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Old engineering cliche: All models are inaccurate, some are useful. The data is seriously crappy. Given the apparent wide range of symptoms (asymptomatic all the way to knocking on death's door) and the limited amount of testing that is triaged to more serious cases, the case fatality rate is inflated if you just divide deaths by total verified cases. The lower CFR being reported is (I assume) an estimate based on epidemiological modeling. As an example, if you just take total verified cases in Italy, the CFR is something like 12%. But that same number also results in only a quarter of a percent penetration into the population, New York state is around 2% penetration. Which seems like an insanely low percentage given the Ro estimate of 2.5ish. Even more so when you consider the seasonal flu is around 1.3 and the 1918 pandemic is something like 1.8. For reference, I scrounged around google and found a paper (published years ago) on selective social distancing to control a flu epidemic. Based on a "small town model" of 10k residents and an epidemic meant to be representative of the 1918 flu (natural progression 50% of the population would get it before herd immunity did its thing), they applied a handful of different techniques and managed a maximum reduction down to 15% getting it. They assumed kids and teens were the primary vector so restricted their movements (closed schools and kept kids/teens at home). Would a total societal application get that percentage down to the 1-2% range? Maybe? The information from people who know things is being filtered through communications majors who don't have the aptitude to understand any of it. They are incentivized to freak people out, it sells ads. So take it seriously, but freaking out and destroying everything because we're scared isn't a good idea either.

Shack. 17 million filed for unemployment in the last month. Unverified personally, but read it took nearly 10 months for this to happen during the Great Depression. This is a textbook definition of “cure is worse than the virus.” Measured responses needed, but reckless destruction of the economy, liberty, and the many unintended consequences that follow is not. Large protests are beginning...I hope all of these governors get a very clear reminder of who America is.

Shack. But, but, but... distributed operations! MICAP! Landing on dirt strips and beaches and highways! Pit n Go sorties galore for our four ship of F-35s launching out of some wide spot in the road! How will we get them gas, ammo, parts If we don’t have this capability, etc!? If we don’t have/own/operate/control this platform and OPCON we’ll lose against the (insert scary ultra-capable near peer military force and/or next shithole militia dudes on motorbikes with SA-7s and AKs here) ! Always entertaining what comes out ACC/AFSOC/Army when it comes to this topic - if they could just get the funding and pilots to fly them. Airlift is no different than any other airpower asset - high demand, low density. Every air/ground commander doesn’t need their own, every TF doesn’t need their own; prevalence for misuse is high. For the niche, it works; on the whole, not so much... This one won’t get solved by big blue. USAF will leave airlift to the airlifters instead of dreaming up ways everyone can get their own perfectly tailored airlift support. Chuck

It sounds as if you're saying visiting the local park or Harris Teeter for groceries is tantamount to murder. That's why I say I don't like the direction this has taken.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/a-post-from-germany/ I'm living in Germany right now. I thought some people would be interested to know the civil Rights discussion is not exclusive to the US right now. I would like to accept that isolating the immuno compromised is a doable strategy but the more I run it through in my head, it really isn't. If my wife is immunocompromised, I would still have to go to work, buy groceries, take the kids to school, etc... Her chance of catching the virus is the exact same as mine now. If my probability goes way up because we open the flood gates than so does hers. Furthermore, because normally healthy people will flood the hospitals with what is still a very severe sickness for many younger people, when she does get sick, she will possibly be denied care on the basis of resource availability, all but ensuring her fate. I like many others on here find the erosion of civil rights concerning but as I eluded to earlier, we live in a country that cares more about how that bitch Carol Baskins hid her husband's body than pathogenic precautions. I'm not saying I have a right or wrong moral answer to this, it's a plague. Anyone who is naieve to think we can get through something like this with minimal suffering is wrong. People are going to suffer. Our only choice as a society is who will bear that suffering and how.

I also have an immunocompromised family member, and of course I’m concerned. But, he doesn’t leave the house except for his doc appointments or a walk where he remains well clear of others and doesn’t touch any surfaces. I don’t expect others to curtail their liberties and economic/mental welfare over questionable data and my attachment to an individual (who I love very much)...nobody going to business X or playing in the park will have any direct affect on him, unless he stops giving a shit and starts frequenting the same places while touching surfaces and wiping his hands on his face. In which case, that’s on him, not the other people. God forbid emotional people for one second put this kind of reaction toward auto deaths or heart disease (which are encased by substantially more accurate/valid data). Are we cool with all of our cars being taken away and being told what and how much we’re allowed to eat? Because those two things would save millions of lives, yet we’re not rabble rousing about that. To close the loop on the analogy, I could choose to never travel by road to decrease my chance of death, just as people can choose to self quarantine if they don’t want to be around others. But that’s my choice in a free society, nobody else should be required to curb their liberty from 0600-0630 since that’s when I’ll be driving to work, as I selfishly demand everyone else needs to stay off the road so I’m not threatened with possible vehicular death. Yes, it’s as illogical and anti-liberty as it sounds...

