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To be clear, a 38% vs 25% is more like 50% more likely to be infected. Just like if it was 10% vs 1% it wouldn’t be 9% - it’d be 1000%.

You might want to gain a cursory understanding of exponential/logistic growth dynamics before you accidentally say something as absurd as this again.

The California Fire Pilots Association (CFPA) has created an updated website with much more information than previously available. Some of which is the path to a career in fire aviation. Here is a link to the careers page: Careers | California Fire Pilots Association (calfirepilots.com) Also, this season a couple of our pilots participated in an episode of the Pilot to Pilot podcast. There is a wealth of knowledge for anyone interested in the topic. CalFire- Fighting Wild Fires by Air by Pilot to Pilot - Aviation Podcast (anchor.fm) Here's a badass photo of my fellow Columbia Air Attack Base tanker pilot Ken, saving some structures near Clear Lake last summer...

And herein lies a major problem in our society today. We live in a complex environment in which none of us can be experts (or even conversant) in all fields. We ALL rely upon other people who have expertise in subjects we do not. Yet when presented with evidence of the limits of our own intellect, a good chunk of us will go offensive and bemoan the “elites” for telling us what we should or shouldn’t do and insist we possess all the knowledge anyone could ever need. We are turning into a nation of 13 year-olds.

Comparing percentages is fraught, but from the study - the actual study, not the article written about it - they indicate that the 25% number had a confidence interval of 18-33 (15% spread) while the 38% number had a confidence interval of 24-53 (29% spread) - double the uncertainty, with substantial overlap. Hence, there is decent uncertainty regarding what the actual probability of spread is given someone's vaccination status. In any case, it makes more sense to look at the numbers themselves, rather than attempting to ratio apples to oranges. To me, this study doesn't indicate very much because there is no indication as to what the relative likelihoods are between people being asymptomatic with the vaccine vs. without it. What's one of the best ways to avoid getting sick? Avoiding someone who you know is sick. If the vaccine makes it much more likely that asymptomatic spread takes place, then the 25% number could be much worse than the 38%. It's like being spiked vs not being spiked. It's helpful to know you're being shot at. Also, see the replication crisis, an ongoing issue within the broader scientific/research realm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis. Biologists are at the higher end of those scientists who are unable to reproduce each others' research.

Not saying the other 5 commanders weren't turds...but at any point is someone (leadership) going to look at the bigger picture here and ask WHY this happening so frequently?

It's astounding people have been tricked into a risk management philosophy for COVID that they do not apply to any other aspects of their life.

Per studies already cited in this thread, the effectiveness of stopping the spread tapers off after about 4 months, depending on the variant it goes as low as completely ineffective, or somewhere around 10% more effective. If that's your standard for a mandate, then I think you're just the type of guy who loves being told what to do.

That's great my man. Seems like you attibuted the entire universe to my very simple statement. I said nothing about COVID. I made zero assumptions as they were all made inside the declarative statement of yours that I responded to. I offered no agreement or disagrement to the assumptions and said only that the statement as made, is objectively false. A very small change (on a percentage basis) in the exponent of a population growth model, has massive implications on the ultimate rate of spread...the end. A sensible post. Congratulations. That's a rare breed in this thread. I agree on all (and it's not in conflict with my previous post).

I think the final call was BS on the FIA, but the true great battle there was Checo holding back Lewis for Max to gain ground. That was fun to watch.

Friend of mine did a Phoenix program with her before she took over command and said the same. Sounds like she was a perfect fit to command in AMC. I firmly believe the only reason why she was fired is due to her poor leadership going viral, which forced senior leader’s hands due to optics. Had it not gone viral, she’d be in command today. Good riddance.

Wow, Toto sure can whine. Lewis seemed more gracious with a little help from his Dad (good on you Dad). A race which was obviously worth watching to the very end.

I don't have to, we have a pandemic that tested the theory for us. We also have countries and states with vastly different vaccination rates and preventing policies and guess what, the spread doesn't correlate. Univariate analysis works in a petri dish, not a society. Two weeks to stop the spread. Masks. Six feet spacing. Pre-travel testing. Vaccines. And according to the figurehead of the American effort, the plan until only recently was to "beat" COVID. Not slow it down, beat it. Do I need to Google the many times he claimed we needed to get to effectively zero cases before we can be humans again? I'll take my cursory understanding of human nature over your cursory understanding of growth dynamics any day. And what was even better, the self righteous pricks (like some in this very thread) who screamed the loudest about the callous disregard for human life and the raw selfishness of those who just wanted to accept COVID, maintain individual freedom, and move on with life, those "leaders" were caught in hair salons, destination weddings, expensive restaurants, public parks, Thanksgiving dinners, and ask manner of other normal human activities at the exact time they were being us for wanting the same. Math is great, but when 2+2=5 maybe you should take another look at the assumptions.

