The GAO report (https://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08388.pdf) on the F-35 program that came out this month is hitting more headlines as people start doing some simple math. $300 billion (The GAO total cost figure that they think is more realistic) divided by the expected total buy of 2,458 aircraft comes out to around $122 million per copy.
A Defense Acquisition Board meets today to give it the go ahead for low rate initial production 2. Should we be surprised if they give a pause until the program office recalculates its projected cost with more up to date and realistic numbers like the GAO report recommends? And would the following affect their decision?
- Cost per flight hour exceeds that of the F-16 (I would assume that means current cost per hour)
- Compare $122 million per F-35 to $138 million per F-22 right now at (USAF FY 2009 budget estimates: https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/do...080204-081.pdf) That is at incremental cost and to be fair to the F-35 program the average cost for the projected buy of 183 F-22s averages to $338 million per copy. On the other hand, the $135 million per F-22 could drop significantly with a larger buy.
Thinking realistically...
- From what I see the program is planning on the AF buying 1,763
- The USAF operates around 1,315 F-16s and 350 A-10s (1,665 total). Not taking into account the F-15E and any F-117s, since they don't have large argument for F-35 replacement, and dropping 223 A-10s from that number since deciding to modernize them, that leaves just 1,442 F-35 as replacements (322 less) for the AF
- Furthermore, do we have a strong argument for a 1:1 buy, especially with the CSAF saying it "will be so much more capable than the F-16"? The 1997 QDR dropped the F-22 buy from 442 to 341 due to the "more capable" reasoning. However, going ahead with the 1:1 ratio buy, but dropping the AF buy to 1,442, that makes a total F-35 buy to $140 million per copy [$300 billion divided by 2,136 F-35s, (takes into account 322 less AF)]
So just looking at a readjusted and very realistic AF buy, while not even touching the other service's buys and expecting a 1:1 AF buy... the cost is just over the current cost of an F-22. Am I looking at this from the wrong perspective?
Sources
GAO F-35 March 2008 report
https://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08388.pdf
Making the Best of the Fighter Force, by: John A. Tirpak
https://www.afa.org/magazine/march2007/0307force.asp
CSBA's US Fighter Modernization Plans: Near Term Choices
https://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/Pu...ter_Moderni.pdf