hindsight2020

yabut the capitalization malfeasance is the elephant in the room here, and should have been congressionally investigated decades ago. Who are we kidding, it's Congress the one fometing it in the first place. At any rate, you can't handwave that away just because one thinks you have to coddle these careerists' balls in order to get anywhere. This entire situation could have been solved decades ago with COTS solutions that don't impact national security. But industry is a grift machine, and they get in the way every time. Our Country has turned (especially since the 2020 M2 theft, some could argue TARP in '08 was the first mask off moment) into merely a trans-national Economic Zone for arbitrage and exploitation; our Nationhood strikes me as specious these days if I'm being honest. The T-7 dumpster fire is not the bug, it's the FEATURE. A cohort of people, civilians (veterans even) with very little skin in the game otherwise, are getting paid very well for that thing to fail upwards, is my point. Meanwhile the rest of the world laughs at our worn-out infrastructure. Attempting to distract with "psychology of learning" sophistry will not get us to where need to be. You mention not dismissing COAs out of hand. Care to ask that of these uniformed politicians? They sure have a penchant for shooting down COAs left and right, even cost-neutral ones. The biggest one being retention as a stated goal. Nope, never that. Rather surrender to Putin than allow the chatel any discretion in how they keep their home life intact while doing what 99% of the civilian US population deems an occupational choice only fit for "suckers" or economic refugees/people without a better option. 1x addtl base worth of production. That's it. Could even make it a tenant wing of an existing installation (Moody) and still get there. But that requires COTS on the capital + homesteading/QoL/$-equivalent incentives on the personnel side. The T-7 is a poison pill to that COA, as are the whiny competing MAJCOMS that bitch about production and quality control, but won't pay their share of the bill either. I can already hear the shrieking by the FTUs over remediatory training if and when this brain dead idea of future regional pilots setting the military flying fundamentals is ever allowed out of the lab in Wuhan. And they'll try to blame PIT/UPT IPs for that too. *shrugs* I prefer not meeting fiscal end-strength manning, over fraticide in the name of political expedience. Call me a bleeding heart. I'll close out my comments on this thread by adding that, as I round out my sanctuary zone into check of the month IDGAF land, that's really my only personal COA left: try to impart as much flying life hacks onto these kids before they get sent over with not enough hours and air sense as I was afforded. To each their own and all that shit, good luck to all. Cheers.

You'll never be able to make personal/moral appeals to these political appointees. Besides, Congressional pork is higher than even their pay grade. That out of the way, let's address that "shitting on" stray bullet you threw in there. If you're talking about my criticisms, you can tone-police my delivery all you want. That's just "Tuesday" in my life/put it on my tab type of thing. The point is that the premise behind all that pick-me coding, hoop-jumping passed as "innovation", is that you can't lobby for the money for the proven solution in the first place. Don't get it twisted, and let me bold the answer for the reading comprehension challenged, as I see the question of root cause keeps popping up. The ENTIRE COA is couched on the private knowledge that the enterprise has been so undercapitalized for so many decades, they can't meet production quotas. And that became an inconvenient boo boo when the airlines stopped sucking again for a fart and a half after 14 years of constipation. Period end of story. Rest of their pitch is as I said, sophist ballwash, I don't care what overpaid cRafT contractor, or civilian 121 job chasing, lawnmower-time builder that offends. Again, for the johnny come lates in the back: This isn't about "efficiency". That's just a bullshit plausible deniable premise that keeps polyannas appeased, and which powerless Generals glob onto as a notch until they can get their revolving door NoVA civilian follow-on. What this is about, is Exodus 5 (vers 6-9, no shit). It's so obvious to the peanut gallery, even illiterate Bronze age goat herders managed to finger paint it on a book of effin' parables JFC. Pun very much intended. 😄 So with all due respect as I sincerely enjoy your brainstorming sessions on here, spare me the ingénue "we just trying to train the kids here man" all-hands-on-deck pep rally. These are politicians (yes, even the uniformed ones) working from a position of dishonesty and career self-dealing; these are not honest-broker problem solvers. Go get mad at them for not having a spine. Don't cast me a malcontent just because I display umbrage about unnecessary O-2/3 deaths at the altar of quality control dilution and political expediency, while being told I'm part of the problem for demanding no more resources than what was afforded to me when I was in those now dead O-2's flying experience position.

*yawn* more sophistry. I'm already on record, I only timestamp these rants on the interboobs so the forensics can go back in 10 years and go "yep, we knew". We've been through this all the way back to 2018 fam; it is a dilution of quality, definitionally. Tell your bosses to put down the hopium pipe and grow a back bone, and tell their SES overlords at the Puzzle palace to tell SecAf no buck no buck rogers. Kids need new MILITARY trainers and hours with their brain behind their ass at .7M+ and no automation, herbie drivers too. I was a CFII before I touched a single military airplane, let alone instructed in one; I can speak 61/141/135/121/one-WGAF. I was also in academia before the military; I know ballwash pseudointellectual fodder for paper degree issuance when I read it. Hell, I used to teach it! 😄 To the degree which civ-only folks don't understand the historical rigor behind undegraduate USN/USAF military aviator accessions and initial traning, it is also true that many mil-only folks really don't understand the quality control morass that is 141 (forget 61). I won't rehash the dissertation on here, the BLUF is that abrogating our military pilot accessions to 141 is to admit defeat. Considering the US record as a combat operational loss leader for the past 50 years, I guess losing at pilot training is par for the course too. Empire in decay, happens to the best of 'em I guess. Honestly, I'd be more on board if they just cut the shit and 1) admitted they can't effectively lobby Congress for more cowbell for the UPT enterprise, and 2) admitted they have to send it to the civilian prop schools just to pad the logbook with negative transfer hours of little import. Heck, by that cockeyed COA's order of merit alone, again just cut the shit and go full up MPL (Euro standard, sim only) for your copilots (3/4 of pilot accessions for the USAF) and put their money where their mouth is. Padding the 141 with excess federal pork is the only thing this will accomplish anyways. Excess crew deaths down the line in grey jet initial/continuation training are on them though, not on us dinosaurs "getting in the way".