Owning an airplane (bought my first one 11 years ago) is a heartbreaking yet awesome experience. If you have the means, go do it - you only live once. I had a Glasair 1 that I used to fly to work everyday for 2 years. After my Mc-dozen deployment and AD jettison to the ANG, I bought a Bonanza 36 and have had that for 8.5 years. We flew it a ton for a while, then had good years and slow years. My kid is 2 now and she loves flying which is awesome. It's been a total gamechanger for the extended family visits; even before the kid but now it really is. I honestly didn't think I'd ever sell this one. I'm thinking about selling. But just to buy something else. I'm retiring this year and moving back to Idaho next spring and want something a little more back country friendly. 180/185 is the goal, but I'm kicking around all kinds of options. Financially it'll never make sense in the long run; do it because you want to be an airplane family. Drop the cash, don't ever keep track of what it's costing you and go fly every time you feel like it. (My .02 )

Control yourself before you try to control others. If you have a disease or have an immunodeficiency, it’s on you to avoid situations that puts you at risk. Case in point, saying it’s irresponsible for 200 boaters to be on the water while ignoring the hundreds of people at Wal-Mart sorta defeats the argument. I’m more at risk being near the fat fvck hacking in the cereal aisle than I would be if I was on my Bassmaster 3000. Hell, if you’ve never been fishing on a lake before, boaters typically get pissed if you’re closer than a 100 yards from their fishing hole. My bigger point, I can get behind barring gatherings in a place like a movie theatre, or sporting events. When you start telling people they can’t go hiking, by themselves, or can only exercise within a few hundred yards of their house, we’ve officially reached Ludicrous Speed.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Looks like we're flattening it. Hoping we're done with this shit by the middle of May.

I don't think that the nature of business was unhealthy (like it was in 2008 in the mortgage industry). It doesn't make sense (unless you're Apple) to carry billions of dollars in cash, and it certainly isn't feasible for small business to carry enough cash to weather a 2 month (or longer) government mandated shutdown. That businesses are failing isn't the fault of the business....it's because the government made these business unable to operate.

If people did the the right thing in the first place, we wouldn't need all this fucking bullshit!

Here's an excellent article (with super informational links and rabbit holes to run down) by Harvard Business Review (penned Jan 7th this year) that explains a huge part of exactly what your takeaway is. BLUF: companies have been taking on massive amounts of "cheap" debt in the low interest rate environment we've lived in to buy their own stocks back and pay out dividends over reinvesting in R&D, paying higher wages, expanding workforces/manufacturing, etc. Little true "value" has been created, but prices have been driven up as capital flocks to the stock markets to chase returns. Which feeds back to the cycle of PE ratios, debt, and stock prices all increasing without there being much true growth. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. The emperor has no pants, IMHO, and COVID was a catalyst to help show that. Which it did...until the Fed stepped in (and WAYYYY overstepped their mandate) by buying...everything...to prop prices up.

You’ll never get Flag officers into the back of an OV-10. It’s cramped and there are no windows for their aide to lick. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Whoa whoa whoa that hits too close to home 🥺

Same! Ya, that's one of the only documents of substance I've found on the matter. I've chatted with a few guys who've built their own and they've been a great resource. With the amount of grass strips in my area, it may be easier to just call up the owners and ask if I could have access to their runway and attempt to buy land adjacent. So as to keep the train somewhat on the tracks. Latest DAL Crew Resources newsletter is saying they're trying to get our 300 new hires into training in June. We'll see if that comes to fruition or what that means for the future. Talk is we'll publish a displacement bid this week...might just be for the planes we plan on permanently parking (MD88/90 and some of our 717s and 763s).

Really? Because they weren’t saving up for the rainy day that was an unprecedented shutdown of the entire global economy? Sure, this thing has shined a light on some questionable practices (stock buybacks anyone?), but now is not the time to go all Ayn Rand. No business or household could be reasonably expected to be fiscally prepared for what is currently transpiring.

