Chuck17

Ha yeah no kidding - things changed in the six months since I made that comment, so, good point... I guess I had too much focus on the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the historical evidence of reduced defense budgets under democratic leadership... Chuck

Because it’s the AFSC equivalent of a football bat. It doesn’t fit well anywhere. AOCs are getting these guys and not knowing what to do with them because they’re different. So they get used in unintended ways and not as designed. Having watched this thing get frankensteined together 3-4 years ago, this isn’t much of shock. This was Goldfein’s baby, and what the CSAF wants, they get. The A3 was skeptical then and he’s the MAJCOM/CC in charge of the program now, so it’s not a huge shock that it got the “go quietly into the night” axe. See previous post. Chuck

GO-hate is my favorite kinda WIC-hate. The level of self-own in AFSOC is epic. Chuck

Best post in this entire thread. For everyone who hasn’t done a tour in DC/Pentagon, who’s forgotten what it’s like, or who’s old and angry and wants somebodys butt, keep in mind: 1. DC is a cesspool. It is a terrible terrible unwholesome crazy 68 square miles surrounded by reality. What happens there is as much theater as truth. 2. Everything is deliberate. 3. Politics is about power. Power is about money. (In the end, everything is about money. Follow the dollars.) 4. You don’t know the full story, nor will you. 5. DC is a paradox. Not everything is newsworthy, or as bad/impactful as the news makes it. Unfortunately, when things unravel they unravel quickly, and you never know whats going to tip the scale, so pay attention to everything. My advice for anyone going there is to enjoy it as best you can, learn to swim with the sharks without chumming the water via your mistakes, then get the hell out of there as quick as you can. Because its fucking terrible. Chuck

Get ready for this kinda take rate being used as justification to kill the bonus altogether… I give it one more FY, tops. Makes a perfect compliment to the $300+B in cuts coming to the Pentagon… Rough roads ahead. Chuck

It’s the one true American political tradition… Chuck

This checks with the info received inside AMC HQ. AMC has a reputation for Q3 shenanigans, well earned. So when OSI got involved (for the reasons above noted by 18AF), the crewdog rumor mill went into hyperactive and made a slew of assumptions. I don’t think there’s any headhunting (not yet anyway), but there’s a ton of video out there…This situation was absolutely unprecedented - and AMC leadership has already engaged AFCENT and CENTCOM with let’s call it “terse comms” on the matter. I’ll leave it at that. Chuck

This. Power of the press coverage of this nightmare will take care of the rest. Chuck

In the immediate, things will reset. The forces will start to flow back home and elsewhere. Training will uptick, missions will downtick - initially. Then the shit hits the fan. No Afghanistan means GREATLY reduced TWCF missions, and with it flying hours, seasoning, and funding dollars. AMC is in a bad spot. Commercial augmentation will also reduce, and airlift will start flying channel missions again, but not enough make good on the loss of FHP. Commercial cargo airlines will start beating Congress because USTC cuts commercial cargo flow to save the crew force (follow the money), and crews will start starving for ANY flying in about 8-12 months. And then the fun part - the FY23 budget is going to be a cut to the bone. Force reductions are coming because we can’t afford modernization, recapitalization, and people all at once. They’ll pay pilots to get out. Some wings are going to shutter. Some jets are going to the boneyard. And it’ll last for a couple years. And then the “new new new normal” will be set. Start looking at the mid-to-late 90s as the benchmark for what AMC flying will look like - just not as heavy (Balkans, ONW/OSW replaced by routine trips/deployments to Saudi/Kuwait/etc). Make your plans wisely. Unless there’s a pop up conflict, that’s what’s on the horizon. Chuck

Taking this one step further, if I’m those bad guys I know there are two things that MAF force can’t operate without - TRANSCOM and The 618th AOC. So to gain advantage in the outset, I’d be turning every cyber ninja bad guy warrior I can toward shutting them down. The centralized and efficient processes that developed to support COIN conflicts are akin to those that made the Berlin Airlift hum along. Shooting wars are messy, inefficient, and chaotic. When the next high end fight kicks off, the current processes, organizations, and leadership will all need to be ushered offstage so the innovators, do-ers and combat leaders can get back in the mix. We’ve been in purgatory long enough… Especially in the MAF. Chuck

