ClearedHot

I believe he has a deal with Gaetz to be AG. Will be interesting to see if he brings RFK into a complementary role with Massie, he certainly has a healthy living/healthy food agenda.

If he was smart he would bring Nicki Halley in to be Sec State. Would not be surprised to see him bring Chris Miller back to be the SECDEF. FBI won't change unless he fires Wray, he still has seven years left on his term...that being said he does have a propensity to fire people and Wray has been part of the broken FBI machine.

We are in violent agreement, everyday Russia continues the fight against Ukraine helps weaken them for a generation.

Now if Ammo prices will fall just a bit more I can finish filling the semi-truck trailer.

Pre-Market snap shot at 0751 EST Dow +1337 NASDAQ +332 S&P +132

One of the mistakes we make is to analyze adversary actions as if they are rationale actors...or that they make choices and decisions using the our metrics and guardrails. Putin has proven time and time again that he will accept extreme risk in the pursuit of short-term gains, especially when it comes to retribution. Two cases in point: 1. On 1 November 2006, Putin authorized the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko using Polonium 210 and UK SOIL. 2. In March 2018 authorized another assassination this time targeting Sergei Skripal, a British citizen who used to work as a Russian intelligence officer, and his daughter, Yulia, nearly died after coming into contact with Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent originally developed by the former Soviet Union. Take a step back and think about that, Putin used nuclear and chemical weapons on the sovereign soil of the UK, our closest NATO ally. Perhaps I've read the reports wrong but the story about the airplanes does not indicate they were trying to down the cargo planes, instead they wanted them to catch fire on the ground and cause chaos. I am guessing the devices were sophisticated a small but important distinction. There is much we will never know but the point is Putin is not afraid to make dangerous moves well outside the norms of the world order.

its over, Trump wins.

With the election a hugely under reported story. As you said, this is an act of war.

You have very valid questions and observations. Obviously Putin horribly underestimated Ukraine and world resolve to help them and Russia has paid a horrific price for his decisions. That being said I don't think his entire play on Ukraine was to have a launching pad for the rest of Europe. If Putin gets Ukraine he will own the bread basket of Europe and have another major bargaining ship to shape the behavior of other countries. He is already doing that with energy, control the food supply as well and he has some big sticks to get his way.

Unknown, but zero active duty American casualties and Russia will be unable to fight a peer/near-peer for a generation.

And their losses have increased exponentially...57,000 in Oct 2024 alone.

I am more impressed by the ECIPS. Break break...As previously reported N Korea sent 8,000 troops to Russia to train then on to the front. The Ukrainians just killed the first batch in a couple of drone strikes. A staggering report just came out of the Institute for The Study of War - They estimate that Russian has lost an average of 30,000 troops (killed or wounded), every month in 2024. In October alone they lost 57,000 troops. What a meat grinder.

A gun I have always wanted and never purchased (going to fix that soon), is the Henry Golden Boy 22 MAG. A buddy had one and it was a blast to shoot. Something about the 22 Mag....hot little round.

Marine Corps Blames Pilot Error for Crash of Malfunctioning F-35 in South Carolina Forest Kind of a fucked up situation with a non-aviator Commandant reaching in to roll this dude long after the fact. A quick summary of events, some of you may know more: 1. Crap Weather 2. Dude went missed approach 3. While on going missed his HMD glitches three times going blank - the report indicates no attitude information (assuming in the HMD), but does not say nothing about primary displays 4. The report says he lost his transponder AND radios 5. "With no visible reference to the horizon or ground, and unsure of which flight instruments he could trust, he perceived that the aircraft was still not responding to his commands to convert -- and therefore was out-of-controlled flight," 6. If you read the report (which is heavily redacted), they place the blame on the pilot "The investigation concluded that the mishap was a result of "pilot error" in that Del Pizzo incorrectly diagnosed the out-of-control flight emergency and "ejected from a flyable aircraft -- albeit under extremely challenging cognitive and flight conditions." 7. The report recommends NO punitive action against the pilot. 8. Leadership reviews the report, puts him back on status and sends him to a follow on command. 9. 100 days into new Command the Commandant does a second review of the report and decides to mort this guy in what can best be described as a perception kill. 2,000' in bad weather with a malfunctioning jet and your brain stem can't determine what is up and what is down...hard to blame a dude for punching because he is Spacial D.

