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It is temporarily painful because everyone is caught off guard. Instead of trying to force our way back to what was normal, I think we should consider what wasn't necessary in the first place. I welcome the potential for change of shifting away from several boomer-era institutional inertias...we might realize that we don't need to sit around offices for 5 days a week, 9 hours a day staring at a computer when the work could be done faster at home with a decent computer and internet connection. Also I don't want to go through an entire store to pick up one thing...bring it to me at the curb or deliver to my house? Yes please. Businesses might start actually refilling hand sanitizers, taking the time to clean the bathrooms and people may even start washing their hands more often. I might not have to stand behind a line of old people at the store paying cash and writing checks at the store if they learn to use a NFC payment for fear of their life. We might care that those prepping our food have adequate sick leave so they aren't pressured to work sick. We might care that there are social safety nets for mass layoffs. We might care that there is a strong healthcare system that is there to support a significant event like this. Or we can just act like this isn't a big deal...it's the last time something like this is going to happen, and go back to work while people around us die.

Ok, brother. Here's the deal. I'm not trying to escalate the debate. I'm genuinely trying to wrap my head around this and open to any helpful information. I listened to the first 45 min of podcast #99 with Attia and Hotez. At around the 15 min mark, I came back here to the forum to see if I had the correct podcast. Not trying to be a dick about this, and perhaps I missed some important information. Maybe I have a confirmation bias. I don't know. You were right, there was a lot of solid, intellectual information in that podcast, but there was absolutely ZERO that could be construed as positive points of optimism. Nothing that indicates we have a grasp on this thing or a workable solution. Here's just a few notes I took from the doctor: 15:15: "Health systems are already stressed and I'm worried we could see a collapse in a couple weeks. I'm very concerned" 16:15: "The first breakdown is starting to happen with doctors and nurses exhausted and there seems to be a breakdown of trust" 17:45:"This is no longer a disease of the old and infirm. This buzz is catching on among young physicians, and it is highly destabilizing, and they're feeling abandoned." 21:20: "I don't have an obvious solution to figuring this out (Regarding physician burn-out)" 28:00: "The most disturbing thing I have seen today s that half the hospitalizations are under 54, and about a 3rd between 20-44, and even some under 19." 32:15: "The Federal Government thinks this pandemic will last 18 months. I'm really doubtful we will have a vaccine in 18 months. I think this will be much longer than 18 months." 41:00 "Unless we can find a way to make our hospitals safe and take care of our health care providers, we are going to be in very deep trouble."

This is exactly where the rubber is meeting the road right now regarding change. Forced back to telecommute/video teleconferencing at an accelerated rate. Companies quickly invested in the software and business sector will come back regarding travel meetings but not nearly as strong. It was going to happen anyway and now the real estate is truly the home. The brick and mortar will decrease as it is required no longer. Probably some good sized tremors if the bean counters really do their homework.

A few Pics doesn’t really justify the mass of iron laying around, but seeing this here, there at least everywhere I’ve been lately is surreal.

I might listen to it. I might not. But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.

My humble appreciation for those deployed and were supposed to come home soon. Nothing is a bigger kick in the morale junk than to be extended at the last minute. Sorry, dudes/dudettes.

"Military Raises Health Protection Level Globally, Halts Deployments" - "The Defense Department raised its Health Protection Condition level at every military installation globally to the second highest level as the new coronavirus outbreak spreads and more personnel test positive for the COVID-19 virus." - "The Pentagon also ordered all U.S. troops abroad to freeze movements for 60 days, meaning those currently deployed or at home preparing to deploy will stay in their current positions for the duration of the order." - Etc, etc, etc. https://www.airforcemag.com/military-raises-health-protection-level-globally-halts-deployments/

I mean I'm gonna go with the advice of epidemiologists and health security professionals...although I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Just kidding, I stayed the f*ck home. Our economy will recover from a relatively short-duration shutdown to combat a critical health crisis, especially with proper support from the government. What won't recover is people's lives that are lost if we disregard the advice of people who actually know what they're talking about.

Discussion at wings with HPCON levels devolves into “but Charlie indicates a lack of mission effectiveness so we don’t want to do that,” so in some places they have made it Bravo with selective implementation of Charlie provisions. On one hand, I think the innovation if you will is good to do what applies to your location, but also question if leadership is afraid to accurately assess if indeed they are mission effective because of higher up perception.

Phew! So not a total rug pulled from under you, that’s much better to hear. Yes, these moves do not solidify trust. Thank you for clarification. Public needs you back, you need you back and least of all by far regarding our importance (we’re behind the scenes) us box haulers need you back. So much easier than chasing company iron around. Appreciate what you do.

You can listen or you can not, but I’m not synthesizing hours worth of material for your intellectual laziness. I don’t type that much, I’m not nsplayr.

I haven't scoffed at the doctor. I am scoffing at your inability to answer legitimate questions without wholly referencing the thoughts and theories of someone else, and I am able to do it without childish name-calling. Did I not specify that the virus would be impeded when it runs out of people to infect? How exactly is that different from your brilliant discovery of the blatantly obvious fact that it doesn't infect people already exposed. By the way, Herd Immunity isn't exactly a groundbreaking or helpful discovery for those that will cease to exist before it becomes an effectual impediment to the spread. And I'm "sowing panic" by asking questions on an obscure message board for salty old military pilots? Don't you think you're being a little "hypoerbolistic" there, Doc?