Got my stimulus check today. Honestly I feel like I hit the jackpot being in the military right now. Nice to be working, getting paid, and still get free money on the side.

My (uneducated) takeaway of the economic impact this pandemic has had is that maybe our economy hasn't really been healthy for a while. Lots of businesses over leveraged and carrying too much debt at the expense of short term gains.

That's a negative. That was posted to their official FB page. https://www.facebook.com/121FSpilotrecruiting/ So you should be good with your app, they have not sent out any emails or anything just general info on the fb page.

It's not just that it's their right to do the bad things; it's also their right to have someone else pay for it (be it their employer via health insurance, the government, or the hospital).

As a member of the Teamsters Union before my life in the USAF; this type of attitude is what “Union” organizations routinely sound like. Especially with old heads who’ve seen management screw the workers. Enjoy the bitching, and don’t side with Bobs..

DC update: 2020 UPT Board update: Aspiring Fighter Pilots, first off thank you to the 121+1 of you who applied, we understand the time requirement and take each application very seriously. Current events have changed the timeline. Applications will be reviewed by May and candidates who advance to the next events should be notified in June. We know this create challenges for some of you and we did not consider the modification lightly. Thank you again to all who applied. I hope to see you on my wing soon. GP! Correct MD is on schedule just no meet and greet. Also correct they have all previously submitted apps on file. Stay safe ya’ll!

We've had government try and reign in the heart disease/obesity numbers by instituting things like the sugar-tax and the healthy school lunch programs but instead Americans just complain and say it's their right to drink a big gulp with their hot dog and get diabetes.

The quantity and damage of fire spreading can be seen and objectively measured by all. This isn’t as easy to measure, and some government numbers are looking more like trash daily. So yea, your example does illustrate the root disagreement here: you are taking as Gospel truth worst case assumptions (many of which have already proven false). I’m growing more and more uneasy about limiting my freedoms based on assumptions. If people are actually spreading fire, I’m ok with declaring Marshall law to stop the conflagration before society is consumed. But, are we really there yet? If not (hint, Marshall law not in effect) then expect a healthy hesitancy prior to degrading the bedrock principals of our society.

As a former Compass pilot, I approve this message.

That sucks about having an immuno-compromised wife and forgive my ignorance but what’s stopping her from quarantining herself, while the rest of the world gets on with life? Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Oh we're being serious here?

Lol, who talks like that? Lame.

I think Carole’s first husband is still alive and living off-the-grid in Central America with the $15M in gold and silver he “stashed” in various locations down there.

Since this is getting heated let's all crack a beer and talk about something we can all agree on; like how that fucking bitch Carol Baskins killed her husband!

It is in my state, that’s a fact. And that’s what the governor has been using to drive decisions. 1) Nobody knows how many, but there are people who had it and aren’t counted because they never went to the hospital and got a test. That number is probably a ton higher than people give credit. To this point, it’s fairly accurate on capturing who has died from it, but very inaccurate on who has recovered (i.e. a critical piece of the denominator in this equation). 2) Any swinging dick who dies from anything that even hints of respiratory, etc. is deemed corona as the cause, even without a test/confirmation. 3) People in hospice are dying and being counted in the deaths. Those facts above are enough to highlight how unknown the true rate is. I’m willing to bet our death rate tracking is a hell of a lot more than a 5% error. Or you could put out things like violating 6 ft or walking around public while actively sick gets you fined. Only close business that are unable to operate while also adhering to social distancing. Do that and you have means to throw the book at the idiots while not fucking over the economic and mental welfare of the tens of millions who won’t fuck those things away. Guess I’ll never be a senior leader in big blue, because I certainly don’t fit the mold of lazy leadership that hits the easy button and hides behind a bullshit excuse like “but the masses...”

Your privilege is showing

I am going out of my way to not "whistle past the graveyard" -- we have no idea what will be ultimately impacted by this situation, and I don't at all believe that cargo is immune to the wrecking ball. The 2008 recession hit Purple heavily, and if it weren't for a contract provision that allowed across-the-board reductions in flying hours instead of furloughs, there certainly would have been cargo guys put out on the street, too. My thought is that if this current thing lasts longer than just the spring/early summer, and really does become another great recession, the job losses (or the delays in re-starting jobs) will mean people will be ordering less stuff online, and there will be a lot less cargo that needs to be moved. Just like in '08. So, I think there will be more than enough misery to go around all sectors of the entire industry, unfortunately. I'm strapping in and preparing for the worst.

On the contrary, I think this is a great strategy for a passed over major or a Lt Col cruising to retirement.