As the fight went on there was a lot of data that showed MANY of the fighters were coming from foreign lands. The primary motivation is as you have noted, the Americans occupying. Most of my deployments were early on and the ROE, especially in the beginning, was very permissive as compared to later in the war. My first two deployments we were often cleared into a kill container and given free reign to shoot ANY vehicles. I can't tell you how many Toyotas we zapped, once we started shooting dudes with guns would pour out like a clown car. Interestingly, at least 50% of what I shot in that time period I found with my NVGs. Sensors are great but they are a soda straw. Using my NVGs I was able to scan large areas and would usually find a target within a few minutes. There were nights I went Winchester with a full combat load two hours into the Vul, landed at Bagram or Jalalabad, took another combat load and did it again. Gun over-heating limitations were a real thing. On my last two deployments I do recall the tight ROE, that being said, I never had a deployment where I did not shoot. Impossible to know it would have changed the national debt. Remember we can't view the conflict with only a 2024 optic...In the days after 9/11 we were sure there would be more attacks unless we acted and we would be a vastly different country had we just taken that hit on the chin and turned away. Beers, whiskey, coffee at my casa anytime for anyone that needs it.

TBM 850

I've gone back and forth in my mind a thousand times, nine deployments was it a waste? Our yardstick of success tends to be the end state which is valid but doesn't tell the whole story. While it sucks the Taliban are running Afghanistan today I prefer to think about it in different terms like a relative peace at home for 20 years. Afghanistan was a flame the drew a lot of bad moths and we killed them all over there instead of here. Not necessarily the perfect metric of winning and losing but if you step back there is value to what you did, it was not a waste. I cringe when I see the Vietnam comparisons. That was a fumbling bumbling proxy war against Russia, we wasted 58,220 American lives trying to keep South Vietnam "free." Our political and military leaders were stooges who tied our hands behind our back when it came to fighting. While far from perfect, the military was allowed to truly fight in Afghanistan and we created a killing machine that eliminated a lot of horrible humans. The effectiveness of the War on Terror will be debated for many years to come. Wars always get front-page press because of the drama. A few stats for perspective: From 2019 to 2022 107,941 Americans died from drug overdoses. From 2011 to 2021 110,000 Americans died due to drunk driving. 9/11 alone we lost 2,977 Americans. In 20+ years of fighting in Afghanistan we lost 2459 American service men and women.

Flew down last minute to attend the game with some Bros from college and my boy, scored some great seats. The game was closer than the final score, FSU found a way to pressure Cam with a series of Zone Blitzes...it worked and I hope we fix it in practice. What FSU could not stop was the run and it cost them. Miami running back Fletcher lost his father this week when he died unexpectedly, he honored his dad with an unreal performance. I was surprised at how civil both teams were given the rivalry...yes there was some back and forth but in between plays I saw a lot of shaking hands and laughing, especially in the secondary. There was a point in the second half went a FSU player went down hard and stayed down for a quiet a bit (they did not show the replay but I think he got knocked out). Most of the FSU players went down on one knee and the Miami players AND coaches quickly followed suit. Refreshing even in a rivalry game. FSU's QBs showed some grit, they are both going to be sore today. Minor gloating to follow - 2024 State Champs - The U!

Homer's TDS is so bad he is completely Tumbleweed.

As of a few minutes ago Israel has started it's retribution attack and is hitting Iran with strikes in Tehran proper.

SOH's Mom dealing with a Trump sign. video_56BA7HQ.mp4

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Buenos, I am not worth $100M...yet, but to think this plan will only impact the 11,000 or so people in this category is a fallacy. The negative implications of this policy will have a huge impact on the market and our economy regardless of your net worth. There are of course varying assessments but some of the ripple effects are outlined here.