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For those eager for No Fly Zones or pushing Putin into a nuclear corner, just stop. If any nation outside of Ukraine pulls a trigger on anything, that is an act of war. If that's your intent, ok, are you ready for the full monty? Air assets are supremely vulnerable. Pretty easy to make them go boom on the ground. And how long does it take to bring in the combined arms to make a real war happen? Putin, for whatever his reasons, has pushed all in on this. To think he won't pull the nuclear trigger if he loses or is cornered by outside nations is willful ignorance. He's not likely to nuke London or Paris or Berlin, but any target in Ukraine or another none-NATO country is vulnerable. Do you really think the West will respond with a nuke when it's not on them? I don't. Powerful megalomaniacs have a history of going scorched earth when they are cornered whether in a bunker in Berlin, a field in Belgium, or a steppe in Ukraine. Toss the Ukrainians all the weapons and logistics they can use and more. Sanction the sh1t out of Putin and comrades, make it hurt financially to them personally and this can stop. Bleed him out and stack his casualties to the moon. He will be bumped off by his own side. If we turn him into a hero/martyr, we get a lot of that for us. Go full John Wayne and it won't end without a full, abrupt halt. With other non-friendly nations watching and planning accordingly.

It's no different than the selective service we still have on the books in our country, or the fact that the US had used conscription to achieve national goals until very recently in our history. Ukraine is facing a fight for it's existence, and called up all the men of military fighting age to defend their country. Freedom isn't free...

Watching Red Dawn while drinking Jack Daniels may have resulted in an overshoot.

The Germans finally woke up: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/27/scholz-germany-pledges-defense-spending-increase-in-shift-in-strategy.html "Germany is committing 100 billion euros ($112.7 billion) to a fund for its armed services and will ramp up its defense spending above 2% of its gross domestic product, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a special session of the Bundestag on Sunday. It has become clear that “we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country, in order to protect our freedom and our democracy,” Scholz said." "Germany could purchase U.S. F-35 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) to replace its ageing Tornado in the role of nuclear sharing, Scholz said."

Not just no but hell no… Let’s go fly around an active conflict as a nonparticipating/quasi referee… one where coordination with either sides air defense is questionable at best, no form of distributed ACO/IFF exists… Basically hope that any Ukrainian with a Stinger or SA-11 can tell the difference between our aircraft and the bad guys. We’ve shot our own airplanes down when we did have TAGS/AGS working…. F all that Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

So long as he doesn't withhold $400m worth of anti-tank weaponry to Zelenskyy in exchange for political dirt, it'll be better than last time around.

Zelensky agrees to negotiate with Russia; Putin puts nuclear forces on alert (msn.com) Sounds like Putin wants an "injury timeout" to slow the tempo and look like he's looking for a peaceful solution. Don't trust him at all.

If the current trend on the ground continues a couple more days, Ukraine should have a return of control to all of Ukraine as preconditions to peace talks. The sanctions from the EU (finally) and the weapons being shipped to Ukraine (finally) should only make Ukraine's position better and better as time goes. Maybe even the US could chip in something eventually when Biden gets back from vacation/cryo treatments. If Putin wants to dig in, he might find himself in serious trouble at home.

Sir, this is a Wendy's.

Also check out ELINT news feed on Twitter. Don’t need to sign up for Twitter as well

Ugh…spending more money (that we don’t have) and potential blood all with the ‘attempt’ (Afghanistan anyone?) at saving Ukraine from Russia? No thanks. As I said, there are people in this country who clearly want a fight, and it’s sad. This isn’t the days of the Cold War, and arguments can be made that all that military build up wasn’t that necessary. And today…it’s definitely not necessary. It’s about time we focused on our own issues as home—Ukraine is a great distraction. Not saying it’s not real, just not our problem. Oh and I was always against the government restrictions on its citizens due to COVID. Also, when the Ukraine government ordered that their adult males could not leave the country, I became less supportive of their “freedom” than before. I have always been against conscription—it’s literally slavery.

I admire your vigor but…. How’s the hangover this morning?

We need India to speak up, they are a formidable force that has been a foil to both Russia and China.

