100% agreement with you there! You're talking to the guy that has never been full time since getting hired at the airlines (other than deployments/spinup) and often has to "shift" availability due to greenslips lol. The military once left me high and dry and it forever changed my mindset wrt the military and my priorities. Though I don't think probation is that high threat, for the reasons you stated, I recommend to all my guys that they just do the year and finish probation. Cheap insurance. Most listen, some don't *shrug*....team Sociald is taken care of!
But to your point, I should have used "air quotes" when I said needed. The dudes I was referencing, were filling WG and OG/CC roles and I think they really didn't want to do those jobs as part timers (and/or commute). The previous guys were moving to a star or retiring, so the spots were being vacated one way or another. In the ANG there are issues with filing control grades or losing them. Unfilled controlled grades can quickly get snagged and moved to other groups on base and/or other wings within the state. Once they're gone, it's tough to get them back. Delaying that control grade may mean adding years get to your retirement. Considering these guys both had a decent amount of tech time (read...nice retirement between mil/tech) and are in their late 40s, I'm guessing it was worth the relatively small gamble for them. But yes, for the younger guys...100% protect your airline gig. The military will always be there and can wait. AGR spots will be opening up soon as other guys get hired at the airlines lol.