25 vs 38 is a difference of more than 50% Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Read that too. Great quote for a MX commander.

“I knew I wanted a flying job, nothing too dirty or fixing things,” Widman told the Tampa Bay Times in 2005.

Two same. I felt worse from the JJ vaccine (worst chills and shaking I have experienced with any illness) than from having COVID a few months before. Hard pass on booster.

It’s astounding someone has a different opinion than you?

Calling him Brandon is far better than the things they called Trump. It’s harmless fun.

You can just say “Biden”. And if you don’t like him you can just say that.

Yeah, not being implemented as of now. Hopefully Wills moves on to a new job before he does any more damage than he’s already done. This still has nothing to do with your suggestion. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, let’s assess their military capabilities and will to fight by some kids having fun in a square……..vs: Sheesh…..some of you guys should go work for RT.

Some more context to Prozac's remark for those new to NATO; One of the key requirements of NATO membership is you have to have definite borders with no territorial disputes. When you recognize Russia does not want Ukraine to be a member and that continuous incursions cause territorial disputes, you sort of understand why Russia keeps instigating flare ups. Its the same thing with Georgia.

Yes, I've heard that and changed the protocol for morale introduction. "Hello, this is (name) with Air Force MARSRADIO. I have (your first name) on the radio and he would like to talk to you." Do the briefing, etc after that. Confusion is bad enough, but often the first thought from the party on the phone is "What's wrong." I would suggest that anyone who might make a morale call put the phone number 469-718-2300 in their contacts. The majority of calls will come from that number. Also, we now have a more private way to get the patch. Go to https://hfmars.us. You can register as many numbers as desired. The form will ask for all information we need to complete the patch and you will receive a phone code. Provide that code to the operator who will get all the information, including phone number, on his screen so that information does not have to be transmitted over the air. Hope we do better next time. Our members enjoy doing the more personal morale patches. Thanks for the input.

And I’ll add for clarity - that this is caused by the flap-slab interconnect, when rolling the flaps upon configuration for landing. The jet becomes a lot more pitch-sensitivite, and most students have difficulty, at least initially, with the added pitch sensitivity while trying to stay in position. Shack on the rest.

We should stay in NATO, let’s just not confuse it with some awesome military alliance. It’s a bureaucratic means to influence where 90% of the combat capability is provided by one member.

NATO’s always been as much about keeping the Germans under our thumb as it has been about deterring Soviet/Russian aggression. Don’t underestimate the good things that come from keeping virtually all of Europe under one military alliance. A peaceful Western (and now Eastern) Europe is a valid foreign policy goal for the United States and is well worth the money and effort of the last seven decades. I’d even go so far as to argue that a Europe that depends on us for defense is a GOOD thing for the United States. It allows us to continue to dictate the western world order.

Honestly Brick, what good would that do? The Alliance is simply that, a bunch of countries banding together against a common enemy. Do you really think that enemy has gone away? It not only hasn't, but it's gotten worse. Now, what NATO actually does to counter Russian/Putin aggression in the region has yet to be seen. So far it's been a useless war of words (typical NATO). Will the Alliance go to war over Ukraine? Doubtful, no one has a stomach for it anymore; and we know who we can blame for that! You can't make fun of NATO without blaming the US. It's really our "gang" and we have run it for over seven decades. Its failures are our failures.

RQ-4 Block 30 will most likely be retired with the upcoming NDAA. So only one MOB flying RQ-4s outside of test remaining, Grand Forks. Further, the NDAA still requires the enlisted pilot program to exist and actually requires more to be produced. But to go where you might ask? Nowhere! They are not allowing us to fly other platforms and that's not changing anytime soon. So we're in limbo waiting for congress like we have been since 2019 when we first knew it would be coming to an end. Most of us are trying to figure out things for ourselves. Its why I started rushing Guard units in the first place and put together an OTS package if the Guard didn't work out. Everything presented to us as far as options is a "maybe", since we aren't officially done. Just like the Block 30 isn't officially retired. It's a big mess and I hope they release me from AD so I can be doing my own thing by the time they make a decision. Originally, they just figured everyone would commission. But most of us are past 10 years with many beyond 15, not everyone wants to take on another ADSC and go past 20. I'll keep this updated when we find out more in the next few months if anyone is interested.

