soupafly06

Any of you heroes interested in starting a Baseops fantasy football league this year? I can handle the details as commish but would need at least 8-12 players to make it work. I’m thinking $25 buy in (flexible on that if we get a consensus) played via the Sleeper app. If interested reply here and I can DM the details.

I want to believe there’s some kind of conspiracy that leads to this but I just don’t think it’s true. Once you’ve been passed over twice you either get the boot or you get offered continuation. Continuation is purely voluntary and is the ultimate “get out of jail free card.” All ADSCs are waived though you would have to pay back portions of the bonus. I would think board members would realize this when making their judgements.

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category). Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ). If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%. Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone. With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.

Why not? Why do the proposed flying only tracks stop at O-4 and not O-5? It would close the airline pay gap a little and more pilots may volunteer for a flying only track if so. Speaking from my experience as one who has been passed over for O-5, the gold oak leaves start to feel like an albatross or scarlet letter at about the point your year group finishes pinning on. The fact of the matter is, many O-5s aren’t going on to lead at the Group level or higher (unless they’re HPOs) so why not just let there be automatic promotion to O-5 since those who are going to make senior leadership positions were already selected years before.

Absolutely. I sat in on a briefing by HAF/A1 himself and a pilot stood up and told him that he knew two pilots that punched because they were passed over. HAF/A1 then shot back that promotion is not a retention tool (and, to me at least, implied “maybe those two shouldn’t have sucked). I was taken aback. I can understand that promotion is based off “potential to perform at the next rank” but failing to promote absolutely leads to dudes walking and if our highest personnel leadership doesn’t see that then none of this will really change. For what it’s worth he also stated the promotion boards are supposed to treat in and above the promotion zone records the same but the stats of the last several years seem to show otherwise.

I was in those shoes two years ago and am expecting to get my third “sorry, not sorry” notification when I get back from leave. It’s a huge hit to the ego realizing the AF thinks you’re in the bottom 20% but once you get past that it’s actually damn liberating. I don’t know what your aspirations were and if squadron command and greater was one of those, it does suck but there are positives if you remain on AD. No more will you have to worry about an award packet or accepting that next awful job or deployment “because it would look good to your board.” With no incentive of moving up you also have no incentive to work endless office hours or on your days off to make some asinine deadline. Focus on yourself now, take a class or learn something new, take full advantage of hitting the gym during duty hours and spend time with your family outside of those duty hours. Look for jobs that interest you both while on AD and those that may pad your future resume. TL; DR: It sucks, but now that the AF stops caring about your career, you do you.

So 220 out of 500 slots are reserved for DAs? There’s no way SRs don’t give it to their #1 pick with those that remain left fighting for the remaining 280 scraps. Good news for those with a DA but not so much for the rest.

Post of the year IMO, well said. I can see the appeal of a new OPR process with a top, middle, and bottom third hard strats (similar to how the E's do it) and static close outs. At least then you'd know where exactly you stand and shouldn't be surprised when you don't get promoted, miss out on some developmental "opportunity," or not put on a command track. I also believe the HPO system as it stands now is poisonous and creates a "haves vs the have nots" culture that disincentivises those not on the track by removing any chance of moving into meaningful higher leadership roles (if that's what one desired) while not holding those on the HPO track accountable if they screw up.

I wasn't trying to say that all who go to WIC are aiming to be Sq/CC's. I'm sure every person there has their own unique reason for putting up with the challenges of the course. However, all else being equal, when it comes time for a Wing to rack and stack or for the command board to pick names, being a WIC grad is a fairly big discriminator. Haven't we all lamented at some point the waste of talent of sending a Patch to do a queepy Wing job that isn't related to Tactics or instruction? Maybe those Patches were already sh!t hot to begin with and would have been selected regardless but maybe that Patch is just another easy way for leadership to pick "high potential" talent for grooming and it's value for that shouldn't be understated.

I would say if your goal is squadron combat of a combat flying squadron then being a Patch is almost a requirement. From what I saw in the RPA community at least all combat squadron commanders were patch wearers while the non-patches commanded the FTU and OSS squadrons. I’m not saying that’s the case 100% of the time but if one’s goal is command of a combat squadron then a being a patch wearer certainly doesn’t hurt. Maybe it’s a fairly obvious observation (especially being in ACC) but it’s something I didn’t realize until far too late.

For captains I wouldn’t necessarily say that but as a major you for damn sure better have the DO or Sq/CC push. Certainly if It’s not on your PRF it’s a kiss of death (and it’s presence on a PRF won’t guarantee promotion either).

Thanks for the advice so far guys. Unfortunately for me I’m a pipeline RPA bubba so no hours of any sort count for me except for what I claw out through civilian flying. I’m also a bit long in the tooth for trying the UPT path so it Looks like the best bet is getting the commercial and CFI done and then grinding out the hours while I can. I think I may look in to see if I could still apply for a restricted ATP assuming I met all other criteria though, didn’t see any language forbidding it and it never hurts to ask.