Also, video and other reports of Russian armor stopped and out of fuel. As has been noted Logistics wins wars and it appears Putin's general seriously underestimated the pace and size of this conflict. While he is approaching on numerous fronts I would think that greatly complicates his logistical trail. Russia has seriously under performed and others have noted they likely would not fair well in a Fulda Gap conflict with NATO. Other reports show captured Russian soldiers who were conscripts and were told they were going on an exercise. They could have been playing to the camera but they certainly seemed dismayed and distraught. The sanctions are already hitting Putin and Russians. Many reports of Russians rushing to ATM machines and businesses asking to be paid in dollars. With Putin increasing his alert nuclear status and his invasion turning into a nut roll, what options does he have. Some have suggested he is mentally altered in the past year, with that in mind I hope we (the west), provide an obvious off ramp that stops his form being forced into a corner.

Source is a pilot in the sister squadron flying missions in the Ukrainian AF. I don’t have the inside scoop but asking a few other sources, I don’t doubt the veracity of the source. You got some other info? Or are you one of those fighter pilots that just has all knowing ever present SA on all topics at all times?

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I get it, it's a high risk COA but here's the coordination with Russia: Fuck off, don't fly inside of these coordinates or you will be fired on. What Would Putin Do? WWPD - he would be aggressive and bold because he knows his opponents in Western capitols have been timid, we know that equation has of late been leading to him pushing us around. F that anymore. Like all bullies, once he gets a bloody nose I think his bluster will fade and his power wane. Call me irresponsible but they need to learn a lesson, losing an air battle, being bested by the West, intimidated and cowed is the best thing for peace and stability right now, they (the Russians) need to lose and be pushed back. We're hand wringing and worrying about things going wrong, well they've gone almost as wrong as they can, it's time to do something different. We develop ROE and use all our technological means to avoid blue on blue, it's risky but the risk of him winning is unacceptable. Easy for me to say at 0' and 0 KIAS but it's true. Good work boys - NKAWTG.

I've been watching adsbexchange for the past few days and there's been multiple tankers around here 24/7 it seems (much credit to the mobility crews and mx). current screengrab shows 3x -135s and 1x -10 (with a NATO AWACS in the bottom right):

No fly zone? https://www.theblaze.com/news/adam-kinzinger-no-fly-zone-ukraine Not sure how viable this is with where the war is now, no open source on far the extent of Russian AF air superiority extends into Western Ukraine but... if the Russian AF has not established CAPs (sustained) over the Western portion of Ukraine, could this be a high risk COA to establish a redoubt or sanctuary from which Ukraine can continue gather forces, receive aid from air and land connections, etc... Gather up the team, not exactly under NATO but NATO members and execute in STRONG numbers... Put Pat 3 batteries on the other side of the border with WEZ rings extending into Western Ukraine and establish a mission with UN blessing (don't care if Russia has the Sec Council chair right now), have an overwhelming fighter advantage, thinking keeping 20-30 fast movers on station at all times with alert backup at the ready, tankers flying 24/7 over Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc... US, UK, Poland, French, Italy, Aussies... no air to ground work just a missile launching phalanx if any Russian aircraft crosses this longitude line... if we wanna do something, do it Three of the nations I volunteered for this are nuclear powers, is Russia gonna go nuclear against three other nuclear powers? Doubt it. It has risk but letting him win here is riskier.

I really want this to be true because this is some gangster-ass shit from a president

The old timers will follow this, new guys will throw spears at me, but hear me out! What if the Ghost of Kiev is actually a special ops fighter pilot? You know, your average Delta Force F-22 patch, finally going toe to toe with the Ruskies? Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves.

And yet that aid, to include weapons, got there. And Russia didn't take any parts of Ukraine then. Unlike the last time Biden was point man for Ukraine and that administration sent blankets. That cost Ukraine Crimea. So far, Biden's given the ok to "a limited incursion." As well as cashing various 10% checks payable to "the big guy" from Hunter's Ukrainian adventures. So...I'll take what are anti-tank rounds for a $1000 over What are blankies for $500. Now do Afghanistan withdrawal planning...

No point in going Point by point because this doesn’t matter. I’ll be Mulder, you can be Scully, and we’ll drink 10 beers about it someday. But speaking of gullibility, I gotta dip out for a bit to extend my car’s warranty on my way to a guided Bigfoot sighting expedition. Great deal!

Cyrano. Very good date movie (or if you really, really like Broadway musicals...not that there's anything wrong with that...) Advance spoilers: It's a musical. It's a tearjerker. Both were strikes I wasn't looking forward to, but I promised CinCHouse that I would take her. Outstanding movie and Peter Dinklage acted his ass off. No regrets.

Only about 1000 times better. And it’s a lot of good natured entertainment for the rest of us.

