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Quit being so hypoerbolistic. It’s definitely a serious problem, we get it, but the virus growth does not go unchecked at an asymptote forever. That’s not how it works. There’s a guy named Peter Attia, and he may be Canadian but he’s a doctor. He’s really concerned about this whole thing, but he’s also not trying to paint it as the end of the world like you are. Suggest you go find a brown paper bag, stay an appropriate distance away from other people for a while, and listen to what he has to say.

I might listen to it. I might not. But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.

The 1-2% mortality rate is entirely reliant on the capability of your health care system to handle the influx surge of people. It exponentially raises as you start receiving cases you need to turn away due to lack of hospital beds/supplies/staff. Italy is a good example of this as their facilities are now completely overwhelmed to the point where they are not even bothering to treat patients over 80 in a last ditch effort to divert resources on people with a better chance of survival.

SWA just announced Voluntary Leave with partial pay. Details haven’t been disclosed yet, expecting words later in the week. I am so thankful to be a junior guy with them during a time like this. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

It will be interesting. I vote we call this new generation "Coronials" and in thirteen years we'll refer to them as "quaranteens."

I’m delaying mine for much more practical reasons. Gotta feed the wife and kids.

Yeah, I think we can all agree about the obligation piece. My thought is that a) our readiness is better served by a healthy force that has been shielded from this crap by as much isolation or minimum contact as possible and b) that if our readiness is in such a critical state that it can’t take the shock of a three week tactical pause, we’re in an even worse way state than perhaps we suspected previously. I’d be more worried about an adversary’s advancing if this outbreak was largely affecting just the US, but everybody has it. No other country is in much better shape than we are. We need to aggressively confront this thing. A two or three week hard stop now IMHO is better than dragging this on for months and months by not taking drastic steps.

This may be unpopular, but take emotion away for a second: we have an obligation as the military to not cease everything and cower in the darkest corner of our home. Leadership must keep the longterm/“big pic” at the forefront of their decision calculus to prevent a short term problem from causing catastrophic longterm effects (readiness, an even worse pilot shortage, opening up room for unchecked adversary advancement, geopolitical fallout at our country’s expense due to a weakened US military, etc.) I think most people and orgs (AF included) are taking reasonable mitigation measures, as they should. But to take draconian measures and shut down important activities for weeks or months (because 2 weeks isn’t going to accomplish much) is incredibly short-sighted, and will have significant effects.

“but I’m not synthesizing hours worth of material for your intellectual laziness.” - SurelySerious “But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.” - torqued Come on maaaan! Let’s go outside and do some pushups maaaan! Someone here is a “Lying Dog Faced Pony Soldier!” Sorry, I don’t mean that - but if you started from the beginning that it was hours and probably even more hours of research we could have circumnavigated this whole Flat Earth Worth of discussion. World is going to do what this diverse world is going to do. With no data to support, the world will not be like it was just over 2 months ago - the landscape will change and I wish the Best for all. Let’s flatten that curve. At least that’s what the digital boards show on the highways here in NYC. I’m out, I’ve got to go catch up on some NetFlix before I go do some gov sanctioned work. Now where did I put that El Presidente permission to travel slip... dang it!

You can listen or you can not, but I’m not synthesizing hours worth of material for your intellectual laziness. I don’t type that much, I’m not nsplayr.

Although they were under no obligation to offer them, they negotiated to reinstate SILs (55 hour no-fly line) and then said they were going to offer them for May and June. Then the day they were supposed to be posted for bid, they said nevermind, that doesn't work for us right now. Basically, they don't want to upset the other employee groups (non-union) since 13k of them took unpaid leaves...then they offered us over 4,000 personal (unpaid) leaves of absence. So they'll pay me 72 hours to sit reserve and likely not fly since we have 60-90 guys on reserve every day and basically no trips to fly (WB international category) rather than paying me 55 hours. Of course they could be trying to negotiate a lowered line value. In the grand scheme of things it's not a big deal, but it just destroyed what trust the pilot group had left in management. Lots of moderate folks just turned hardline.

Never trust CEOs, CFOs, etc. Very few names come up as stand up folks. They’re like politicians, take the credit during good times, lay the blame elsewhere during hard times which they contributed too behind the scenes or blatantly in your face. “Mongo just a pawn in game of life!” A dropped ball never bounces as high from whence it came. The rebound is dependent upon the gravity of the situation, in this case specifically public health, confidence and any surplus savings. Paychecks have stopped completely in many areas. Stay strong, stay inside and we don’t need this to spike twice or more. Thank God for truckers amongst many others. *Just flew into JFK early this morning from ANC, still too many people out joy riding around. Definitely less than last week so that’s good. Oceanic control had some turmoil last night due to virus concerns kind of like New York shutting down temporarily for virus exposure. Yeah, good times - not.

