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Plot twist: Pyongyang nukes Moscow off the map to demonstrate their capabilities and deeply rooted care for human rights. They open their borders, reunify as a United Korea where Kim is elected as the new country’s first President, and become a staunch ally of the west…all from a plan developed by now President-elect Rodman. China becomes a champion for workers rights and joins NATO, Hillary runs for President and loses again, and the sun sets on a peaceful Earth. Scene.

He definitely miscalculated and I think that further demonstrates a weakness in the current Russian military. They have some very sophisticated equipment but thus far have very poorly integrated it into an effective combined arms force. We had an interesting project in war college where we were each assigned a country for a deep dive, I got Russia. Eventually I was able to travel to Russia and visit several cities and ministries including the FSB and varies branches of the Russian military. The project was not meant to develop a military intel assessment, rather broader "Freakanomics" approach that looked at economic/environmental/socioeconomic factors impacting the country and their ability to build and field a military force. One of the biggest surprises to me was the impact of the declining population in Russia. I won't regurgitate all of the numbers here but a quick snapshot form recent years illustrates their dilemma: The current birth rate for Russia in 2022 is 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021. The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020. The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019. The birth rate for Russia in 2019 was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018. Russia conscripts approximately 400,000 (previously it was 700,000), military age males each year for a 12 month term. Conscription is enormously unpopular in Russia because conscripts notoriously are subject to ill-treatment, malnutrition, and other abuse. Popular discontent with the treatment of conscripts reached new heights in the mid-1990s, when Russia's military leadership sent poorly prepared conscripts to fight in the war in Chechnya. Thousands of conscripts died. The punch line is Russia currently has approximately 1.4 million live births each year with of course half being women. That leaves 700,000 males to draw from each year. With normal disqualification issues in a population distribution they rapidly approach the point where they don't produce enough males each year to sustain this system. This is not to say Russia does not have a powerful military, but it does place some context on just how stretched they might be at the moment and I would argue losing people is far more impactful than equipment at this point.

I'm surely scratching my head that people focusing on non-workable, affordable, or truly capable, renewable fuel sources somehow believe this strengthens their cause. The current administration CAUSED the dependency on outside nations for fuel. To now show that as your, "see, see, this is what we are trying to show you!" is a joke. We have the ability to be energy independent and an exporter. We actually were that way until the current clown show took office. We have oil, natural gas, coal and plenty of it. We just are not using any of it and smacking those that produce it. Let's get the actual "adults" back in the room and get the domestic fuel sources going again. In other news, the Valkyries out of Lakenheath didn't take long to put the term, "Have Gun, Will Travel" to use. Forward deployed with almost all their toys.

I disagree on this idea that he is acting in the best interests of Russia. This is a dude who went from zero to billionaire, for doing what exactly? Nothing.This is critical when deciding what to do with Ukraine. There is a large difference between a man who is out for himself and a man who is out for his people. Putin is not out for the Russian people. Ukraine posed zero threat to the Russian people. ing zero. This isn't Russia acting in Russia's interests, because the Russian people can't act in their own interests because they've been oppressed for god knows how long being force fed state run TV. Obama didn't isolate Russia, the Russian autocracy isolated Russia to preserve its own chokehold over the people. This is in the dictator playbook. You say zero interest to save Ukraine. I disagree. Ukraine is a hunk of land far far away, but perceptions matter in this world. Now we have a civilized country fighting for its freedom. We spent so much effort trying to build Iraq and Afghanistan from scratch, and the idea that we shouldn't care about a near freedom getting toppled is no bueno. We care. We're just questioning our methods do to previous performance and the players involved, and we are tip toeing, which is good, rather than reaching for the sledge hammer instantly. I do NOT think we should set up a no fly zone due to the risk of WW3, but if the Ukrainian's want anti-air missiles, coming right up. In this situation, it matters not only that the Russians are beat, but WHO beats them. They NEED to be beaten by the UKRANIANS for this to work, so that this cannot be spun as "American f*cked around in Russia's interests". No, Russia f*cked around in Ukraine's interests, and paid dearly for it. People aren't clamoring for war, they are clamoring to stand up to bullies. Yes, it's real scary to think that an old dude (i.e. life almost over, willing to take more risks because he only gives a shit about himself) has a nuke button. But the Ukrainian people have the right to fight for their freedom. And we had better encourage it just as we have been doing. You cannot pick and chose when to be on the side of a free people just because of your strategic interests. The people have a right to govern themselves, always. Death on our feet over life on our knees, always. If Putin nukes something over Ukraine well than he had already lost his mind and so be it, it was a matter of time anyways than. Moscow will get wiped off the face of the earth, people will die, and the world will cycle on.

You're shitting us right? Our energy policy is totally about politics. it shouldn't be but, in the US everything is politics now. We still have decades and decades of energy in the ground under the US. The newest Nuclear technology is the cleanest and most green energy source we have available right now, but sadly it's out of fashion.