Been outside the community for a few years, but there’s some of this that perks my ears up. The MAF has had an identity crisis for a while - FedEx in flightsuits vs the folks who want to push the envelope and do more. MobGar is a classic example, as is this thread… it’s worse in certain communities (cough cough C-17…) The feedback I received thru the grapevine matches that here - there’s a lot of airline apps being filled out by folks who didn’t study, take it seriously, or maybe were just asked to punch the “I believe” button more than they’re used to - there was participation, but not as much learning by the crews as was desired. But then again you can’t show and go to an LFE… I’m also not shocked that ANY LFE is a shitshow - as this one was described. Everytime I went to Pope or a Flag it was a dogs breakfast mess, but we got better because it was a shitshow. So is war. The first few months in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria prove that. That’s why we do the training. It’s not gonna NOT be a shitshow until we get the reps and raise the bar. AMC, the wings, and the crews need to realize you can’t do things like this once a year and expect proficiency. That’s counterintuitive, and underestimates the complexity - which is also what I expect from crews and leadership that havent grown up doing these things… Find the guys who are pushing the team to get better and follow them. They don’t have to be Patches, but the Patches better know that they’re the ones expected to un-F the world when things DO become a shitshow… Chuck

You’d be surprised…. Downstate Dems in Illinois look an awful lot like Republicans elsewhere - pro-life, pro-gun, etc. My guess is he knows the score, but the outcome might be different than your posit. Chuck

Whew okay that makes way more sense. My bad on reading comprehension FAIL. So far as CP jobs at the Deid: Eww, no. Nice folks there however, always very helpful with a thankless job. Cheers, Chuck

AFPC asked?? ...And...”Is being a commander a good job??” (If you’re getting ready to retire, only YOU can answer if you want to go remote to the desert or go quietly into the sunset...) What squadron at the Deid are we talking about anyway? Okay, forgetting the bizarre nature of such questions, yes, Sq/CCs all have vehicles, and all Sq/CCs live in their own dorm room (I had two) with a bathroom, kitchenette, etc., in a Sq/CC dorm - no roommates. Also: booze. It helps. Chuck

What if I told you that the economy is so f’ed and the national debt is so immense that the future of austerity is going to drive force structure and mission changes anyway, as all the services and our Executive/Legislative Branch leaders face the choice of destroying the country with debt (not to mention entitlements), or remaining in far flung missions around the globe? If that doesn’t get you thinking, what if I instead told you that everyone else’s economy is also as f’ed as ours was by the ‘Rona, so nobody (not even China) is any better or worse off respectfully, and everything will go on as before...? We don’t know which is true yet, but I’d offer that regardless of who wins the WH, there are massive cuts coming to the DoD - either as a second term “look how efficient I am” win, or as a matter of policy to pay for entitlements. Either way, a new force structure is coming, and not just in the service... I think the legacy of Goldwater-Nichols and the Combatant Commands are on the block too. Churchill said it first: “we are out of money, time to think...” Chuck

My guess is he’s a fighter WSO who understands as much about Air Mobility as he does about logistics... This is an uninformed idea that nonetheless has potential - if you reframe it for an unmanned platform. Cannibalizing Herks “because we have so many” and turning them into Inside tankers is a non-starter for AMC. Put that brainpower into an unmanned platform requirement and you’re on to something... Chuck

Yikes. Id take them the AFI - it specifically addresses this in discussing stratification. Then at least your O6 has to look you in the eye and tell you that they knowingly ranked you #2 behind a guy that’s already being promoted. Chuck

Yep I’m with you, tweet provided for context only! Cheers, Chuck

Unless she’s an operator who comes in and kicks over chairs, cleans up the joint and deals with the entrenched cadre who’ve “always done things this way...” In that case, all the clerks get their undies in a bunch and the IGs get called. (Seen it firsthand) Can not confirm on this case, just being devils advocate. Given her circumstantial (in the report) connection to a suicide though, I doubt she stays in our AF much past her current assignment. Chuck

