Sorry I don't know how calendars work. 2026, not 2025.
I don't think any of the airlines are going to do a meaningful amount of hiring next year. I don't know the numbers at Delta or United, but American is absolutely overstaffed on pilots based on the number of planes we have and the passenger traffic. I think passenger traffic is going to decrease next year, not by some catastrophic amount, but it only takes a little to hit the airlines pretty hard.
We have about 850 retirements next year. If we hire less than 500 pilots then I would consider that bad news. Less than 259, really bad news. I expect the really bad news.
I couldn't put my finger on it because I'm not an industry analyst, but all year I've been hearing about how passenger traffic is higher than it's ever been, but it just *felt* slower. My scheduling strategy is pretty dependent on pilot manning, and this was the first year that felt like the pre-pandemic norm. Turns out you can still be overmanned during the biggest travel season in human history.
AA really fucked itself when it got rid of all those airplanes in a panic during the pandemic. It was a dumb idea on its own, but it has turned into a catastrophic idea given Boeing an airbuses difficulty with delivering airplanes.
It's entirely possible Delta and United and Southwest are in different spots because of their fleet size, but unless you believe Boeing is going to suddenly get their shit together and deliver dozens of airplanes per month, AA is in a jam. And none of that considers our heavy debt load. I think our executives are just praying for a massive rate cut cycle by the Fed.
I tend to have a negative bias on these types of things, so take it for what it's worth. But you also have to remember we have by far the weakest executive team of the major airlines. I think the only thing they know how to do is imitate the other airlines poorly.