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Not saying you did, saying do we...as in the U.S. government, view it as an attack on the U.S. What I am trying to say is what qualifies as an attack on "us"? Reacquiring Taiwan requires a lot of moving pieces that will happen VERY quickly. If they believe we will respond (our official policy was ambiguous until Uncle Joe said we would defend Taiwan), then do you think they wait to go all in? The longer they wait the more risk they accept. We have shooters in place under the water tonight, will they go after our subs at the start, will they target Guam at the start, will they go after space from the start, will they use cyber against our bases AND ALLIES forward at the start and will they use cyber against the U.S. home land? Any one of those could be considered an attack on "us." Elections have consequences, Bill Clinton set the tone and had the chance to steer the ship, instead he let is run with the tide, even though he knew there was danger. “One of the biggest question marks of the 21st century is the path China will take. Will China emerge as a partner — or an adversary?” (Bill Clinton May 2000). It doesn't help that the Friedman's of the world came into vogue in U.S. power circles (I debated the guy once, he is an ARROGANT ASS). Regardless, there is a HUGE difference between policies that balance U.S. economic development and folks outright sharing military tactics. Me either brother....me either. I have been ringing the warning bell for a long time. During both tours in the five sided funny farm I was a zealot for funding and preparation for China. I actually have a picture of me and SECDEF Gates shaking hands on my wall, I wanted to punch him when we took the picture. I understood his desire to fix the horrible issues we were having in Iraq, but he did it buy gutting the Air Force and at the expense of preparing for the fight with China, a fight that will take MANY more lives and treasure. The picture hangs on my wall not as a prize but as a reminder that I failed to make more of a difference on that topic. We all have our flaws...

Pilot is OK.

Still some good work getting done when possible. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-says-it-killed-al-shabaab-co-founder-2022-10-03/ VEOs on a continent as large and diverse as Africa are going to exist. TBH I’m a fan of relatively minimal force being used in order to support friendly governments and “mow the grass” when it comes to the very worst guys. Otherwise these dudes don’t pose that great of a threat to the US and I don’t think we should spend a ton of brain bites opposing them. Over-the-horizon intel collect with very occasional strikes or raids is not a bad strategy for an AOR that’s at absolute maximum 4th in importance right now. Continued economic development in Africa is the biggest thing that would move the needle toward relative peace and stability - let’s facilitate that whenever possible.

His wheel is turning but the hamster is dead.

The problem with ignoring a Chinese attempt to take over Taiwan is the same potential problem with ignoring a Russian takeover of Ukraine. Operating under the assumption that the hostilities will end at that point is dangerous. By the time you realize your own takeover was part of the plan, your adversary could be in a much more capable position. I also concede that your adversary might end up in a much weaker position as well. Russia is a good example of that. Waiting for their position as the indisputable bad guy before dumping advanced weaponry and training on Ukraine has allowed us to maintain the high ground while systematically slaughtering the Russian military, without a single American life lost. However, I would be shocked if that was a premeditated plan. The West seems to bumble through all foreign interactions at this point. What China does over the next few years is going to determine everything. As Cleared Hot showed, they have put themselves into an economic and demographic catastrophe. If it is even possible to fix that, it will be a delicate operation. Extending themselves by attacking Taiwan would probably not help. But they are better long-term thinkers than we, so who knows?

If students are actually flying additional flights to work on other weak areas that's great. From what I remember of pilot training if you PAed through a ride you just flew one less flight than everyone else. As far as I'm concerned, a dozen instrument flights is such little training already that even if you have a hot streak or just feel like you're nailing it, it's still worth it to see it one more time to solidify effective habit patterns and to potentially expose you to a situation you haven't seen yet. When you're RTB low on gas, at night and in the weather from an LFE sortie that utterly blew your mind, you'll be glad you have good habit patterns to fall back on.

I think we first need to address the elephant in the room which is WTF does baseops have a limit on how often I can wave my American flag emoji......gtfo my freedom!

Concur, as things are not always as alleged... https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/10/18/airman-faked-racist-texts-claiming-he-was-denied-special-duty-investigation-finds.html

It costs zero dollars and zero training days to send 18x to staff/aocs to free 11x for the cockpit.

CSO and MQ-9. You’re clearly the SME on training pilots. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Brain freeze would first require a brain… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dude maybe be the GOAT QB but he is still a complete douche.