Will Roper has been noted in certain circles as being the guy with good ideas, but also as a neophyte when it comes to how “the system” works. Instead of working within, he wants to scrap and rebuild. There’s merit to that. But there’s also the Mil-Industrial Complex to contend with. They have constituency shareholders, and congressional reps in their deep pockets. They won’t change for Will Roper. Your assertion is spot on. Chuck

For ignoring guidance? Or for lying about ignoring guidance...? (Heard it briefed differently, that's all...) Chuck

To be fair, this has been corrected in the AFI. There is definitely a nuance to the report language however. Here’s the guidelines I’ve been given (from an O-9) and what I’ve been using ever since: 1. NEVER strat anyone “top 10% of xxx” - put a number on it. 2. Typically strat only the top 10-15% of your folks. 3. Dont strat as FGOs or CGOs - strats rate folks against groups of Peer rank (xx of xx LtCols, Captains), Peer Job (x of xx Flt/CCs), Peer specialty (x of xx IPs) - in that tiered order of preference. 4. Exception: If you don’t get stratted against the other Sq/CCs when you’re a Sq/CC - you’re not in the running. Put another way: if you have a report as a Sq/CC that strats you as a LtCol instead of a Sq/CC... especially in your second year of command... then you’re not in the top - even if you’re the #1 LtCol as a 2nd year Sq/CC, that’s a second tier strat and it sends a message. 5. Push lines - they include Job, School, Staff/Command (whichever is next). You cannot push Sq/CCs as Wing/CCs - but you can push them as Vice/Group CCs (i.e. the next step). 6. Other than a top strat, Ownership - as in “personal-note on the OPR-style-wording” is the best possible message relayed on an OPR. If your senior rater says “My x/xx Captains” that’s good. If they rewrite a top or bottom line to say: “Read carefully: the most talent, maturity, and leadership I’ve seen in a Major in 28 years: a must for Sq/CC, then JS & SDE” - that draws attention. 7. GOs know when there’s speeding on OPRs or PRFs. If they see it, they’ll call the speeder out on it - or they will disregard the records that individual pushed to the board. I’ve seen both happen (epic asschewing!) and it doesn’t work out well. So you if you know what to look for, you‘ll know where you stand. Some dudes have flat out amazing records - theyve DGd everything, did the WIC, always been number 1, went to IDE, etc etc. Theyre unicorns. The vast majority have records that build... You get to a base, turn a few heads, the next year you upgrade, get a strat, maybe get a group job, then get a wing strat, etc etc. Almost nobody shows up and starts pulling #1s out the gate. They instead build a record of performance and a reliable reputation. Guess which cohort the vast majority of the GOs come from? Unicorns burn out; they rarely stay. The service is run by high performing dudes who were always in the running but not quite preordained as the next CSAF. Anyone who says otherwise hasn’t seen their records. YMMV, but there’s a method to the madness. Chuck

Shack. But, but, but... distributed operations! MICAP! Landing on dirt strips and beaches and highways! Pit n Go sorties galore for our four ship of F-35s launching out of some wide spot in the road! How will we get them gas, ammo, parts If we don’t have this capability, etc!? If we don’t have/own/operate/control this platform and OPCON we’ll lose against the (insert scary ultra-capable near peer military force and/or next shithole militia dudes on motorbikes with SA-7s and AKs here) ! Always entertaining what comes out ACC/AFSOC/Army when it comes to this topic - if they could just get the funding and pilots to fly them. Airlift is no different than any other airpower asset - high demand, low density. Every air/ground commander doesn’t need their own, every TF doesn’t need their own; prevalence for misuse is high. For the niche, it works; on the whole, not so much... This one won’t get solved by big blue. USAF will leave airlift to the airlifters instead of dreaming up ways everyone can get their own perfectly tailored airlift support. Chuck