No but forced quarantine has held up to constitutional test before and philosophers have made successful moral arguments on suspending individual rights for broad public health. I believe typhoid Mary had to go through several constitutional test before she was ultimately suspended to an island for 27 years in quarantine. Also, we cannot underestimate the effect of culture on the success of far east nations to contain the virus. In general, people are for more cognoscente of their social reputation there and they are more likely to self enforce quarantines and personnel hygeine to save face. I'm as distraught over this as anyone. I literally just got to Europe eager to travel and I've been confined to my house the whole time except to go to work. I'm hoping we can come up with some smart mitigations within a month or so and return some freedom to people.

You misunderstand. This statement was in response to why China and Russia are continuing with their economies...they use authoritarian tactics. The western world obviously does not do this hence why we need to follow a different approach. This does not take away from the fact that our response is not sufficient. Stay safe and wash your hands.

No not sarcastic at all. I feel blessed that we seem best equipped to weather this storm. Still praying for all my other airline buddies. Several have told me that they feel like furloughs are coming for them. I have seen enough positive comments from our group at SWA that the culture isn’t dead. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

I’m going to go ahead and say our constitution doesn’t allow us to implement these Russian and Chinese tactics you want.

Sarcastic? I too am a junior guy with SWA and give me this job with the uncertainty over AD any day. I'd honestly rather go apply at Home Depot and sort hardware than plan an ORI or build a power point for the WG/CC.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll The charts all show exponential increases in death. China's BS numbers notwithstanding, where is it getting better? (BTW, Chinese cell phone companies show 15 million lost subscribers total over the last 6 weeks.) I'm trying to understand the logic behind "This will all blow over" and "Traffic accidents are worse" and other "whatabouts". Wayne Gretsky said something to the effect of "I don't skate to where the puck is, I skate to where it is going to be." Are people just looking at today's numbers and saying "10x more people were killed by snake bites last year, so this is overblown"? We're just getting started. Before this gets better, the rate of increase in death has to stop being exponential, then it has to stop increasing at a constant rate, then it has to plateau, then it has to decrease, then it has to decline to a level that is acceptable by society. So what is it, exactly, that people are referencing as the reason for any of the aforementioned things to occur? A gut feeling that summertime sunshine will kill all the virus particles? A cure is just around the corner? It only kills old people and they'll be gone soon? Washing hands solves it? It magically disappears as in China? I understand the desire to return to "normal", but the train has switched tracks and "normal" is way back thataway. We're not going back. Either we find a cure or run out of people to infect.

Unless there are fallouts, that is correct from what I've been told.

I agree with Brickhistory here. 40,000 people die on highways in the US every year. We don't shut those down, we accept a certain level of risk and try to reduce the deaths. I'm not saying we shouldn't do anything to mitigate risk and try to reduce the curve, but I think history will judge that we were too aggressive on this. That the cure was more dangerous than the disease. Worldwide depression seems very likely with our current course of action. Pour money into the healthcare system and a vaccine with the economy continuing to function and pay for it if instead. I also may be mistaken, but I think the CFR will be drastically reduced in the future, when they finally start mass testing. So many people are asymptomatic, and they're strict with who they test. As a result, the number of critically ill and deaths to cases is artificially high because the denominator in that ratio is very under reported worldwide. Of course every time someone loses a loved one, it's tragic. But I think we can do the best we can to protect the vulnerable, without shutting down the country completely.

When this eventually blows over and the politicians boast how “only X amount died/we saved Y amount,” keep an eye on the 2020-2022 suicide rates. I bet the increase dwarfs any “saves” by the draconian steps we’re taking right now.