I can confirm. I was in the back seat of the mishap jet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-tweet-going-toe-toe-vladimir-putin-resurfaces-ukraine-crisis-russia-1681266%3Famp%3D1

I'm not eager for it but I know it is the most feasible thing we can do to forestall & prevent defeat in this conflict and prove to the other aggressive authoritarian power in the East that if they try aggression, we will engage and not just leave our ally to their fate. Honestly, why have we been spending billions and billions of dollars into this technology and weapons systems then like 22, 35, etc…? To win the high end fight, we have envisioned the high end fight being in another theater mainly but destiny being the fickle woman she it, decided it would be in Europe versus our old adversary rather than our new one we would be tested. We have the means, we have an ally under attack and we have a dangerous moment. We have to prove to the authoritarian systems in the East and their allies that we will fight back, we will not allow our allies and those who aspire to join our systems, alliances and our way of life to be picked off one at a time.

His source is ENJJPT students who heard it from a friend of a friend of a friend. Yes, the entire Ghost story was made up by a gamer on Twitter. It's based on a video game called Ace Combat. No, I'm a fighter pilot with a bit of common sense and a healthy dose of skepticism. Given what you know about the MiG-29 and the Russian Air Force, did such a story really ever make sense? Do you really think a retired Su-27 pilot hopped in a MiG-29 and suddenly had global SA in such an environment and accounted for 69% of the kills? Stop being so gullible.

For those who want a bit more depth here is a crowd sourced real time order of battle map. Incidents are crosslinked with video and social media reports: https://liveuamap.com/ Another interesting but far less organized source is Snap Map I don't use Snap Chat but this site allows you to click on a particular area and individual snaps the residents are postings. Snapchat is obviously more focused on the younger crowd. I poked around yesterday and there were numerous posts from teenagers who fully grasp what is happening.

Edward Snowden is the actual definition of a treasonous sack of shit.

Nothing new.

Yes, the tankers are quite busy.

Could have been better ♟️ For all the Snowden defenders: https://nypost.com/2020/11/02/edward-snowden-shows-his-true-colors-by-applying-for-russian-citizenship/ https://www.china.org.cn/world/2022-02/16/content_78051824.htm https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/02/11/nothing-more-grotesque-media-pushing-war-says-edward-snowden Quick recap: 2013: Snowden steals secrets from the NSA. Goes to hide in Russia for "sanctuary" until he can get a fair trial or some such. 2014: Russia invades eastern Ukraine. 2021/2: Snowden downplays potential for war in Ukraine. 2022: Russia full-scale attacks Ukraine. 👍

No.

Kid, you need to go back to strategy and international relations class. At a most basic level, it can't be a lawful military strike unless the strike originates from, and is entirely conducted by Ukrainians. If they do it, I'm all for it. However, if a nuclear power assassinates (that's the word we use when discussing the intentional targeting a nation's leader by another non-belligerent nation) the leader of another nuclear power, all rational and reasoned arguments concerning the likely response are out the window. Beyond that, such a strike, regardless of it's success, by any of the non-belligerents in this event would only serve to validate all of Putin's propaganda. That then gives him (if he survives) or his replacement all the more validation for expanding what they would see as defensive and necessary combat operations...perhaps, though unlikely, with nuclear weapons. No possible win with an overt decapitation strike in this case. Chess, not checkers.

Looks like the Russian Army doesn't have Pizza Huts, Burger Kings, and or a Green Bean inside their wire. Looks like a cabbage and borsch diet at the DFAC.

The importance of the Ghost of Kyiv isnt to us but to the Ukranian people. Its a symbol of hope in a desperate time and despite how weak the veracity of the story is, its important for the people of Ukraine, if you support them, to keep it alive. The very idea of the Ghost of Kyiv is motivating its citizens to perform extraordinary merits that really outweigh the heroics of the Ghost of Kyiv is said to have accomplished.

Posted on Instagram, former Thunderbird Pilot/Eagle guy Dozen Aldridge says that he has reliable first hand sources that say the “Ghost of Kyiv” was Colonel Olaksanser “Grey Wolf” Oksanchenko. Retired former Ukrainian SU-27 demo pilot that came out of retirement for the war. Unknown veracity of any of that and I haven’t personally reviewed the HUD tapes or 781’s so scoff away.

Dan Crenshaw maybe?