For years folks have warned about the spread of VEOs to Africa, a historically under-resourced AOR. Our haphazard withdrawal from Afghanistan appears to have emboldened these folks to grow their influence. We have added forces but the administration promised us they would be able to handle this with an "over the horizon" strategy which appears to be failing miserably. The U.S. Is Losing Yet Another ‘War on Terror’ It is the Rolling Stone so as usual take with a grain of salt. However, those of us who deployed and operated there will see the indicators of a growing problem that WILL manifest itself in the near future.

-My absolute #1/5 69WG DONG watchers; never blinks--Promote Now, DONG/CC next!!!

You’re right that other countries seem to be more willing to (if not necessarily better or even good at) plan(ing) decades or even generations in to the future. What the West is good at, and what Americans excel at, is being able to roll with the punches and take advantage of opportunities or mistakes our adversaries make when they arise. China may have a long term plan, but their kind of top down structure makes them rigid, unable to think outside the box, and ultimately predictable. Liberal Democracy certainly seems, and is messy at times, but our more decentralized style has served us and the rest of the world well over the last century or so. I think China’s “rise” has been greatly exaggerated and Xi in particular has way overplayed his hand. He’ll be coronated for his third term here in a few days, but I’d put money on one of two things happening within the next decade: either the Chinese economy collapses, pulling the CCP down with it, or the party realizes they backed the wrong horse and Xi gets served up on a platter for the damage he’s done.

We stupidly got ourselves into a situation where Taiwan has the lion’s share of semiconductor manufacturing. Allowing China to control that monopoly would be a disaster. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bro, I agree on all points. But violence is a funny thing. It’s a risk/reward calculation between using too little or too much. I think we use too little in Africa to achieve our objectives. And using too little is worse than none at all, it hardens enemy resolve and dilutes partner trust when it takes 45 min & 4FWIA to get a single hellfire on tgt. Philosophically, when using violence I’d prefer we start with too much then throttle back if required. We do the opposite because it’s better politics, but it’s worked precisely no where.

Appreciate you trying Brother. Most of us have spent a career trying to avoid that place like the plague and instead just bitching about everything wrong - without doing a damn thing about it. Please don’t remind yourself too often. I’m certain you made more impact than you know and certainly more than the rest of us did.

...and it's the spare

ETIC was called parts plus 12, they’re not sure if they have the part, still, parts plus 12.

please stop. i've seen 2-3 students over 5 years who could PA. it's very rare IMO. each UPT student needs to use the maximum number of allotted syllabus flights. we've already watered down the standards enough. and yes....we have lowered the standards.

I would feel bad if we didn't help Taiwan (same way I feel with Ukraine) but I don't necessarily think it would work out for us too well if we responded to a Chinese attack on Taiwan with our military. Dudes are gonna eat it. I hope China doesn't do it. But hope doesn't mean anything. I'm tired of our dudes dieing in other countries as well. I'm still hoping for someone to find those WMDs in Iraq? Anyways I won't be flying for Red China. Lol Good discussion

To be fair, I'd rather transfer that potential experience over to a mission ride where I can get aero, form, low level, instruments, etc. all in one 'free' sortie in the mission phase rather than slog through a final nav sortie where all I can do is approaches.

My understanding is that end of the block flights for Trans and Nav are definitely possible (and relatively common) to PA as long as everything has been at/above MIF for a consistent trend, but studs that do PA end up using the 'extra' rides in their mission blocks for extra training

PA is explicitly allowed. The MASS algorithm accounts for it. Edit: 5. Proficiency Advancement The Wg/CC, delegated no lower than the Sq/CC, is the approval authority for Proficiency Advancement (PA). As a minimum, PA may be utilized in cases where overall student performance meets minimum course training standards and Special Syllabus requirements (SSR) prior to completion of a unit/block of training, while demonstrating consistent performance.

Yes they can. The sorties can then be reallocated to other blocks.

