NKAWTG

As many have alluded to, tasking levels from the COCOMs tend to keep MAF assets maxed out on what they can commit to. So when a flag exercise comes around, AMC will task and cancel and retask again. The average tanker bubba will see yet another TDY pop up on their schedule a week prior or so. Juxtapose that with the fighter unit that has the exercise on the calendar for six months and actively planning for the last three. They want to do secret squirrel stuff, so no one in the MPC without a read in. The poor LT tasked as the planner gets a time, place and offload, and not much more. That ends up with the tankers supporting the exercise without really playing in the exercise. Sometimes we do it better than that. Occasionally we even get something out of it. But most of the time we're just retasked and back in the desert.

To explain my snark a bit more, I don't believe any part of the executive branch will investigate any misconduct by someone with a (D) by their name. So when it comes to Kerry selling out the Israelis, the media will turn a blind eye. Doubtful Israel will share any intel on how many of their people were compromised/killed because of Kerry. The only reasonable thing would be the House switching hands, and committees doing their own investigation. As we saw during the Obama years, the committees will be high on rhetoric, and low on ability to compel testimony from the Justice Department and the IRS, to name a few. So where do go from here? I haven't a clue at this point.

Only if someone will hold them accountable. Earliest would be 2023 that it could happen.

With the threat of my town burning down, and the implied doxing of my family by the prosecutor's office, it would be hard not to convict. This is still in the first inning though. Do the other 3 officers take a plea deal, knowing they can't get a fair trial? Does the prosecutor even offer a plea deal knowing he has a guaranteed conviction? Is the nation in a saner place that the appeals court can rule fairly? Does the appeals court even bother since the jury came to the "politically correct" conclusion? Do Antifa, BLM and Mad Maxine repeat their terroristic threats at the next trial, or in Atlanta at Garret Rolf's trial?

Think we crossed the Rubicon on government debt many moons ago. It doesn't work like personal finance. The two options out there are to devalue the currency, i.e. inflation, or default in some manner. Paying it off isn't even a discussion these days. Inflation seems to be the chosen option because that's still workable as long as we're the world's reserve currency. One thing I'm curious about is if this latest government handout will cause inflation. If the average consumer is smart about it, they will use the stimulus to pay back rent, mortgage forbearance and credit card debit down, or save it. Paying for past consumption doesn't seem likely to cause future inflation, but I'm kinda clueless these days. My economic textbooks lacked the socialist and redistributive notions that are all the rage now.

Best guess... Overstaffed in 2021 Voluntary time offs cancelled in 2022 Furloughs recalled in 2023 Min staffing/overtime pay in 2024 Hiring 2025? Probably goes in that order, +/- a year or two.

Trump has been the only president in my lifetime who avoided starting a new conflict or invading another country. Who are we going to pick a fight with now since it's returning to "normal."

With all the deferred retirements due to COVID, would they lower the promotion rate, or slow the pin on rate to keep under the cap?

I retired last year, coming off a deployment with little to no recency in flying. Thought process was to do a touch and go at a regional, and get hired by this summer or fall. That will not work out as planned, and the check of the month club will keep the lights on and mortgage paid. SouthWest may hire next year. Some of the next tier down, like Spirit or Frontier may also hire. Or go under. The big three will need to bring back all of their furloughs before they start hiring. Regional airline pay will not exceed your retirement pay until you're 5 years in as a captain with them. Taking the bonus means accepting a 365 in the next 5 years. No bonus means you can 3 day opt that deployment. Money is good, especially if you were staying anyways. Flexibility may be better, depending on your family situation. Going guard or reserve as Lt Col is hard, especially on a time crunch from a 3 day opt. All that to say I don't know, and neither does anyone else.

Truth is so different for people. I turn on one network to watch coverage of the George Floyd riots, and the next channel down has coverage of the George Floyd protests. And they are covering the same thing. Everyone seems to be in violent agreement that the dude was murdered by the cop, and should be prosecuted. They arrested the cop and charged him. Now what? Restore law and order? Remove the police and let communities fend for themselves? I can't seem figure out what the point is now.

Can't we have them declare bankruptcy, wipe out the shareholders and start over. The Uncle Sam backstop creates one heck of a moral hazard and enables quite a bit of self dealing and shady practices. The facilities, equipment and patents will still be there regardless of what the company looks after Chapter 11.