Got the email today. Palace Chase approved! Request 6 months and they approved it for 4 months. All-in-all my app was in the system for a little over 5 months and at SAFPC for 6 weeks. Best of luck!

Ughhh. Can we not turn this into another political pissing contest. I understand why many here aren’t enamored with Biden. I even get the sentiment that he projects a less than strong image. Go ahead and criticize all you want. It’s a free country. It’s certainly not treasonous to criticize a sitting or former president. What IS troubling to me are the number of people seemingly willing to get down on their knees and fondle Putin’s balls in order to make their point. At that point, you’ve crossed a line and are actively making your country look weak while making Russia look strong. Putin is not playing chess. He’s essentially smashed the chess board into a thousand pieces. I’m tired of hearing how smart he is and how he’s out maneuvered the West when all he’s really done is make Russia a pariah state that’s even more of a joke than it already was.

Posting a cartoon by Gary Varvel, an American cartoonist at the Indianapolis Star cartoonist for 24 years who was inducted into the Indiana Journalism Hall of Fame and won the Robert F. Kennedy Journalism Award is posting propaganda? UFB. Time to invoke martial law, suspend the first amendment and post nothing but support for our dear leader.

Here are some interesting things I've picked up working heavily in NATO/Europe. Really opened my aperture for how I see the world. 1.) Europeans do not see the US as the winners of WW2. They believe WW2 was largely won by the time the US entered and US entry just accelerated the end. They view the war through the cost paid to attain victory and the majority of those costs were paid by the UK and the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet Union. They do recognize that the US was in a prime position to delineate peace outcomes though; see our earlier conversation about world leadership. 2.) Russia and many FSUs don't believe Russia lost the Cold War. They believe the Cold War ended mutually after Gorbachev initiated a series of actions to approach Bush about de-escalation because Gorbachev realized the Cold War was upsetting the global order. They literally cast their own leader as the hero, and see the entire affair as a draw. The US and NATO betrayed these outcomes when they began rapidly expanding NATO eastward despite promises they would not. 3.) About half of senior German officers in the German armed forces were East German officers when they joined. They usually came from astute, pro party families to attain this position and as such they largely see the world through Russia's lens and not ours. They are larger dissenters in most situations than other FSUs, who's entry into NATO was under different circumstances. 4.) There are LOTS of people in the world who DO NOT WANT to live in a democracy. This is really hard for us to grasp as it's such a central value to us we can't see how anyone wouldn't want it. But you have to imagine first, how they are educated, then second, think for a minute: when they turn on American cable news, what do they see? BLM protest burning cars, rioting, looting stores. The January 6th riots taking over the US capital. Extremely unpopular leaders like Trump and Biden winning elections. Thats how they see Democracy, and they legitimately believe Democratic states are filled with political unrest, violence and instability. They believe a strong authoritarian government is necessary to enforce rule of law. 5.) The Cold War has been over almost as long as the Cold War lasted now yet we still continue to frame our foreign policy through it's echos. One thing I have difficulty explaining to civilian family and friends is the geopolitical nuance in war and how it's never clearly black or white but usually lots of grey. But people want easy answers because they want to know "who to support, who's the good guys?" Of course it's never clearly simple and in war good guys are rare. Good sides are rarer because states by nature do not have morality, just interests. That's something our US education system doesn't teach in enough depth for people to really comprehend the underlying levels of it. On another note, Tulsi Gabbard made a tweet today that she believes war could have possibly been avoided if the US agreed to address Russia's concerns about Ukrainian entry into NATO. This tweet was largely condemned by pundits which I think is a shame because I think she is right. Historically it's been European tyrants invading Russia. Not Russian tyrants invading Europe. And until we recognize that Russia doesn't want another Hittler or Napolean getting within 60nm of Moscow we probably are going to struggle to understand their interests and foreign policy position.

@GearDown My PC application was disapproved at SAFPC and it took almost exactly 3 months total from the time time I clicked submit in vMPF to the disapproval email arriving. I had requested ~14 months off ADSC and had disapproval recommendations all the way up due to "acute need for rated manning." If you are requesting less than 6 months and have some approvals, your app won't go to SAFPC and I've been told they take 40-80 days for AFPC to adjudicate. SAFPC does have a board that meets and reviews all apps. I believe they meeting every ~2 weeks, but they prep your documents and sometimes call your reserve sq/cc with questions prior to the board. So, it is possible (worst case) that your app would arrive at SAFPC the week of the board, but not be ready for the board to view.