ClearedHot
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Despite the sniping from the trolls I think there’s a difference between writing a check and unlocking leverage—and too many people are blurring that line when it comes to Iran. In 2016, the Barack Obama administration transferred roughly $1.7B to Iran. That wasn’t foreign aid—it was the settlement of a decades-old legal dispute over pre-1979 funds, including $400M that was literally delivered in cash because sanctions had cut Iran off from the global banking system. It looked bad. Optically, strategically it handed the regime a win with minimal immediate pressure tied to behavior. What’s being discussed now is fundamentally different. We’re not talking about pallets of cash showing up overnight. We’re talking about controlled, conditional access to Iranian funds—money that is already theirs, but frozen—and releasing it in phases tied to compliance, outcomes, and leverage. That distinction matters. I am not in favor of flooding Iran with cash they can redirect to proxy groups or destabilizing activities. That’s reckless. Economic power isn’t just about denial, it’s about calibration. If you only ever tighten the vise, eventually you lose the ability to trade relief for behavior. And then your only remaining tools are escalation or stalemate. The goal isn’t to “help Iran.” The goal is to shape outcomes in a way that serves U.S. interests and regional stability.
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They have to have some money to feed the populace. If (and that's a big IF right now), we get the nuclear material that is IMHO a huge win. Navy = gone, AF = Gone, ability in the near-term to produce TBM's = gone, nuclear material = gone...in the aggregate it is a big win. Potentially a harder line government in place is not good, but it is not over yet. BTW - Oil is dropping like a rock. Time will tell.
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This is why I will no longer engage with you guys... It is conservatively estimated that 17% of all US. deaths in Iraq were directly tied to Iran. Since this regime took power THOUSANDS of Americans have died thanks to their sponsorship of terror around the world. JCPOA did NOTHING to stop that, in fact, Obama made $1.7B in cash payments to Iran..I am sure they used it to build schools and education systems for women and homosexuals.
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the 20MM rounds are "supposed to self-destruct but not all function correctly. Regardless, you would be raining metal on residential areas. So many layers to this and obviously not the forum to discuss in detail. Their success was not as much associated with low inventory of interceptors as it was commander decisions to park aircraft in the way they did, the Chinese entering the fight and providing high quality, near real-time decision intel and a lot of luck. With regard to the exchange ratio, that is more associated with UAS attack vectors not TBMs. That being said, there is work being done on that front as well. The bigger issue is the American way of war, we are VERY averse to casualties and grown more sensitive through the years. On September 17, 1862 23,000 Americans died in 12 hours of fighting at the Battle of Antietam. On September 26, 1918 2,300 Americans died in the Meuse-Argonne Offensive. On October 24, 1944 2,600 were killed during fighting in World War II On November 27 – December 4, 1950 6,000 Americans were killed in Korea On January 32, 1968 246 Americans died fighting in Vietnam During combat operations in Operation Desert Storm 148 Americans died Since Feb. 28, 13 U.S. service members have been killed in the Iran War, 6 of those in a KC-135 during an accident during a support mission. Our news cycle is so accelerated and our loss tolerance is low we miss the bigger strategic picture. Over 13,000 DMPIs struck, Iran's Navy is gone, Iran's Air Force is gone, they are forced down to local tactical fighting using IR weapons which are still deadly but have a much smaller impact.
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Idiots.... "Two targeting pods?" "The airplane has a 200NM combat radius?" "This airplane is design for low-altitude fight" Change name to Doorknob and Donkey.
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You are getting close...the real equation is how many interceptors do you have to build to achieve you desired PK. In the industry the problem is being called the exchange ratio. With the Houthis we were shooting multi-million dollar SM2s, with the TBMs we are shooting multi-million dollar Patriots, when Iran tried the attack last year the F-15's were chucking multi-million dollar AMRAAMs and AIM-9Xs. USAF in particular has invested a LOT and made industry go fast as realized by the AGR-20 Falco which flips the equation back to our favor, interceptors now cost 1/3 that of the threat. Ummm NO! Are you out of your mind? Use Nellis, Eglin, Andrews, Joint Base San Antonio as examples, what do you say to the locals when you start spraying 4100 rounds of 20MM into neighborhoods around the base in the name of self-defense? CRAM is great at FOBs but CONUS bases need a different and layered solution.
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Growing up in Miami I am still close with many Cubans who came over during the Mariel boatlift. Several of them absolutely hate Trump but are over the top supportive of his actions as they related to Cuba. One has an older brother that served many years in the Cuban Army. My friend paid a LOT of money to help his brother emigrate to the U.S. about 20 years ago. His brother was much older when he came over and he was never able to integrate here in the U.S. and ultimately decided to go back. My friend sends his brother food each month and has shared words about the conditions which are terrible to say the least. My friend worked for the CIA for many years then moved to academia and is ready to fully retire. He was here visiting a few weeks ago and told me he is planning to postpone his retirement for several years and plans to return to Cuba to help them rebuild if the current government falls. he has shared there are several Cuabn American groups that have been planning for months to return and help rebuild the island.That mechanism already exists in doctrine. Excess airpower is supposed to kick over to the JFACC and has in every conflict since Kosovo (there was HUGE fight over gunships in Kosovo that drove discussion and doctrine updates at the 4 star level. During OEF I routinely flew as a SOF asset one night and was chopped as excess to the CJFAC the next night. That construct does require the stars to act like adults which can be a challenge. AFSOC wants to be part of the big fight and they know they can't given the threat so now more than ever they are open to new approaches. Things like small cruise missile let them play and make a valuable contribution. Interestingly the effort to being SCM to AFSOC was done on a CRADA with AFSOC (SOCOM) dollars...a level of commitment from the current commander who sees the value. I've said it here many times, having the ability to put large numbers (100+), on an MC-130 enables AFSOC to send a large swarm with just a few planes, such a swarm would be a real threat to anything trying to cross the straight...especially if they have ATR and are on the link. Putting SCM on A1K and operating from unimproved strips/fields/beaches allows new attack vectors that dramatically changes the calculus for the Chinese. Think about a couple of A1Ks operating out of dirt strips where they were able to infiltrate unobserved. They pop up, launch a volley of SCM and immediately move on to a new dirt strip to rearm and refuel.Sad there is not a single comment on this...probably why we are stuck in a do loop of our own dogma. If done properly this will change everything. Also under the radar is the fact that the Marines are integrating the same missile on their Cobras. Now small platforms can operate from austere forward dirt strips, grass fields, beaches...and have a strategic impact be striking targets at distance with very short notice and from non-traditional attack vectors. 200NM is just the start, follow-on cheap weapons have been tested out at 600NM. Add the ability to swarm and you can hold adversaries at risk at a MUCH lower exchange ratio.