Your dealing with separations and retirements, not the retention part of AFPC. If they respond no, then their work stops. If they say yes, then they have to do something. Outside of the snarky answer, you need to have someone at the Wg/CC level or higher engaging for you. The reg says something about requiring reasons not common to most airmen to withdraw a retirement. It's written vague enough that it could mean whatever the Air Force wants it to mean. I got a "don't let the door hit you on the way out" answer from them last year on extending a retirement, and decided not to fight it. Separating may have different regs governing, so it doesn't hurt to ask, but be prepared go a couple rounds on this one.

How often are 135s offloading everything (or at least within a couple thousand pounds)? Not today, but early 80s was a different story. Any weight added decreased the amount of fuel to offload in the SAC mindset. Ref the tanker TOAD, Dr Strangelove mission set.

You mean we're actually going to vet UPT and FTU instructors? We already screen out HPO types because it would hurt their careers. Now we're removing guys with Q3s or crappy training records. Guess there's a narrow band of not special, but not a dirt bag they are looking for. Good thing we fixed the retention problem and have a large pool of candidates to choose from.

Sounds fairly similar to my situation 10 years ago. I worked my way into a staff gig so I'd have my PRF written there vs the tanker school house. Worked according to plan, but I also believe I would not gotten the nod for Lt Col had I taken a 4th flying assignment. Regardless of board instructions, the O-6s sitting on the board got there following a path, and that path doesn't look like a fly only track. If you wind up there on purpose or held by your community, O-4 is most likely where you'll top out.

The DT vector is used by assignment officers for placement. The staff push on an OPR is another form of stratification. Two separate processes that share the same name. They don't have to agree, or even make sense.

No "could" about it. If you get a Sq/CC push on one OPR, followed by something less than that, it is a signal to the board that you are in the lower half of the strat pool. Lack of a strat, coupled with a downgrade in job push means you probably won't get promoted. That's your signal to start hitting up guard units or polishing the resume.

Need to second this. There is a lack of mission focus in AMC that you won't realize until you do a tour in PACAF or USAFE.

Related question. How do you count evaluator time? Unless the other pilots are unqualified or can't hold the A code, then the EP typically is not listed as the A code.

All good info above, but understand truth has a date-time stamp associated with it. Valid insight today could be useless a year from now. There are some trends I think will hold though. The 135 community was the piggy bank AFPC robbed to fill UPT and RPA billets. HPOs did crossflow or early MAJCOM staff. Everyone else who slogged through two tanker assignments got assigned to Altus and 7 day opt'd or plan to separate after 2 years. Long story short, the experienced pilots around the 10 to 17 year mark are gone, and not coming back. They need them at the squadron level, and if want to stay operational, you should be able to. Making O-5 in that environment will still be tough. The MAF does not care about breath of experience unless it comes from one of their boarded programs. CAF guys will get promoted ahead of MAF guys. Airlift will get promoted ahead of 135s. You would need to make your peace with retiring as a Major, and being first in line for any 6 month non flying deployment that drops.

That doesn't protect you from the short notice 180. Completely the wing commander's decision on who goes.

Return from overseas is a one year PCS commitment instead of two. You can preemptively ask to extend the DEROS to your separation date, or 7 day opt and have them extend your DEROS to the separation date. Remote chance they could send you anyway and just take the 7 months. Just watch what you sign because there is every chance they could try screw you over on it.

Most APZ pilots tend to have flown their entire career and are very good at it. They've given the Heisman to queep, and paid the price in promotion rates. They do most of the flying, teaching, and mentoring of our next generation of pilots. In the MAF world, the guys who are BTZ got that way by doing everything but aircraft related duties, and typically have little credibility flying. Most I've known want to fly more, but the AF won't let them do it often enough to stay good.

To show my work 2016 149/313 2017 140/319 2018 117/308 Assume around 15% to 20% will be on the school/staff/command track. Not that they were bad aviators, but the MAF won't let them stay good. What's left over is the "experienced" grey beard types. With AMC being the piggy bank that gets robbed for the majority of AETC and UAV billets, we're about to go back to the days of 1 FGO per squadron.

Got bored staring at my computer in my 9 to 5 non flying desk job, and started to geek out on the mobility take rate data. So for the past 3 years, the number of useful fodder pilots, defined as non IDE select bonus takers, has been less 100. This year is less than 60. These are the passed over majors and line IP Lt Cols that wings use to fill ADOs, OGV, IG, XP, and MAJCOM staffs use to push paper. And to feed the deployment machine filling 365s, I mean 2x 180s. We'll always have enough of the HPO and command track types, but the experienced pilots are disappearing. We're 5 or more years from bottoming out on the experience level in the MAF. But we're the healthiest of the bunch?