ClearedHot

The bill is a freaking mess and nothing like what is was intended to be. Yes the tax cuts are extended but as you correctly point out, we need to address the debt. Look at defense spending, the requested number is actually a cut when you account for inflation. HOWEVER, they included a one time addition of $113B that pumps to DoD topline to $960B. Thats Fing crazy.

Thoughts, points and data were all mine, ChatGPT clears my typos....you should try it sometime.

Come on man, you are trying to over simply and using poor metrics. Counting oil wells....seriously. Follow the real numbers brother. Unleashing America's energy takes time and perception plays a very key factor in prices. I think Trump and most reasoned economists recognize oil is the key to our economy. It is fairly obvious that Trump won on the economy and the border. Please tell me you recognize the rampant inflation we saw during Biden's term was partially caused by the price of oil. The average per-gallon gasoline price during Biden's tenure so far has been $3.53, compared to $2.46 during Trump's term. Gas prices reached a record high of $5.01 per gallon in June 2022 during Biden's presidency. Knowing the economy needed relief I do believe his strategy was to convince OPEC to increase production because that was the fastest relief valve to lower the cost and thus impact all sectors of the economy. Oil Production Under President Trump: Understanding the Real Metrics There’s been a lot of debate about U.S. oil production during the Trump administration—but much of it misses the mark by relying on incomplete or outdated metrics. Let’s set the record straight with a clearer view of how energy policy, technology, and time all play a role. 1. Oil Production Lags Policy First, it’s important to understand that oil production doesn’t respond instantly to policy changes. Decisions around drilling, leasing, and exploration approvals often take years to show up in actual production numbers. Regulatory reform, permitting processes, infrastructure investments, and investor confidence all influence the pace at which policy becomes production. Much of the increase in output during President Trump’s term reflected both momentum from prior projects and a policy environment that supported continued expansion. 2. Counting Oil Wells Is Misleading It’s tempting to gauge the health of the oil industry by simply counting the number of operating wells—but that’s a false metric. The U.S. oil and gas sector has undergone a dramatic technological shift over the past decade, moving from vertical drilling to more productive horizontal drilling techniques. To put it in perspective: In 2014, the U.S. had over 1,031,000 operating oil and natural gas wells. By 2021, that number fell to about 916,000. Yet during that same time, horizontal wells surged from 99,000 to over 166,000—a 67% increase. Horizontal wells are far more efficient and yield significantly higher output per well than traditional vertical wells. So even with fewer total wells, production has continued to climb. 3. The Result: U.S. Oil Production Nearly Doubled Between 2014 and 2025, U.S. oil production nearly doubled, thanks in large part to advances in drilling technology and supportive policies that unlocked shale resources and incentivized development. The Trump administration played a key role in sustaining and accelerating this growth through deregulatory efforts and an energy-first agenda. Bottom Line Measuring U.S. energy output isn’t as simple as counting rigs or wells. To truly understand what drives production, you have to look at the whole picture: long-term investment, regulatory policy, technology adoption, and market dynamics. Under President Trump, the U.S. oil sector benefited from a favorable policy climate that helped unleash innovation and investment—leading to historic levels of production, even as the total number of wells declined.

They won't now which is some ways is great for long-term U.S. energy security because we can use these resources in the future. However, they will prime the pumps so to speak and get licensing approvals to use at their discretion now that the regulation is removed. These companies play long-ball. In the short-term they will seek to undo things Biden did: Banned future offshore drilling in certain areas: In early 2025, President Biden used executive authority to permanently withdraw over 625 million acres of federal waters from future oil and gas leasing. This withdrawal covers areas including the entire Atlantic and Pacific coasts, the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and portions of Alaska's Northern Bering Sea. Strengthened environmental regulations: The administration implemented a rule in 2024 requiring new offshore leaseholders to submit archaeological reports before drilling, placing a burden on operators, especially small producers. Cancelled or blocked leases: The Biden administration has revoked mineral leases, opted against issuing permits on existing fossil fuel leases, and canceled some lease sales. This includes cancelling oil leases in an Alaskan wildlife refuge and blocking new drilling in millions of acres in the state. Paused new oil and gas leases on public lands: Early in his term, Biden suspended new oil and gas leases on public lands for 60 days to review the program. Paused new oil and gas leases on public lands: Early in his term, Biden suspended new oil and gas leases on public lands for 60 days to review the program.

Yes, his policy is just that. If you think this chart tells the entire story....well I imply can't help you. There are so many layers and I would hope you know the price of oil is based largely on speculation and opinion. The impact of Trump saying those words after the election was enough to start the downward tend on the PPB. Also, Biden did a LOT Of damage with regulation and slowed approvals on applications. That will take time to undo and rebuild. Finally, while I think Trump wants us to be energy independent, he knew it would take time to increase U.S. production. His immediate goal was to get the PPB down as close as possible to $60...that is what fuels the U.S. economy. Everyone focuses on the investment deal he made with the Saudis, but little attention is paid to him getting OPEC to drastically increasing their production. In early April (just as financial markets were reeling from the trade war), the producer group announced it would be hiking May output by 411,000 barrels per day—three times the volume it had previously publicized. In May, it doubled down, maintaining the faster supply rate for June.

I don't follow futures either but you can play the game without chasing the actual product by playing the tools and enablers. My wife does a lot of research and leading up the election had a list of energy enabling companies that support exploration and production of energy sources. While oil is volatile with conflict, the longer-term trend based on Trump's policy is obviously drill baby drill. One example is the Weir Group ADR -a Scottish based engineering firm that supports the oil fields. We've made 25% on that investment year to date.

It's not over yet. Senator Clyde introduced an amendment yesterday which would basically end the NFA as it related to silencers and SBRs.

There is some context to his statement. Economically Russia is on the ropes, additional sanctions (which I support), could be the tipping point. While their military is viewed as a peer adversary, Russia's economy is far less impressive. Their GDP is 11th on the world list, coming in well below Italy, Canada and Brazil. The have taken massive losses and are unable to rebuild some key capabilities like the bombers that were lost in Operation Spider Web. This week Putin officially acknowledge the economic difficulties, some thing he never does but in this case he has no choice. The offensive expected in the summer of 2026 is likely their last gasp at victory in Ukraine. I understand and respect your opinion, I just think at a much higher strategic level Russia has been removed from the table as a major peer threat to the United States. Their military humbled and destroyed, likely 1 million casualties with as many as 250,000 soldiers killed, it will take them a generation to recover and we didn't lose a single American soldier.

Amen and how about the maintainers getting over half the fleet airborne at the same time!

Today SECDEF and CJCS gave an update brief on the attack on an Iran's nuclear facilities. A comment by the chairman was epic and deserves it's own thread. "I can assure you there is no beach volleyball at the Air Force Weapons School." – General Dan “Razin” Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, June 26, 2025

Sooo he didn't chicken out. And, all the prognostications about oil skyrocketing...well I hope you didn't bet on that. My portfolio was up a modest 1% today...that was after selling some things to make cash (just bought another piece of property).

I think he got lucky.