This is probably a totally newb question but F it anyways. I want to continue a post-AF career flying something but I'm an RPA driver and all of those hours in the container won't count for squat with the FAA or airlines. Assuming I have my civilian certs (CFI, MEL, etc) but relatively low hours, what's the best path forward to the airlines? I'm assuming the basics are build up to 1500 hours and then slog up through regionals and eventually to the majors just like everybody else but what has the timeline been like for those of you that have started at a regional to get picked up by a major carrier? Would my RPA and military experience be a bit of a discriminator when it comes to hiring (assuming all other boxes are checked) or do they really mean nothing when it comes to the airlines?

I highly recommend "Lucky 666: The Impossible Mission that Changed the War In the Pacific" by Bob Drury and Tom Clavin. It's about a ragtag B-17 crew and their ultimate final mission together that lead to two MoHs (one for Jay Zeamer the pilot and the other for Joe Sarnoski the bombardier). Truly inspiring stuff about the B-17 crews in the theater they weren't really recognized for. I got to visit Sarnoski's grave at the Punch Bowl in HI this summer, very moving experience.

Thanks everyone for the feedback, I'm suffering under no illusions as to what the true chance of success for a twice passed over guy is even with rumors of increased promotion opportunity. This year the board decided to promote fewer IPZ and more BPZ so maybe that's an indicator of the future and shows that Big Blue prefers to take their chances on less experience and "greater" potential than more experience and average records. I just say this as a caution that if you think an average or even slightly above average record without having all the boxes checked will get you promoted, the trend so far doesn't support it.

With O-5 PRFs coming due to groups and wings in the not too distant future, what advice do you salty types have on what should be included or not? The definites include: - Command and school push along with Joint/HAF/MAJCOM/NAF Staff (in that order) - Stats and awards and examples of leadership at increasing levels of responsibility - Super "P" ("If I had one more DP to give) for those without a DP Negative indicators and unhelpful bullets: - No strats and awards or periods of no strats anywhere in the record - Leaning too heavily on deployed experience unless in a leadership role - No command or school push in bottom line Just a few of the things I've seen tossed about this board but wanted to get the discussion going. Also, has any one here gotten picked up APZ with just a "P" and if so, how'd you pull it off? Looking at the stats from last year if you're APZ and a pilot then you had a little over 1% chance of getting picked up with a "P" recommendation only but almost a 90% chance of promotion if you picked up a "DP". For the APZ types I'd guess this means any chance for promotion will not come via the board but your senior rater, for better or for worse. Anyone have any luck having a chat with their senior rater before the big rack and stack began to convince them you were worth a "DP"?

It’s a helluva gamble to take especially when promotion rates for those in the zone with a “P” went down almost 10% between the ‘17 and ‘18 boards while BPZ went up. The Air Force will get their’s, and they’re giving it to the shiny pennies still.

Sorry man, but with that push and a P you’ll probably be joining the ranks of us passed over types. Best of luck though. With the rates of those getting promoted with only a P going down this year, getting that DP is key. I’d recommend meeting with your senior rater for a chat before he does the rack and stack, especially if they don’t know you well. Better he has a face to put to the package (STS) that might at least make them think a bit vice remaining faceless and being an easy push into the P pile.

What kind of hours are we talking about to qualify for air attack? Considering the mission set and that Cal ANG performs the mission at times, would RPA time be of any benefit assuming one meets all other minimums?

Sorry for bad gouge but yeah it's available in RAW.

Promotion stats are out on AFPC. IPZ and APZ select rates with a P went down while BPZ rates went up. Good news for HPOs but sucks for the rest of us working stiffs.

I'm right there with you man. Expecting my second rejection on Tuesday. Hoping it isn't as painful as the first time around but sure it's still going to be a kick square to the junk all the same. Hopefully they're offering continuation. Since that first rejection and post stages of grief, it's been liberating to no longer chase after that next "must do this for promotion" job though. I'll always do what needs to be done to not let down my unit or Bros but I can focus on doing stuff that's more meaningful to me and prep for life post USAF. It's also fun speaking ones mind with little fear of pissing off the boss, cause what's he gonna do, not promote me? Best of luck in figuring it all out though, it's never easy.

Add me to the list of guys looking for the list

RUMINT said there was a 91% select rate to O-5 this last board. Is there anyone here in the know on what the APZ select rate was?

I get URT is all in the sim, I’m a graduate of the course. All I’m asking is that if UPT Next works out and it’s 90% sim and only 30 hours in the T-6 then why even keep URT as a separate training pipeline at all? Seems like squeezing drone drivers through the course would provide flexibility to flow into other airframes instead of being limited to just the MQ-9 and RQ-4. Apologies for the thread derail.