I really hope you're right, but I think the last 24 hours have shown that Putin is switching strategies and is no longer trying to minimize civilian deaths. He's shelling major cities with absolutely zero military value other than avoiding urban combat. But, even with that as an excuse, that's a poor one as history has shown that shelled cities are just as defend-able as intact ones. That does not mean that nukes are a logical next step, but the war going poorly for him does not mean the war will continue to go relatively well for Ukrainian citizens. On the contrary, the worse the war goes for Putin, the worse it is going to get. This is an ego driven war and a totalitarian leader with an ego in a losing war is a dangerous thing.

lol glad you're not making decisions.

All the world is seeing is that US security assurances aren't worth the paper they are written on. If I'm Iran, North Korea, Israel, Pakistan...I'm clutching my nukes with both hands. Because they provide more security than a US assurance of sovereignty.

understanding the "why" behind putin's moves is not "signing his praises". he's a bad dude for sure. he is acting rationally in what HE thinks the best interest of Russia are. so many in the media dismiss him as "crazy", but in my opinion he's anything but crazy. he's been warning us and telling us what HIS red lines are and the west hasn't listened. we have zero interest in getting involved in WW3 to "save" ukraine. zero. it's scary to see how many Americans are clamoring for war when they have no idea how this conflict came into be. American foreign policy has been a total disaster since Korea. we need to sit this one out.

For anyone else who finds what Scott Ritter has to say “interesting”, please note he currently pens opinion pieces for RT, Russia’s state propaganda network. That network currently claims there’s no invasion of Ukraine going on right now cause videos of Ukrainian children being ripped apart by Russian high explosives would be bad for Putin’s image. Furthermore, he was arrested and convicted in a child sex sting operation and served time in prison. Personally I’m not gonna use a guy who’s actually been convicted trying to get his rocks off with kids as a source for anything regardless of how intelligent they are on a given topic but you do you.

A couple of years ago I did an intentional search for nails made in the USA. At the time there was one remaining manufacturer that supposedly made nails in the US. I can't say my search was 100% exhaustive, but it made me do a similar search on other manufactured products and it confirmed how little we produce here at home. For many items we source the raw material and send it to China (or elsewhere) to have it fabricated and sent back. Pretty shocking how little we actually make and that it's cheaper to send product to China and back rather than make it here. I know I'm unique here in the US, but having grown up in Taiwan it worries me how serious the threat really is to one of the few young democracies in the world. Taiwanese have grown from an autocratic more or less dictatorship (KMT run and controlled) while I was there (1970-1980) into a fully functioning democracy fighting for it's very existence in a world that fails to recognize them as an independent state. General CKS basically doomed Taiwan to the current situation by being so dogmatic that he was the ruler of all of China when the UN in the early 1970s chose the CCP as the official Chinese government.

i mean it sounded dumb enough to be true 🙂

Excellent analysis. Exactly what I was worried about and why I didn't want to get overly optimistic.

Thanks man, got the flights changed! Hopefully the testing isn't too painful. That link I posted earlier had a lot of good info on what to expect though. I'm looking forward to meeting new people the most though.

It’s okay! He’s a democrat. It’s allowed. Along with his blatant past racist statements.

Anyone have any tips for MFS? Not quite sure what to expect. I also have LASIK, so looks like I need to get back into DTS and change my flights around so I'm leaving after 1400. Additionally, I didn't get any info in my RIP about the course itself and the ETCA website didn't work, so here's a link that may help some people out: https://www.afrl.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Fact-Sheet-Display/Article/2336839/usafsam-fci-medical-flight-screening/

This is a joke, right? “John Kerry fears Russia-Ukraine war will distract from climate change” https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kerry-russia-ukraine-war-climate-change

I was questioning the effectiveness of that decision. The Russians are going to win that war of attrition no matter what. Better to spend the money on MANPADS, even if it takes 3 shots to hit something.

Having been to both Madrid and Chicago, I'd exchange them in a heartbeat. Shipping might be cost prohibitive, however...

I can’t see any country not try to develop or attain nuclear weapons. It seems that is the only deterrent from being attacked by another nuclear power.

Do you believe in the nuclear umbrella? I realize Ukraine isn’t in it.

We play our role. We send assistance, enact trade and financial pain, isolate, and gather allies to do the same. We send the message that America will do anything for freedom and we will help, but we probably won't do that. Then tell the rest of russia, the pain stops when Putin is gone, like, "Sorry, we'd love to work with you and do trade and all, but we can't work with a country that invades and is led by a bully."

I think he miscalculated Ukraine's motivation of its people, and especially it’s president. I’m guessing he figured after a day or two of fighting the president would flee, government collapse, and everyone just give up. Russia has lots of armor in storage to replace its losses. While their Air Force has decent numbers on paper their FMC status is questionable at best. (I have no behind the scenes knowledge, just open source I have seen in the past) They degraded the Ukraine Air Force in the opening rounds, and Russian aircraft continued to fall from the skies via SAMs and Stingers. With a partially conscript army it’s easier to replace a couple thousand bodies than several hundred aircraft. Might as well save the jets in case this escalates and he needs to defend the boarders, and go old school, sacrifice the bodies, use artillery and long range missiles.