I dont know if theres a subtopic that this topic fits under so Im just posting this here. Here is my story of how I got picked up by a KC-135 ANG unit. Roughly 2.5 years ago, at the ripe young age of 28, I decided to pursue this thing with all that I had. I got started so late because, in my youth, I made some stupid decisions. At 19 I failed out of college (straight up just kind of stopped going). I really dont have a good reason for having this attitude. I just had little motivation, wanted to hang out with friends, work, and just do things my own way. In some respects, I feel like I only enrolled in college because everyone else I knew from my high school did. So I went with no real desire to be there with no regard for the consequences of doing so. Immaturity in its purest form. In the following 6 years, I was enlisted in the South Dakota Air National Guard as an AMMO troop. On the civilian side, I spent a year busting tires in a tire shop (1 year), then worked in a hotel front office (1 year). In 2014, fed up with making horrible wages, I went up to North Dakota and worked as a floorhand on a drilling rig. Money was great, the work was incredibly physical and dangerous, but I was finally making good money. After a year and a half, the price of oil went down the toilet, and my rig was stacked, and I was laid off. Then, in 2015, I found a job back in Western South Dakota near my hometown operating a bulldozer at a local bentonite mine. Somewhere along the way, I really started thinking about what I 'actually' wanted to do with my life. I knew running a bulldozer for 12 hours a day was not it. I enjoyed my time as an AMMO troop in the SDANG but, because I met my wife while 'deployed' to Korea in 2015, I opted out of reenlisting in 2016 so that I could move to Guam where she was stationed. After moving there, she was pregnant and done with her enlistment by 2017. This is when I really became interested in flying. My uncle, a former Naval aviator and retired Delta pilot, had always instilled an interest in aviation when I was younger but, through my ignorance, I truly believed I had just messed up my education beyond repair after failing out of school. (This is why I never even thought to look into the process of being a pilot while a member at the SDANG, an F-16 unit). But here I was; back in South Dakota, 28 years old, newly married with a young daughter and I knew if I was going to pursue this, I needed to go now. I was obviously incredibly discouraged at that time to find out that the age cutoff was 30, meaning that if I were going to be selected, then I would have to have been selected right there and then with no college education and no flight time. I had heard about the possiblility of age waivers and so, that was what I was going for. I reenrolled at a school that has an accelerated program shortly thereafter, began taking flight lessons, called the Ellsworth AFB Education/Training Center and scheduled the AFOQT and TBAS within the following 6 months. The best news about all of this was that the school I enrolled in actually doesnt take prior institutions GPA's into consideration, so I basically got a clean sheet. Probably better news was the age was bumped up from 30 to 33 last year which, to me, was the biggest relief and it made me realize that this was truly doable and lifted some of the weight off of my shoulders of the notion of a fruitless pursuit. I turned 30 last June and the time from 28 to 30 have been the busiest years of my life. I work 50 hours a week, go to school more than full time (amounts to about 20 credit hours per regular semester), fly as much as weather and finances permit, and try to be a somewhat present husband and father. I finally reached 90 credits this January, and started applying to units in February. I was obviously missing a Bachelors (will complete in August) and a PPL but, some units are stingier than others on prerequisites. I made a spreadsheet in which I mapped out every ANG unit in the country that has a flying mission and gave everyone of them a call (believe me, they dont all post on Bogidope). I got ahold of a few chief pilots, many recruiters, and left many messages requesting information about upcoming UPT boards. I got a text back the next week that literally read: "(Name) here, give me the basics; age, AFOQT scores, PCSM, degree, GPA, flight time." So I did and the following text he sent me about floored me. He said "Can you be here for an interview on March 7?" At this point, Im pretty stunned, so I called the guy. Wondering who this guy was, and who had the authority to invite me to an interview through a text message, I asked him what his position was and he said "Im the Chief pilot here." I replied emphatically that I wouldnt miss the interview for the world. Long story short, I am at the the interview this past weekend and they ask the one question I knew they would: "Its very obvious that you're passionate about this and that youve worked really hard the last couple of years to achieve this, but where was this drive and determination 10 years ago?" I looked him right in his eyes and said "Thats a great question. It wasnt there. I wish I could make up some excuse as to why I started this pursuit so late but I cant. I was a clown in my earlier years. I didnt take anything seriously and had no regard for the consequences of my actions. Full disclosure, because my transcripts dont show it, I actually failed out of college at 19. But life has a way of knocking you down and making you grow up and, after the last ten years of working full time, I realize the value of taking my education seriously. It is already paying dividends because I wouldnt even be at this interview if I hadnt started taking things seriously. I cant change the past but I hope that the last two years show you guys that I am serious about this." Overall, the interview went well. It was much more relaxed than I imagined and I got along really well with the other candidates. I wished them all luck, and just tried to realize that we were all here trying to achieve our dream. I just made it a point to be myself, be humbled, socialize and just be completely transparent about my mistakes and my journey up to that point. I found out two days ago (Just three days after the interview) that I had been selected. My offer is contingent on me completing my bachelors and PPL by the end of the year. So, while there is still tons of work to do, I feel so blessed to have the opportunity to be given my dream job and will certainly be meeting those two contingencies. I want to thank everyone on this forum for sharing their insight and knowledge on the multitude of topics that this process entails. Im certain I will be referring to it in the near-future. This place is a great resource for anyone pursuing a career as an AF/ANG pilot. Lastly, though it sounds incredibly cliche, dont give up. I felt that at times I was never going to make it. The doubt definitely got to me at times that I had started too late, or screwed up too bad or, that I missed my opportunity and am too old. But, as the email I got from the Chief Pilot the other day states, my "ticket is punched." FWIW, here are is what my numbers were on the date of my interview. Nothing special thats for sure: Age: 30 AFOQT P:90, Nav: 78, AA: 55, V: 68, Q:48 PCSM: 72 w/14 flight hours. GPA: 2.93

