1) Your ADSC starts on the day you get your wings. Add in casual and training time and it really equals about 12 years.
2) It is hard to wash out of UPT these days.
3) Yes, there is a low washout rate and most are attributed to medical DQs and SIEs.
4) Study hard, chair fly, pay attention, help your classmates, and graduating from UPT won't be a problem. 90% of it is in your head, 10% is your natural ability to fly a plane.
5) It isn't guaranteed that you will be kicked out if you do wash out. If you had a good attitude, people will go to bat for you and try to get you retrained in another career field. But with force shaping, you're still putting yourself in a bad position. If you SIE (read: waste the AF's time and money) you're out.
6) Finally, if you are not willing to risk getting kicked out or a 10-year commitment, don't go to UPT. If you REALLY want to fly, those things won't be that big of a deal to you.
HD