Everything is cyclic, can’t count on anything but the “guarantee” and even that isn’t “guaranteed” by any means whenever a black swan event occurs. Some kill it and others fear the job will be killed off and sometimes it does go flat line - oddly enough it can happen at the same time being pax or cargo high and lows. Those anomalies aren’t controlled by any of us, but one can capitalize on such events being at the right place at the right time.
That being said, having a job then seniority is everything! The previous data points mentioned are awesome regarding the hustle and it seems in recent times FOs in greater numbers have finally started to figure out the lucrative initiatives they can capitalize on while keeping their lives very comfortable schedule wise. I myself maintain super senior FO and never miss any holidays or important events my wife and I enjoy. Somewhat different at some outfits and everyone’s priorities are different. Some enjoy specific day/night flying, domestic/international, weekends off or not, short runs, longer runs for extended time off, etc. Pay is the predominant priority followed by high pay least amount of work which is desirable.
As a crew force we need to understand what drives us individually and know what serves one doesn’t fit the other. When most start out they aren’t high earners so the chase for cash rides high and as time moves forward for the majority. Cash flows increase and your work life still burns, but hopefully seniority increases giving you more flexibility to create a better and better schedule opportunity.
Good example of right time right place or wrong place is within the cargo industry currently. Overstaffed Purple with new impact management, UPS hiring for USPS contract good movement for a short period perhaps and Atlas driving away from low profit margin cargo and realignment to the higher profit large cargo aircraft focus.
As a senior FO at Atlas I am fortunate (which is a guess by the numbers) to maintain my current lifestyle with little or no impacts which honestly remains to be seen from the actual fallout vs projected musical chairs. Unfortunately there will be those newish Capts falling back to the right seat, crews pushed out the bottom of their bases to less desirable bases and worst of all having lived in a disappearing base where they chose to reside for that lifestyle. Some will sit in current positions maintaining current pay while others will receive increases as well while they sit thru the transition. Definitely a Yes vote from me = All in all it’s a good move to keep folks off the street or at least give them a breather to end up where they intended to be initially.
Even if I had moved to left seat in 2016 this really would not have impacted me that much regarding seniority. Regardless of this current event and I was a Capt from 2016 I couldn’t get near the schedules, high paying lines and overtime if I so choose. I can match or exceed at times equivalent Capts with no heartache currently. During the viral debacle I could chase the extremely lucrative lines right down to the last areas of 175% payouts when they dwindled away while Capts within my same year group earned quite a bit less picking up the low hanging fruit. Senior Capts made out like bandits during that anamoly . Seniority is key! No lie there were just a few tuff days every few months BUT - Something to be said about if your work doesn’t feel like work you will never have to work another day in your life. It’s your life and if you’re happy stay put and do your thing!