Cargo vs Pax aside, this is a great example of timing is everything. I'll never push any of the young guys in the squadron toward the airlines/cargo jobs, as it's not for everyone and certainly has it's ups/downs. That said, I'll do my best to give them the most sound advice I can and answer questions on how much I like/dislike the career...and I really do love my job. I feel the most important piece of advice I give is that if you think you'll ever want to jump to the airlines/cargo, then the earlier you make that decision, the better. Stop fucking opining at a temporary pay cut or whatifing everything. If you don't like it you can always quit, but you can never go back and get a better seniority number. I had a few squadron mates who knew they wanted to do it, but took forever to pull the trigger or kicked the can because they "didn't have time" to fill out the application. For one, the difference is likely keeping my WB FO gig in base vs commuting to NB FO reserve in NYC and only missing furlough by 10 pilots. Even if I don't keep my WB FO gig, I'll be in the top 15% of my seat (read picking my schedules/vacation/days off) vs being in the bottom 10% or commuting. Timing is everything, and of course, better lucky than good. Obviously this assumes you're not near an AGR retirement as that changes the dynamic a bit.
As far as the cargo vs pax, I'm glad my cargo brethren haven't been negative impacted by this situation. I'd happily be at FDX/UPS if they had called first, but I ended up at DAL. Truth is though, we really have no idea where any of these companies will end up and/or what threats lie ahead for each industry...we all have our boogeymen out there. I'll still recommend to go with the first one that calls, THEN if one calls that allows you to live in base, you have a decision to make. Obviously right now that decision is easy, but the pax carriers will come back. Very few things will increase your QOL like living in base at your job...as has been said on here numerous times, it's like having a completely different job. I understand that it's not always a realistic option (keep momma happy), but it's a decision that shouldn't be taken lightly. If you absolutely must live in Hays, KS, then ya, cargo is probably a better choice for their better options for deviate dh. Just realize that anything can change with the next contract or next shift in business plans. Either way, in the long run, you really can't go wrong...hopefully lol. Best of luck to us all.