspective; most of them just got out of an abusive relationship with the Air Force, so no matter which company they end up at, life is SIGNIFICANTLY better. Since they've only seen the industry during a bull market, there are no apparent downsides. However, the O-5s in your SQ who've been playing this game for the last two decades can tell you what to be cautious of and what their airline is NOT bringing to the table compared to the others. Not that you haven't done this already; some folks here are unfamiliar with the process. Just my 2 cents; best of luck, man.

As previously alluded to, yep! Majority of 60/130 hires are from off the street, I'd say at least 1/2 of the ops guys are from elsewhere. For those who can't navigate the DMNA website, here are the pilot openings... 1575376300-HC130J_PILOT_OFFICER_VAC_ANNO_11H1J_FY2004_03DEC19.docx 1575376380-HH60_PILOT_OFFICER_VAC_ANNO_FY2005_3_Dec_2019.docx

Calculator works. The dumbasses put 2020 after 2019 in the list and it defaults to 2019. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

My functional called me when the PSDM dropped. He thinks it'll be a unique opportunity for APZ guys to get promoted. I'm not giving up, but I'm also not as optimistic as he is.

Probably not as uncomfortable as getting shot multiple times. I could just see it now. Leadership: You broke the rules! Armed Recruiter: Many people (myself included) are alive today because I broke the rules... Leadership: Ya, but you broke the rules... Armed Recruiter: Ya...but I'm alive! Leadership: We're still going to have to punish you! Armed Recruiter: Just so we're clear, you're punishing me for doing something that saved lives and is the reason I'm alive today? Leadership: But in doing so, you broke the rules! Armed Recruiter: But I'm alive... Leadership: ....... Armer Recruiter: Flips table!!!!! In all seriousness, if that dude didn't get a medal or award, our world is fucked!

Pretty sure trump would get you out of trouble if there was trouble to be had.

What’s the first year group wholly affected by the BRS only/no pension at 20 years deal? Will people in that year group (or those that opted in) even be motivated to stick it out till 20? I doubt it.

Heck ya, if they've hired you and as long as there is a safety valve of getting out should something fall through with the pilot thing, go for it! Enlist now and get that career clock ticking. Be sure to get your 50 points (you get 15 for just being a member) so that year will count toward your 20 years of service. Seems small, but we have a few guys who missed a year or so due to not getting 50 points while waiting for UPT...as they near the end of their career, they all wish they had that extra year.

I don't think your naïve but I would argue that what you saw was professional Aircrew after and the result of them having received a proper base of advanced multi-engine training and if you had observed aircrew that had a much smaller base of advanced multi-engine training, it would likely have been a different data sample from which you would have drawn a different conclusion. Likely said AC or Co would have required more supervision and training them on operational mission(s) would have entailed more risk and/or supervision to possibly make it inappropriate to do so. As to the airlines, they care about efficiency but take advantage of the base, fundamental training and experience already provided to their employees by other institutions, usually the military or other companies who earlier in the careers trained them. They get already experienced pilots, if the airlines had to start at the very beginning and provide for their pilot's training, they would not just take them at low hours and get the rest of their training done on the job. Not sure exactly what the low end of total hours for an FO in a 121 company (regionals) is but likely at least 500 hours, competitive candidates probably have around 750 hours. This is just not a good idea, case in point (tragically) - The Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX accident 'You basically put a student pilot in there': The copilot of crashed Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 had just 200 hours of flight experience They had someone not at the proper point in their career to be in that seat, he was with an 8,000 hour Captain, and while I am sure his low experience was not the main causal factor, but it likely contributed to that tragedy. Not speaking ill of the dead, I am sure that young man did his best but IMHO, he should not have been in that seat and I think that is a salient example of why you need properly trained and experienced aircrew in heavies. Full stop. Not throwing any spears and not sure what was going on when you observed crew operations but it can get demanding quickly. Planes are expensive, people are irreplaceable and proper training is required to protect both.