If you were to PA someone in UPT, it screws the MASS. You would have to assign fake grades to the stud who PA’d, or disregard those rides for everyone else. PA doesn’t matter in later courses, because there is no merit-based competition that affects assignments. As for the Sq/CC, you showed bad judgement sending him ahead. You would look like a f*cking idiot if you PA someone and they falter afterwards. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Up front: I agree that we shouldn’t PA folks in UPT, but these aren’t good reasons for it. Instead of PAing them, offer additional challenges that the average student couldn’t hack. To answer your questions: If they fail after PAing: The same thing happens as when somebody PAs in the FTU, MQ, IPUG, TX, or ICRS and then ends up washing out… except no FEB to worry about. If there’s doubt in writing the gradesheet, don’t PA them. Else it’s easy to stand by the decisions. Not messing with a system that hasn’t ever been validated as a predictor of future performance is not a good reason to avoid adjusting syllabus flow to accommodate the student. Turns out the grades are subjective anyway; let’s just get comfortable with a subjective overall measure (as an option).

I guess that was a better question-why doesn’t the syllabus allow it? You’re saying that subjective analysis will become objective if we just follows the syllabus. It makes sense within the Air Force’s self-imposed restrictions like MASS, etc. I’m saying they’d be PA’d if they’re meeting MIF early. You’re saying they may have had a Santa Claus or got lucky. But in your example of those end of block E’s, what if those came from Santas or they had temporary golden hands? How is that any different? A Sq/CC facing a CR? Use common sense. You sent him ahead, it didn’t work out, give him a few more rides. We’re wasting millions of dollars and plenty of human capital letting training timelines get behind. Why not get ahead where we can? In the few cases it doesn’t work out, use common sense.

Brother, I always (well, 99.9% of the time lol) appreciate your insight and info.

Aren’t you a Nav? I’m sure your expertise qualifies you to concoct an 18X-11X syllabus. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Have you look at their economy lately? They have SERIOUS issues the are already causing a lot of internal turmoil and it will only get worse. Yes we helped their economy grow but they tried to help themselves through artificial means to sustain that grown and adopted an economic model what was actually just not unsustainable. Holding GDP growth north of 9% was a function of currency manipulation and artificially stimulated domestic demand (google "China Ghost Cities" or watch the 60 minute special on that topic below. They are in a serious economic situation that will likely impact the whole world. Their one child policy didn't help the situation and long held societal preference for male versus female heirs has led to an uncomfortable balance. It is a long held worry that a couple hundred million angry and unemployed young men is difficult to control and the only way to maintain power is to focus them on an external threat. The big question is do we view an attack on Taiwan as an attack on us (under your theory), or do we honor our treaty promise? Bigger than that if they do decided to attack Taiwan (they already have) and they hit us at Guam kinetically and use Cyber on the homeland, how will we respond. For me as a knuckle dragger I have a far simpler view shared by the great Lt Col Andrew Tanner who said "Two toughest kids on the block, I guess. Sooner or later, they're gonna fight."

I was chalking it up to ice cream induced brain freeze.

Somewhere behind DFRESH's account, there is 1000 OSI agents trying to honey pot the next Tail Hook '92. I'm really looking forward to this....

Hey how's UPT Next going? We lost the thread about a page-and-a-half ago... What I want is an 18X -> 11X pipeline. ~4-6 months should do it. DA-20 refresher then maybe T-6 only or even straight to the T-7. If you can supposedly make a brand new 11X pilot off the street with UPT Next in ~6 months, shit, you can certainly make an 11X from an 18X who already knows chock-to-chock AF flying, AF pubs, tons of mission stuff, etc. The AF says it's short of pilots, the airlines say they're short of pilots, well the MDS with the most pilots is the MQ-9 and with satellite landing & recovery / ATLC / LEO satellite ops coming online now, those people are doing everything from engine start to shutdown, including killing our country's enemies. It's one weird trick to having more Air Force pilots (also CC the FAA please 🙏). I'd love to see a TX pipeline for getting the (typically) younger, more motivate sub-set of 18X MQ-9 pilots into manned platforms and frankly that should lead to shutting down the 18X career field entirely. It was a stop-gap in the first place and everyone who is an aircraft commander should go through UPT, learn the same skills and have the same wings IMHO. Especially with the only remaining RPA platform eventually sunsetting, 18X is kind of a death sentence for a brand new LT on active duty because there is absolutely not a plan for what to do with you when the Reaper is put out to pasture.

It’s a continent, not a country. I’m tired of the CT mission/narrative because it’s an unwinnable mission. Fuck it…let them have the desert.

If only we had experiences from other conflicts to draw on and learn from.

I don’t think there is a “he” in this story. Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Former CSO, current MQ-9 IP who has written a TX syllabus before so yea, I think I could take a hack at it! A random major with irrational self-confidence, what problem can he *not* conquer! 😅