ClearedHot

He definitely miscalculated and I think that further demonstrates a weakness in the current Russian military. They have some very sophisticated equipment but thus far have very poorly integrated it into an effective combined arms force. We had an interesting project in war college where we were each assigned a country for a deep dive, I got Russia. Eventually I was able to travel to Russia and visit several cities and ministries including the FSB and varies branches of the Russian military. The project was not meant to develop a military intel assessment, rather broader "Freakanomics" approach that looked at economic/environmental/socioeconomic factors impacting the country and their ability to build and field a military force. One of the biggest surprises to me was the impact of the declining population in Russia. I won't regurgitate all of the numbers here but a quick snapshot form recent years illustrates their dilemma: The current birth rate for Russia in 2022 is 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021. The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020. The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019. The birth rate for Russia in 2019 was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018. Russia conscripts approximately 400,000 (previously it was 700,000), military age males each year for a 12 month term. Conscription is enormously unpopular in Russia because conscripts notoriously are subject to ill-treatment, malnutrition, and other abuse. Popular discontent with the treatment of conscripts reached new heights in the mid-1990s, when Russia's military leadership sent poorly prepared conscripts to fight in the war in Chechnya. Thousands of conscripts died. The punch line is Russia currently has approximately 1.4 million live births each year with of course half being women. That leaves 700,000 males to draw from each year. With normal disqualification issues in a population distribution they rapidly approach the point where they don't produce enough males each year to sustain this system. This is not to say Russia does not have a powerful military, but it does place some context on just how stretched they might be at the moment and I would argue losing people is far more impactful than equipment at this point.

I think his conventional forces are now stretched very thin. I've read reports of 200,000 troops dedicated to this effort. Any Putin attacks into Western Europe would open a front I am not sure he can defend at this point. I remain dumbfounded at how poorly his forces and equipment have performed. Mostly I am SHOCKED at how he has failed to integrated his air and land forces, they are almost operating as two independent operations. As we all know very well, airpower used properly in close alignment with ground forces is a huge asymmetrical advantage. It is almost as if he assumed his maneuver elements would be fully support be rotary wing and the Stingers have humbled that advantage.

If Putin starts slinging arty and FAE's into urban areas will the world still sit idly by? There are an estimated 3 million people still in Kyiv. There is even concern Putin will resort to tactical nukes given his fumbling army, what happens then? This sad story is FAR from over and it could get MUCH worse.

Fuel and food.

And the Russians moved the S400 forward...

FWIW - Longtime Ukrainian SU-27 demo pilot shot down and killed by an S400. Ukraine Mourns Death Of Former Su-27 Flanker Display Pilot Col. Oksanchenko Shot Down Near Kyiv

MSNBC is hiring and they have no plans of changing their communist manifesto pronunciations.

Right out of Red Dawn, an abandoned Russian modern T-72B3 with "Glory to Ukraine" painted on hit. Stingers have taken a toll. Strella.mp4 Putin is throwing submunitions into urban areas, almost certainly a war crime.

Ouch.mp4

Ukraine.mp4

The Turkish drones Ukraine bought are inflicting a LOT of losses and casualties on the Russians. Boom.mp4

Russia using Cluster Munitions (not sure if air dropped or artillery) in an urban area. Cluster.mp4 They splashed another Helo (Mi-35/24). Helomp4.mp4 Ukrainians captured a SAM system. Sam.mp4

Ukrainians have unleashed their drones...Shocked the Russians let this happen. Tracking a thread with a LOT of pictures of Russian armor and trucks that are MESSED up. The Ukrainians are some bad Mo Fos. RPA.mp4 RPA2.mp4

World's largest cargo aircraft was destroyed during a Russian attack on an airfield, Ukrainian minister says

We need India to speak up, they are a formidable force that has been a foil to both Russia and China.

Also, video and other reports of Russian armor stopped and out of fuel. As has been noted Logistics wins wars and it appears Putin's general seriously underestimated the pace and size of this conflict. While he is approaching on numerous fronts I would think that greatly complicates his logistical trail. Russia has seriously under performed and others have noted they likely would not fair well in a Fulda Gap conflict with NATO. Other reports show captured Russian soldiers who were conscripts and were told they were going on an exercise. They could have been playing to the camera but they certainly seemed dismayed and distraught. The sanctions are already hitting Putin and Russians. Many reports of Russians rushing to ATM machines and businesses asking to be paid in dollars. With Putin increasing his alert nuclear status and his invasion turning into a nut roll, what options does he have. Some have suggested he is mentally altered in the past year, with that in mind I hope we (the west), provide an obvious off ramp that stops his form being forced into a corner.

For those who want a bit more depth here is a crowd sourced real time order of battle map. Incidents are crosslinked with video and social media reports: https://liveuamap.com/ Another interesting but far less organized source is Snap Map I don't use Snap Chat but this site allows you to click on a particular area and individual snaps the residents are postings. Snapchat is obviously more focused on the younger crowd. I poked around yesterday and there were numerous posts from teenagers who fully grasp what is happening.

Yesterday the Brits came out and said they won't stop any of it's citizens from going to fight in Ukraine. Int he past they arrested and prosecuted those going to Afghanistan. Reason #69 why you don't try to Hellfire Putin. The odds of this spilling outside of Ukraine is sadly increasing. Good to see Germany step up with both equipment and Swift banking sanctions but we still have not targeted their oil...yes there would be many second and third order effects if we did.