ClearedHot

Biden just banned Russian oil...will it matter? Sadly Biden could not resist the opportunity to spew his 9,000 unused leases talking point. That point is such a red herring. Do a little digging and look at how the administration administratively restricts efforts to actually explore and tap those leases. Want to do a seismic study to gain insight of the underground structure...apply for a permit that is delayed for years. Finally get that permit and you want to followup with some exploratory drilling...apply for a permit that is again delayed or challenged in court. Yes we have the highest oil production ever, yet we are still importing. I think point biggest point folks are trying to make is lets increase production to be completely energy independent. One other point on Keystone, I hate that the GOP latch onto it as the solution. Realistically it was simply about bringing Canadian oil to refineries in the south and would have a negligible effect. Keystone is more of a symbol that does messages to both the radical left and to the market as a whole. I agree with @nsplayr, lets have an energy abundance that gives us independence and options. I would also put some conditions on energy derived from public lands. Levy a tax or lease charge that diverts those profits to technology that reduces carbon emissions, removes carbon emissions or helps develop clean/renewable energy.

Are you related to Circle Back Jenn? She has been spewing that same lie for months. This narrative is a talking point right out of the Pravda playbook, Putin himself must smile when he reads it. Lets get to some facts about all of the "unused leases". - The law already requires companies to either produce oil and/or gas on leases or return the leases to the government – the so-called “use it or lose it” provision – generally in the first 10 years. - When a company acquires a lease, it makes a significant financial investment at the beginning of the lease in the form of a non-refundable bonus bid and pays additional rent until and unless it begins producing. - For federal onshore, the Mineral Leasing Act prevents any one company from locking up unproductive excessive federal acreage. - Developing a lease takes years and substantial effort to determine whether the underlying geology holds commercial quantities of oil and/or gas. The lengthy process to develop them from a lease often is extended by administrative and legal challenges at every step along the way. This administration discouraged American energy. For more than a year it has halted new federal leasing – key to future energy investment and production. It canceled energy infrastructure, blocked development in parts of Alaska, entertained new taxes to punish the U.S. energy industry and chilled future investment by signaling that oil and gas wouldn’t be part of America’s future energy mix. All last summer, the administration called on OPEC+ to increase its production more rapidly in the face of rising energy costs, bypassing American producers. Don't believe what either party says at that podium, do your own due diligence as am American and get to the facts. This administration has done everything within its executive, legislative and judicial power to thwart American energy production and the lease argument is simple propaganda meant to distract all the folks too lazy to look up the facts. A federal judge canceled major oil and gas leases over climate change

Uber left wing "journalist" Fareed Zakaria just published his "take" on CNN...on how to deal with the Ukrainian situation - "The U.S. should immediately pump all the oil it can. It should export as much natural gas as possible (including replacing all coal plants with natural gas). We should remove all sanctions from Venezuela and Iran and let them pump the market full of their oil" Everyone is worried about Putin being in a corner, to me it looks like Biden is in a corner with AOC and the Green New Deal Squad.

CNN has some very disturbing footage, it looks like the Russians are bombing and just leveling smaller towns outside Kyiv. One apartment building was hit and they think there are 100 people trapped int he wreckage but no one can get to them. Horrific images.

I don't know about you folks but I am sick to my stomach watching this unfold. I am older than most of you and I remember the cold war, there was always an uneasy feeling in the background as we looked across the wall at the USSR. I remember the joy and celebration when the wall came down, the hope, watching freedom on the faces of many formerly oppressed people. There is no reset button, our relationship with Russia will obviously be very dark for years to come, in my lifetime things will never be the same. I was watching CNN a little while ago and the story and picture of the Ukrainian Father crying over his dead son...I can't even process it thinking of my own son. Like many of you I flew a lot of combat missions and saw a lot of horrible things, but this is fucked up and it is only going to get worse. How will we be remembered by history? As we sit by and let potentially millions be slaughtered. I know there is no easy answer and we have peeled this onion every way possible but it is a hopeless feeling to watch this brave people getting mowed down.

He definitely miscalculated and I think that further demonstrates a weakness in the current Russian military. They have some very sophisticated equipment but thus far have very poorly integrated it into an effective combined arms force. We had an interesting project in war college where we were each assigned a country for a deep dive, I got Russia. Eventually I was able to travel to Russia and visit several cities and ministries including the FSB and varies branches of the Russian military. The project was not meant to develop a military intel assessment, rather broader "Freakanomics" approach that looked at economic/environmental/socioeconomic factors impacting the country and their ability to build and field a military force. One of the biggest surprises to me was the impact of the declining population in Russia. I won't regurgitate all of the numbers here but a quick snapshot form recent years illustrates their dilemma: The current birth rate for Russia in 2022 is 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021. The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020. The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019. The birth rate for Russia in 2019 was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018. Russia conscripts approximately 400,000 (previously it was 700,000), military age males each year for a 12 month term. Conscription is enormously unpopular in Russia because conscripts notoriously are subject to ill-treatment, malnutrition, and other abuse. Popular discontent with the treatment of conscripts reached new heights in the mid-1990s, when Russia's military leadership sent poorly prepared conscripts to fight in the war in Chechnya. Thousands of conscripts died. The punch line is Russia currently has approximately 1.4 million live births each year with of course half being women. That leaves 700,000 males to draw from each year. With normal disqualification issues in a population distribution they rapidly approach the point where they don't produce enough males each year to sustain this system. This is not to say Russia does not have a powerful military, but it does place some context on just how stretched they might be at the moment and I would argue losing people is far more impactful than equipment at this point.

I think his conventional forces are now stretched very thin. I've read reports of 200,000 troops dedicated to this effort. Any Putin attacks into Western Europe would open a front I am not sure he can defend at this point. I remain dumbfounded at how poorly his forces and equipment have performed. Mostly I am SHOCKED at how he has failed to integrated his air and land forces, they are almost operating as two independent operations. As we all know very well, airpower used properly in close alignment with ground forces is a huge asymmetrical advantage. It is almost as if he assumed his maneuver elements would be fully support be rotary wing and the Stingers have humbled that advantage.

If Putin starts slinging arty and FAE's into urban areas will the world still sit idly by? There are an estimated 3 million people still in Kyiv. There is even concern Putin will resort to tactical nukes given his fumbling army, what happens then? This sad story is FAR from over and it could get MUCH worse.

Fuel and food.

And the Russians moved the S400 forward...

FWIW - Longtime Ukrainian SU-27 demo pilot shot down and killed by an S400. Ukraine Mourns Death Of Former Su-27 Flanker Display Pilot Col. Oksanchenko Shot Down Near Kyiv

MSNBC is hiring and they have no plans of changing their communist manifesto pronunciations.

Right out of Red Dawn, an abandoned Russian modern T-72B3 with "Glory to Ukraine" painted on hit. Stingers have taken a toll. Strella.mp4 Putin is throwing submunitions into urban areas, almost certainly a war crime.

Ouch.mp4

Ukraine.mp4

The Turkish drones Ukraine bought are inflicting a LOT of losses and casualties on the Russians. Boom.mp4

Russia using Cluster Munitions (not sure if air dropped or artillery) in an urban area. Cluster.mp4 They splashed another Helo (Mi-35/24). Helomp4.mp4 Ukrainians captured a SAM system. Sam.mp4

Ukrainians have unleashed their drones...Shocked the Russians let this happen. Tracking a thread with a LOT of pictures of Russian armor and trucks that are MESSED up. The Ukrainians are some bad Mo Fos. RPA.mp4 RPA2.mp4