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ClearedHot

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Everything posted by ClearedHot

  1. Job report shows a decrease in job....no shit when the Fed is raising rates. Next earnings will be reduced and layoffs will begin. OPEC cutting production means gas prices will go back up and inflation is here to stay. One simple move, increasing U.S. energy production, would have a HUGE benefit to the market and the economy but that is a third rail issue to this administration, so lets just drain the SPR. Thus, the pain will continue AND accelerate.
  2. Great question and one that hasn't been answered yet. In AMC's defense they do appear to be adapting to Mini's new emphasis of "lethality." Go back to last year when KC-Y was first suggested, that program flowed out of a CONOP study that showed a shortage in the number of tankers given to effectively service our toughest CONOPs (read INDOPACOM). That program identified the need for 300 more tankers...kind of staggering that we have let it get to that point but when you retire KC-135's, retire the KC-10 and the KC-36 is YEARS behind schedule you may have trouble executing your highest demand CONOP. KC-Y was written to address that gap but from a legacy CONOP employment perspective, likely the reason it died so quickly. Here is the major issue in my uniformed attack pilot mentality. AMC is a very corporate big blue organization, the largest consumer of jet fuel in the world, as such for many years they approach tanker contracts from a cost to provide a pound of gas on station. I get it...economies of scale is a valid point to consider but this is combat and the economies of scale model comes at the expense of combat capability. This methodology leads to ever bigger tankers that carry a massive payload of gas very efficiently. The problem with this model in PACOM is that it relies on large bases (runways), that must be protected. Specific to INDOPACOM we have settled on a fortress Guam strategy that is unsmart. If this goes hot over Taiwan Guam is going to eat 1,000 TBMs with sub 3 meter accuracy, to think a few patriot batteries are going to save the runway, the aircraft, the infrastructure is complete lunacy. Agile Combat Employment and austere operations has been talked about for several years but the only real action taken in the past few years is to harden and lengthen the runway at Tinian....wonderful, that is a bit northeast of Guam and now they can eat a bunch of TBMs as well. What is needed is an approach that dilutes the Chinese advantage in TMBs and increases the ability to present survivable gas where needed. Switching to a strategy that flips the calculus back on the Chinese means your requirements and criteria should be centered on combat capability rather than economies of scale. It appears USAF/AMC have decided to focus all attention on KC-Z with a family of systems approach which I applaud. Yes we need big wing tankers to provide large offloads, we also need blended wing LO tankers that can enable our 5th and 6th gen fighters as well as the B-2 and B-21. I think we also need a tactical tanker that provides flexibility and options. The ability to provide large amounts of gas from MULTIPLE approach axis without relying on large runways has a HUGE strategic benefit. Now that USAF/AMC have settled on KC-Y, I expect exercises, studies and experimentation that will test these ideas and shape requirements for the RFP that will come in a few years.
  3. Since Biden took office U.S. oil production has decreased by 3 Mil barrels per day. A few days ago despite Biden's hat in hand trip to Saudi, OPEC voted to decrease oil production by another 2 million barrels per day. Biden's response...disappointment and the release of more oil from the SPR. I would say they are inept but at this point it seems purposeful to drive this country off a cliff.
  4. This is what is wrong with the Air Force (and the Air National Guard) Oklahoma Air National Guard and Air National Guard leadership conspire to break the law after pilot dies
  5. Our legal system needs an overhaul. Monday night this asshat ran on the field and towards the players bench holding a smoking device. After being tackled and arrested he has now filed an assault report against the player and is filing suit for his injuries.
  6. I think in this case it would be the other way around. C-17 Production ended in 2015, the cost to restart the line alone would be multiples higher than options currently in production. Additionally, you would have the same boom development costs. Finally, the C-17 itself would cost three times as much before the previous two factors were added in. If you want to modify the existing birds, perhaps but the gap it would create in strat airlift would simply push the burden to CX which is even further out.
  7. Its been talked about but why? The aircraft is out of production, would cost more than a new tanker (actually three times what a KC-390 costs), and modifying the existing birds would cut an already strained strategic airlift fleet.
  8. I hope someone looks at the big picture (wishful thinking I know). What is the timeline to manufacture 450+ NP2000 props versus the timeline to manufacture 450+ new legacy barrel assemblies. If the timelines are even close it may be worth it to INVEST in the H's to keep them viable and FAR more capable for years to come.
  9. We as in the U.S. government and our allies. There is a LOT going on behind the scenes right now.
  10. We know who attacked the Nord Stream Pipe Line, We know how they attacked the Nord Stream Pipeline and we know why they attacked the Nord Stream pipline...those are facts. Currently responses are being "discussed and wargamed." There WILL be a response. What the response is and whether or not that response is ever publicized has yet to be determined.
  11. Interestingly, the A400 costs nearly double what the KC-390 goes for.
  12. Interesting two day bounce. The market thinks the Fed has done enough. Interestingly the next rate hike decision will be made four days before the mid-terms. My prediction, potential for 10% rally into 3Q numbers but then a pullback as layoffs and earnings downgrades start. I think there will be a huge bond market rally into next year. Fortune favors the brave...unless you are investing in Crypto...
  13. The sickness that is Woke Liberalism on full display. In the picture below is Steve Adler the mayor of Austin Texas, a "Defund the Police" zealot who as Mayor cut 1/3 of the police budget. Here we see him sleeping at the memorial for Officer Anthony Martin who died in the line of duty last month.
  14. From the analysis and past discussion with the Army I've seen so far, increasing the C-130 internal width by 8" would have made a dramatic difference but Lockheed would not budge (unlike BQZIPS's Mom). Still working the exact numbers to account for new equipment but it looks like that small change would yield an increase to between 30 and 40% of current rolling stock. As an aside, KC-390 has 14" more internal width.
  15. Except USAF doesn't want anymore C-130s, nor does the Army. FYI only 8% of the Army's rolling stock actually fits on the C-130, a problem Lockheed has known about for a LONG time and they don't care to fix.
  16. Yes, they used a plasma laser etching machine instead of acid etching to serialize the parts. This caused heat to radiate through the medal resulting in cracks on every one they have inspected so far. NP2000 looks really good right about now.
  17. Ole Kamala letting us know where we stand as Americans in a crisis after she said the administration would take "equity" into account when dividing up disaster relief as Hurricane Ian rips up the eastern coastline. "We have to address this in a way that is about giving resources based on equity, understanding that we fight for equality, but we also need to fight for equity." Not to be outdone Uncle Joe says "A vital part of preparing fur Hurricane Season is to "get vaccinated now."
  18. The foundational school of USAF leadership..."We will not lie, steal, or cheat, nor tolerate among us anyone who does. Furthermore, I resolve to do my duty and to live honorably, (so help me God)". I guess it doesn't count when it is the institution doing the cheating. Air Force Football Sanctioned for Recruiting Violations "The Action Network, citing sources, reported in May that the Falcons were being investigated for hosting high school prospects on campus during dead periods in 2020 and providing them with improper benefits." I am sure someone got a "Defiantly Promote" for that one.
  19. I am sad to hear that.
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