A great read and I now view Grant in a new light. I would now argue his efforts to keep the union together and prevent a second Civil War are on par with Lincolns efforts leading up to and during the Civil War. To Rescue the Republic: Ulysses S. Grant, the Fragile Union, and the Crisis of 1876

I am sure many have done better than me at UPT and many have also done worse, so FWIW here is the advice from an "old" ANG Captain that got tankers on track select night: You have got to want to be there! I know this sounds stupid, but you would be amazed at how quickly the "new" wears off and people start b1tching about UPT. The same thing happens right before assignment night - people forget just how lucky they are to be flying ANYTHING in the AF. Thus, you get someone literally CRYING IN PUBLIC about getting an A-10 instead of an F-15. WTF!? Anyway, I digress. You must be willing to put in the work. That means generally no Halo marathons, no drunken parties during the week, and no constant jabbering to your girlfriend who is 1200 miles away. At least during the week. I'll get to weekends later. Remember why you are at UPT - to learn to fly AF airplanes. There is only a finite amount of time in the day, and if you don't prioritize it well (see my examples above) you won't do well at UPT. You have to be consistent with your work ethic. There are TONS of things that need to be done on a daily basis. Academic exams, EPQs, stand-up, briefings, plus usually 2 or 3 actual flights per day. Toss a checkride in every few weeks just for fun. In order to keep everything straight, you MUST keep your nose to the grind stone. For me, I spent at least 2 hours a night studying (except Friday and Saturday). I would get home, spend 1-2 hours with the wife (eat dinner, walk the dog, f*ck, whatever) then study for 2 hours, shower, and go to bed at 10pm. Up at 5am and repeat. EVERY NIGHT. For the entire year. There is no shortage of things to study, so you must study/read something every night just to keep up. If not, you will get behind quickly and the pace of UPT is such that once you're in a hole in one area it is very difficult to recover (to the point where you do well vs. just getting by). I will caveat this by saying that you need to study and work hard, but don't panic about it. There were many nights that involved a few beers while chair flying! Gotta keep it real. CHAIR FLY - CHAIR FLY - CHAIR FLY. I can't stress that enough. As the SRO of my class, I was fortunate enough to be one of the 'go-to' guys when folks had trouble. I was always amazed that guys would tell me "Yeah, I know the procedures for a no-flap straight in" but when I would sit them down in my living room and say "Talk me through it - in excruciating detail. I want to know every single thing you are going to do...every switch, radio call, where you're looking, etc." and they could not do it! They would miss steps, forget checklists, or not know the radio calls. If you can't chair fly a mission at ground speed zero, you will never be able to do it at 200 knots with an IP staring you down. As a side note, helping others chair fly is one of the best ways to study, IMHO. If you can teach it to others, it shows you have a command of the information. Again, there is a never ending amoung of information to cover so you had better chair fly every night (esp. in T-1s when you're shooting 6-8 different approaches every flight. Lots of details to remember, and the more you know before you step to the jet the better you will do in the air.) There's an old saying that goes something like "Never let the airplane go somewhere you mind hasn't been to 5 minutes prior". Chair flying gives you the ability to rehearse everything the day prior. Sure, things will go wrong or change, but if you've practiced the "perfect mission" 3-4 times before, you'll be able to focus on the changes and not get wrapped up worrying about the basic profile. The ability to remain calm and excel when the profile changes is one of the things that will set you apart from the rest of the class. Perhaps some of our FAIP mafia on here can comments on that...but in my experience, that was the case. Anyone should be able to fly the profile as briefed. But how people react when the feces hits the rotating oscillator is when you find out how they really perform, IMHO. Balance. You must balance the day to day stress of UPT with your life. For me, I would stop worrying about UPT stuff on Friday after our last event. Party it up at the club, drive to San Antonio, whatever. We'd go boating, travel, or BBQ on Saturdays and Sundays until about 5pm. Then it was time to eat dinner and hit the books again to get ready for Monday. Use the weekends to catch up on your life...spend extra time with the girlfriend/wife/kids, go do whatever you do for fun. The people that never let UPT go soon self-destructed. Those are just a few things you can do to improve your chances. It's true that natural ability plays some part in success, but it's more mental than anything else. You can learn the monkey skills of actually flying the airplane. It's keeping your SA and being able to answer IPs questions that is the real b1tch - and the part of the equation you have direct control over by studying/chair flying. You will never hook a ride for a firm landing [hand-eye stuff] but you certainly will if you bust out of the MOA [brain power stuff]. That's where work ethic, consistency, and attitude come into play. I know some folks reading this will say, "He's full of sh*t! Everyone has GOT to study! Everyone has GOT to chair fly!" You'd be surprised how many people I knew that spent 0 time outside of the flight room studying. And they all got what they deserved on assignment night. Whew. Guess I got off on a rant there. Sorry if I was long winded, but that's my perspective.

Opted for the shot after all... welcome to the team.