Hey dude, little old now, but hopefully these words from a passed-over career O-4 will help. The pilot shortage is real. We need pilots, especially pointy-nosed dudes. When my cc told me I was passed over, he gave me stats on how few 11Fs are in my year group (low double digits), and said we’ll try again next year. I seriously doubt I have a shot at O-5, but the AF needs pilots. If you want to stay in and keep flying, the AF is going to be all about it. I had 3 buddies get passed over for O-3 last year. 2 said they didn’t want to promote and wanted to bail. The third guy was a good guy, terrible pilot, and got picked up for O-4 this year.
The new promotion system is trash. If you really want to make O-4, let your boss know and try to stand out. Expect the worst, but plan for the best.