So why are CDC and WHO recommending/advising different than him? Also realize that just like pilots, doctors specialize. So I'd rather defer to an infectious disease specialist or an epidemiologist at the WHO or CDC than a general/oncology surgeon.

The biggest challenge seems to be getting a vaccine. As mentioned earlier, even if the mortality rate is in the 2-3%, anybody hospitalized for covid-19 takes a bed that can't be used for someone else that needs it (think heart attack, car accident, stroke, etc). Alternatively, if the spread of the disease is slowed, we as a society build up a herd immunity while staying within our healthcare capacity. The argument for lifting the quarantine/self isolation right now is the same that anti vaxxers use-it's my choice, the rest of society be damned, and the disease isn't too bad.

The Constitution?

I’m going to go ahead and say our constitution doesn’t allow us to implement these Russian and Chinese tactics you want.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll The charts all show exponential increases in death. China's BS numbers notwithstanding, where is it getting better? (BTW, Chinese cell phone companies show 15 million lost subscribers total over the last 6 weeks.) I'm trying to understand the logic behind "This will all blow over" and "Traffic accidents are worse" and other "whatabouts". Wayne Gretsky said something to the effect of "I don't skate to where the puck is, I skate to where it is going to be." Are people just looking at today's numbers and saying "10x more people were killed by snake bites last year, so this is overblown"? We're just getting started. Before this gets better, the rate of increase in death has to stop being exponential, then it has to stop increasing at a constant rate, then it has to plateau, then it has to decrease, then it has to decline to a level that is acceptable by society. So what is it, exactly, that people are referencing as the reason for any of the aforementioned things to occur? A gut feeling that summertime sunshine will kill all the virus particles? A cure is just around the corner? It only kills old people and they'll be gone soon? Washing hands solves it? It magically disappears as in China? I understand the desire to return to "normal", but the train has switched tracks and "normal" is way back thataway. We're not going back. Either we find a cure or run out of people to infect.

SWA just announced Voluntary Leave with partial pay. Details haven’t been disclosed yet, expecting words later in the week. I am so thankful to be a junior guy with them during a time like this. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

It will be interesting. I vote we call this new generation "Coronials" and in thirteen years we'll refer to them as "quaranteens."

Truth is, the 2 years "consensus" is all bullshit. Not a single person knows how this will all pan out. Even if the virus turns soon, will the traveler confidence return quickly? I'd say continue to log the IP/EP time if able, maybe sign up for various schools (safety, etc...) if you have the change. If it turns quickly and you have the means, then a trip to the regionals wouldn't hurt either...though likely not needed. I think it will be as competitive as it ever was, with you having a slight edge for being military.

When this eventually blows over and the politicians boast how “only X amount died/we saved Y amount,” keep an eye on the 2020-2022 suicide rates. I bet the increase dwarfs any “saves” by the draconian steps we’re taking right now.

I think your math is inflated by several digits, but as I premised, what is the cut line? Some, worst case in my opinion, 20,000-30,000 in the U.S., another 50,000 worldwide deaths or a literal stopped economy, both ours and Western Europe? BTW, China is cranking its factories back up and Russia never stopped. We are printing money by the non-metric sh1t ton-load and the stock market is still tanking. Small businesses do not have the reserves to stand more than 1-2 weeks of not getting customers. Even if we opened for business tomorrow, thousands of mom-and-pop's are gone. They'll eventually be replaced assuming there's still an economy to make it worthwhile to try. As I said, I don't have the answer(s). More/gooder medical supplies/meds, yea! Shutting everyone up behind closed doors? Not so sure. And I'm (using the royal "I," not me personally) losing my first, second, fourth, sixth, and seventh amendment rights because somebody said so. Is that us? I'm agin that.

And what does the rate of transmission mean without context? This is a serious problem, but look at data with context and it’s not nearly the Black Death the media is pedaling...we are crushing ourselves for many years to come because we’ve bought into the hysteria and are overreacting in some ways (but certainly reacting appropriately in other ways). Aggressive action needs to be taken in some ways, but to peg our total response to one side of the spectrum is asinine. I think this is part of Brick’s point.

Yeah, I think we can all agree about the obligation piece. My thought is that a) our readiness is better served by a healthy force that has been shielded from this crap by as much isolation or minimum contact as possible and b) that if our readiness is in such a critical state that it can’t take the shock of a three week tactical pause, we’re in an even worse way state than perhaps we suspected previously. I’d be more worried about an adversary’s advancing if this outbreak was largely affecting just the US, but everybody has it. No other country is in much better shape than we are. We need to aggressively confront this thing. A two or three week hard stop now IMHO is better than dragging this on for months and months by not taking drastic steps.

Statistically speaking, the USAF has higher density of fighter availability. Navy is very helo centric when compared to the proportion of non-fighter flying billets in the USAF side. It's all a gamble. On the ARC side, Navy Reserves do not do off the street hiring. USAFR and ANG do. So there's that option as well. Timing and luck in general is a good baseline to start from. Caveat emptor. Good luck.