I thought this was a very well written and researched article and while I have a huge amount of respect for General Elton as both a leader and a person, I don't agree with several points in the article.
1. In their first point, I agree we should continue all efforts to get any remaining US and SIV individuals out of Afghanistan (no brainer). I disagree with the importance/focus on the human rights/humanitarian situation in Afghanistan (they dedicate 3 full pages to it). A good segment of the population either overtly supported the Taliban or passively allowed them to take control (several news reports from Afghanistan post-withdrawal have documented the rural area populace support for the Taliban). People get the government they deserve and quite frankly I don't care if the people of Afghanistan want to live in the stone age.
2. The issue of Afghanistan becoming a competitive space in Great Power competition between us and China (return to the Great Game as it were) is interesting and I'm honestly not sure how it will play out. It's somewhat ironic that the issue of REEs has almost caused a return to industrial age thinking about conflict and critical mineral supply (quest for autarky in some ways by China and now the US). If history informs us about anything involving Afghanistan it's that no foreign power looking to exploit the country fairs well in the end (except maybe the Mongols). I just read an article about a direct legal shipment of pine nuts from Afghanistan to China, I'll be curious to see where the Chinese-Afghan relationship goes. I personally didn't/don't feel that continuing our presence in Afghanistan was worth it to counter China's influence in that part of world. Additionally, none of the infrastructure is currently in place to exploit the REEs in Afghanistan and the security situation in-country continues to be extremely volatile.
3. I would probably agree there will be the possibility that there could be an increased terrorist threat from Afghanistan due to several groups now having increased/uncontested freedom of maneuver. That being said, I think the possibility of Ex-Ops emanating from Afghanistan can be countered by the vast increase in intelligence gathering we've put in place post 9-11. I don't agree with their premise that ISIS-K is/is becoming a terrorist proxy of the Taliban. See article below for the most recent example of why I don't think the two groups will be buddies anytime soon:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/afghanistan-kabul-hospital-bombing-attack-taliban-isis-deaths-2021-11-02/
I think going forward there will increased fighting between the Taliban and ISIS-K, not less.
Several of the policy recommendations going forward are good, especially regarding the CTF piece (always follow the money). I also agree with not recognizing the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan (for a variety of reasons). I think officially recognizing the NRF is probably futile at this point (they've been defeated militarily and I don't know what the long term value in supporting them is).
The focus on revamping/increasing our IO efforts towards China and Pakistan is spot on, but unless the US drastically changes it's approach to IO, its unlikely to happen anytime soon or be effective.
Finally, I believe that a cross-GCC effort towards countering China would absolutely have benefit. Taking this from concept to execution in the real world is very difficult. I've been out of the staff world for going on 3 years now, but in my albeit limited experience, getting the GCCs to cooperate/coordinate/share resources is a royal pain in the ass. They tend to get stovepiped into dealing with the problems specific to their respective AOs, and mostly view the competition for resources as a zero sum game. Coordinating authorities are only of limited use, because they can't actually order anyone to do anything.
Overall though very good, reasoned article, thanks for posting.