Concur. All this seems to do is create new push-line language that tells the board who should/shouldn't be promoted. I don't see how these changes would have any impact on any current APZ folks due to the fact that our records have been so disregarded over the last few years that they look terrible (no strats, etc.) Raters are going to push for the folks they know will get promoted on their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd look. All this does is change the timeline for the shiny pennies. Will there be some type of requirement to promote a specific percentage from each "look group"? if not, how will this system allow raters to highlight the folks on their 4th or 5th look that are performing at a higher level? Those folks still won't be able to compete against the folks with better records that are on their 1st or 2nd look. In fact, I think it would be more of a negative that you have been non-selected for promotion the first 3-4 times. On top of that, if you aren't promoted on your 1st/2nd/3rd look, won't that make you less likely to be selected for a Command position or be considered for future promotion? These changes seem to solidify who the chosen ones are much more than the old system did and I think it will turn into a, "not promoted on your first 3 looks? Well, you might want to consider a different career because this isn't going to happen for you". Finally, fully support removing CGO OPR's from O-5 promotion packages. If a person performed well as an FGO, and was given leadership opportunities, then what they did as a 2LT is, for the most part, irrelevant. Looking at the last 4-5 years of a candidates professional record would a.) give the board more time to spend on reviewing packages, and, b.) Even the playing field for folks that have been riding the gravy train because they were an exec as an O-3 (or folks that had a rater crap on them as a CGO). My only other question is, what happens if you don't get promoted after your 5th look? Does the AF boot you? If my math is right, wouldn't a 5th look non-select put a lot of folks at 18-19 years active duty time if your IPZ/1st look is at 13/14 years?

Well, miracles do happen. SAF/PC denied my request to transfer 30 months of my ADSC for transfer of GI Bill benefits, but they counter-offered 24 months approval. Luckily my hiring unit is awesome and is willing to wait the extra 6 months for me. Had Sq/CC and Wg/CC support from the start, and was hired into an AGR billet at a "deployed-in-place" unit with a 24/7 mission, all of which helped my case (or so I assume). From the time I clicked the button to the time I was notified of approval was 210 days! Best part is that nearly 4 months of that time was AFPC waiting to realize that it was going to auto apply their "6 month rule" and deny.

Everyone seems to think somehow APZ will displace IPZ. It is not likely because most people APZ are not given strats or good pushes regardless of their performance. It will be less than a 1% change in the overall stats because the records just die after being non-selected the first time. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Can't tell you everything as fine but as long as the dollar is the reserve currency of the world the party goes on, right now as China is stumbling (Uighurs, Hong Kong, slowing growth) they can't take the title, if they fix those and other problems then we've got problems

People I know have used Fundrise and one other and been happy. But it's all bull market investing so far and I tend to be skeptical. There are lots of professionals in real estate, there are lots of banks and non-bank lenders with money they will lend against quality projects. I don't see how there isn't a massive adverse selection problem with these crowdfunding systems. If the real estate was really that attractive why do they need to crowdsource it? It's not like this is a niche area of the market where traditional lenders won't lend money so you have to get creative. There is a multi-hundred billion dollar industry built around real estate development, renovating, leasing. I want to see how well all the rosy projections from these companies survive the next recession. If you wanted to sell me on crowdfunding in 2009 when nobody wanted to lend to anybody for anything it might be a different story but with $17 Trillion of negative yielding debt around the world you have a tough time convincing me that in today's market getting funding is holding back any sort of capital investment plan.

Lighten up Francis...nobody’s coming for your 401k

Unless you actually need the money now, you're better off just holding on and riding the wave. Many studies show that buy-and-hold outperforms market timing >69% of the time. Think about it this way - let's say you sell today and there is a 10% correction immediately after that. If you sell and pay $9k in taxes, you're left with $91k. If you hold and eat a 10% dip, you're sitting at $90k... virtually identical scenarios. On the other hand, if you sell now and the market goes up another 10%, you're talking about the difference between $91k and $110k and you're going to be kicking yourself. Couple that with the fact that the market tends to rise over time, and holding starts to look even better. Short term losses and gains are almost impossible to predict, but macro performance in the long- to very long-term is actually pretty easy: the market's going to go up, and the longer you hold on, the better your odds are of capturing that return. Here's another example. Let's say you're 35-40 right now and don't need the money right away, so you're looking at a 30-year horizon for your investments. What are the odds that the market will rise over the course of those 30 years? Obviously there aren't any guarantees about the future, but if you use the past as a guide, you would say virtually 100%. If you look at the performance of the S&P 500 over the past century, and try to pick the absolute worst time to invest (at the market peak immediately prior to the Great Depression) with a 30-year horizon, you're still looking at about an 8% annual return over that time period. If you let short-term fear and emotions rule out, you might get lucky here and there, but the odds aren't in your favor when you're betting against that kind of long-term macroeconomic trend. Hold on long enough though, and you're almost guaranteed to win.

That’s a bit harsh, although maybe I’m in the 90% and this is how I find out 😬