Someone should invite the Major on over to baseops and let us see him try to counter the arguments from actual AF pilots, not statistics.
Hacker...I think you and Major Spwings under-estimated your 2nd point. The suck continues to grow exponentially every day, and the bonus is a tool (sts) that allows dudes to stop, take a deep breath, and say "OK....I think I can put up with this shiite for another 5 years." Being as "cool" as the j o b is looked upon by outsiders, I doubt that we will ever have a shortage of dudes applying for UPT, but you can bet that we grow closer and closer to the line everyday where almost no one will stay past their initial committment regardless of how much money mother blue throws at him/her. Like Dmeg130 said, the "relective belt factor." ACP is just delaying when we reach that point.
Also, don't forget that $125K in 1989 dollars ain't anywhere near what it is in 2009 dollars. From a 6.9 google search, $125K in 1989 is equal to $207K in 2007 (latest data available). If my math is correct, we're only making 60% of what the original bonus was anyways.