He is balancing the problem of not turning an arm wrestling match with Russia into a fight to the death between two nuclear powers. Nobody thinks Ukraine is expendable, but it needs to be in the history books that Ukraine fought to not be a part of Russia. Not that the Americans fought for Ukraine to not be a part of Russia. It is a distinct difference that matters, even tho it shouldn't. If America enters the fight, Putin will enter an entire new mode of aggression and destruction. If you think he cannot stand to be pushed back from Ukraine by Ukrainians, well he most definitely will not stand for the US being the ones to beat him back out of Ukraine.

Copy you think this isn’t our fight and the Ukraine is expendable. I’ll ask the question you’ve refused to answer so far. What’s the line?

PREVENT escalation? let me get this straight...you think 2 squadrons of vipers and a b-1 bombing russian forces would "prevent" escalation? jesus dude. putin is acting in the best interest of russia based on how he sees the world. it is what it is. the whole "fighting for ukranian freedom" argument does not justify US involvement in a war. give the ukranians weapons sure, but for fucks sake no direct US involvement.

I think his conventional forces are now stretched very thin. I've read reports of 200,000 troops dedicated to this effort. Any Putin attacks into Western Europe would open a front I am not sure he can defend at this point. I remain dumbfounded at how poorly his forces and equipment have performed. Mostly I am SHOCKED at how he has failed to integrated his air and land forces, they are almost operating as two independent operations. As we all know very well, airpower used properly in close alignment with ground forces is a huge asymmetrical advantage. It is almost as if he assumed his maneuver elements would be fully support be rotary wing and the Stingers have humbled that advantage.

This thought process (the one you are describing of other Americans) is endemic of our habit of framing everything under a banner moral interventionalism. Everyone is looking for "who is the good guy" and "who is the bad guy" and very few people fail to see outside the black and white that in war 99% of people are grey. Know thy enemy is a basic intellectual principal of war but so many people would rather resort to the academically lazy solution of just presuming the enemy is irrational. How does a person who lacks ration and reason get and maintain power of an enormous nuclear nation state? Just doesn't make sense....

I agree. He's been pretty brilliant as far as achieving his goals in his role. He seemed to be 2 steps ahead of everyone else the whole way. What I cant figure out is what his own intel on his own forces was. Did he know he could barely move his army 400 miles? Did he know his logistics were that poor? Or is this all part of his ruse to draw in more nations? Russia is taking heavy losses we needed to step up...oh btw you were funneling arms in through Poland so thats mine now? The other big question is what is victory for him at this point? He is interested in marking his legacy. If he concedes and only takes a chunk of Ukraine and goes home, but the costs was isolating Russia from the global economy worth it? No statues of himself for that. If he is defeated in Ukraine and goes home then hes a total failure. At this point the only glimpse of a victory would be inflicting as much damage as he can on his way out. I dont see how he or Russia recovers.

I will say this about Adam. I have personal knowledge that he was extraordinarily instrumental to the evacuation of Americans and Afghan allies back in August and September. He has my respect for that.

I wouldn't fault Kinzinger for all his antics - if they were truly based upon his political convictions and/or the convictions of his constituents. But it seems clear that at least a portion of his actions are driven by pure political gamesmanship. A game which he appears to be terrible at. There was talk of him running for Governor of IL, or a Senator once his district got carved-up from underneath him. Both those possibilities were floated for awhile, and then disappeared. Ostensibly so Kinzinger could focus on his "Country First" PAC, but I have to assume the reality is the IL Republican party shut the door on Kinzinger for any statewide offices. Maybe he'll get some traction as a talking head for CNN or elsewhere. I assume a position as a lobbyist is a possibility, as seems the norm for other ex-congress persons. Ultimately though, I get the impression Kinzinger thought he had an opportunity to play his hand and rocket to the top of the political heap. Instead, he proved to be awful card player, and got spit out the other side with nothing to show for it. In retrospect, not surprising for a dude who comes on a message board and immediately doxxes himself as a congressman (hard to be more self-centered than making your username "congressman.")

Calm down Adam.

rep kinzinger is a total JOKE looking forward to him being defeated

yes they are you should delay submitting your apps for a few more years /s

so i guess covid's over huh? midterms coming up and a coordinated dropping of mask mandates, vax cards, vax mandates, etc so scientific!

Your dedication is admirable, but realistically unless you get a DP on your PRF, the statistical chance is in the low single digits. Talk to your SR, they should be honest with you about their allocation numbers. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

To be honest, I couldn’t tell you. I submitted for personal hardship with a lengthy explanation of the hardship, and it was denied. I wrote one line about C-17s being overmanned and it’d help the AF balance manning and it was approved

Using capital letters really lends credibility to your arguments. You're a huge Paul Harvey fan too, aren't you? Is your Facebook page filled with a bunch of stupid shít that ends with "I bet I can't get 5 followers to share this!" while containing exactly zero percent correct information? How many people out there claim you as their senile uncle who sends them email forwards about Q-Anon? 😂 By whom? Seriously, I'm curious who you think he's running against.

Copy, you believe nuclear weapons are evil and we as mankind should eliminate them. Sorry flea, thats a utopian wish.

Flea, did the DIME model work for Georgia or Crimea? Discuss.