The squadron I work in is doing one week on one week off.

I think your math is inflated by several digits, but as I premised, what is the cut line? Some, worst case in my opinion, 20,000-30,000 in the U.S., another 50,000 worldwide deaths or a literal stopped economy, both ours and Western Europe? BTW, China is cranking its factories back up and Russia never stopped. We are printing money by the non-metric sh1t ton-load and the stock market is still tanking. Small businesses do not have the reserves to stand more than 1-2 weeks of not getting customers. Even if we opened for business tomorrow, thousands of mom-and-pop's are gone. They'll eventually be replaced assuming there's still an economy to make it worthwhile to try. As I said, I don't have the answer(s). More/gooder medical supplies/meds, yea! Shutting everyone up behind closed doors? Not so sure. And I'm (using the royal "I," not me personally) losing my first, second, fourth, sixth, and seventh amendment rights because somebody said so. Is that us? I'm agin that.

There were an estimated 38-54M cases of the flu in the US alone over the last 6 months. Given that Covid-19 is twice as transmissible as the common flu, topping 100M isn't a far fetched thought. Lets imagine we just let it run wild and it only infects the same amount of people as the regular flu...even with the conservative CFR we've seen in the US of 1.31/100 you're looking at 700k dead...roughly twice the size of the USAF. What's that worth to the economy? Now imagine it's twice as transmissible (it is), and that some countries have seen CFRs upwards to 4+ (China) or 9+ (Italy). Also you aren't even considering the logistical side of our crippled healthcare system dealing with that many cases of Coronavirus. You think the VA is bad now? Just wait.

first things first man you're ####in with the worst i'll be stick pins in ya head like a ####in nurse

Kenny, I don't disagree that Kung Flu should be the standard nomenclature...However, I think an argument could be made for: Sweet and Sour Sicken Wumonia Bat Soup Croup Flu Man Chu Communist Lung Herpes

Not a day goes by where I wish I stayed in. Job security included. Live below your means, keep your wife amount to under 2 definitely less than 3, save appropriately, and enjoy the ride. Always hope for the best but plan for the worst. Still better than Active Duty.

For once in my real estate life, I think I wound up on the positive side thanks to baseops, this thread, and Jon & Co. Right before the end of world this month, I contacted Jon more out of curiosity than actual interest as I had, via NBKC, a VA loan at 3.25%. Had it for three years and was pretty content. E-mailed Jon on a Tuesday night and he could've locked me in that night at 2.75% but I wanted to sleep on it. Next day, he still scored the 2.75%. A big savings for me monthly and over the course of the loan which will now reduce even faster. Well done!

This picture was posted on the Fire Bombers group on facebook and I thought it really captures the essence of aerial firefighting in general, and what we focus on at CalFire in particular. Initial Attack to support the aggressive response by the ground firefighters, who do the real work and actually put out the fires. This photo was taken 40+ years ago and some things have changed, but the mission remains the same. Just thought I'd share it here...

You guys are so busted! 😉 And good on “Spoo” Clark for maintaining a sense of humor!

Wouldn’t count of fallouts bros. We were told yesterday that no new classes are starting at our base. Rumor for new arrivals with Orders In hand is to still in process but don’t expect to start anytime soon. Phase progression once complete is being halted as well. I have a bro that tracked 38s and was T6 complete last week. He was told to expect NOT to start phase 3 anytime soon. Not sure if it’s the same deal with all the other UPT bases. These are Crazy times at UPT bros. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Yep, I posted that in the other thread... Note...