I can't not read that without spongebob voice inside my skull lol. Well done. Also reminded me I'm so effing old I can still remember these threads. Oof. P.S. I need better hobbies than internet trolling, but Powell stole my life's purchasing power parity, so 'tis all I can afford. Digressing.

Not the totality of the dynamic, but the main issue is an accessions/compensation chasm, like everything else in life. No buck no buck rogers. As an employment demographic? No, I don't think you're working with the best psychologically suited for the job; giving some of these types lethal force legal arbitrage is a poor bet all around. Frankly, the compensation situation in some jurisdictions is so bad you attract the exact wrong temperance for the job, as a Hobson's choice. Everybody loses in that deal. Just like educators, you can't afford the people you presume to want. The thin blue line stuff is also caustic and tribal. I argue if jurisdictions paid and thus had the ability to accessions-discriminate to the standard needed, the qualified immunity issue would be moot. #hottake

The irony of that post is gold. Pretty sure it was a United crew that almost Asiana'd a triple siete out of Maui.

You're not new, you know this song and dance already. They have a retention self-created "problem" due to crap QOL post-UFT ADSC and people becoming older heads of household. By proxy that becomes a production problem, because they decided to fill the gaps with new accessions instead of addressing the original self-created problem, full stop. The real problem for them is that they also don't have the political capital to make undergraduate pilot training (an enterprise already scoffed at as scutwork by many within the combat coded echelons, ACC/11Fs in particular) a capitalization priority, but the Pharaoh demands more brick. Boeing being a malicious MIC grifter doesn't help matters on that effort. This thing should have been COTS solved 5 years ago (and it would have, both COTS solutions were plug and play and operational for DECADES). At any rate, in the absence of political capital, all you can do is kabuki dance. So in comes the sophistry: "CRAFT""VR""UPT NEXT""Innovate!". Then the secondary effort to strawman objective critics of the obvious, as anachronistic malcontents that are getting in the way of progress (that's yours truly and company btw). That's how you get the current status quo. An enterprise dead set in fixing a retention problem they created, by digging themselves into a production problem they can't control, via diluting the quality control of the product and insist you don't dare say publicly they are. Then wash their hands when the core competency and loss rate of the grey jets become too public for the senior management in the DC swamp to stomach. Since this COA exceeds the median VML cycle, it's plausibly deniable. None of this is conjecture, it's my lived experience since oh say, fiscal '18? Through all the jokes, the meme witchhunts on instagram, the non-judicial punishments, and all the banter on here about the leadership changes you highlight, they have been the most emphatic about never tolerating the utterance that these SGTO evolutions are a dilution of quality. Most RegAF just doesn't have that corporate memory because they PCS too frequently. But Pepperdige Farms (AFRC) remembers. The all-contractor wet dream they've always had is also DOA, because Congress won't let them touch the pork earmarked for the aforementioned localities. So we're stuck in this morass, and more young guys will end up dead for it, before somebody finally tells HAF to KIO and addresses the capitalization of this enterprise with the gravitas it deserves.

anecdotally I can tell you the FWQ program was there to reinforce a lot of those deficiencies, but no stated letter would ever be public. From my recollection it was always couched under the assumption the fixed wing fundamental from army undergraduate was simply too short for the usaf liking, not necessarily driving a pointed aspersion at the quality control of army under grad training, green bag or contractor alike. Concur with the prior comments regarding data mining via GTIMS. The point about UPT 2.5 is valid (garbage product imo), but you can easily compile multi decade samples predating the 2.5 sophistry distraction, and still get a good control group wiht the SUPT 1.0 AF and USN kids. Access to the data in a way that can be mined will be the hurdle.

"CrossFit" chicks with a 4,069:1 M:F "friend" ratio on FB not wife material? Shocked I say.....

no buck, no buck rogers. In fairness, they probably know no amount of differential pay for battallion command would make a dent in the calculus for the individuals in question. Reference: pilots and the airlines et al. Hell forget staff, some of us ARC B-teamers are happy doing O-3 work as O-5s to 20+. But the system has never respected nor rewarded technicians. As far as I'm concerened, we're even. I'm too old to GAF about what I can't change anymore. Take care of número uno and I don't mean flight lead. Sounds like more than 50% of these folks are doing just that. Lastly, I don't know if it's the writing style, or the audience they think they're trying to reach, but the naiveté of the way these articles read as written is perplexing, as if they legit discovered the nature of this dynamic yesterday. No way Pentagon management is thaaaaat tone deaf to not know this. They are the echelon we expect to forumulate strategic war policy against a peer enemy, and you're telling me they're puzzled about some low-level subordinate manning, basic as hell behavioral economics retention calculus? Jaysus.

...Or seen me naked. Lots of nudity that week for some reason, maybe I was the patsy again (username checks...).

I'll save the UMPR inside baseball details given the medium, but yeah man the pot has been sweetened to the point of pre-diabetes. As close as it gets to taking cash straight from the register, and making a mockery of the JTR. ...we're nowhere near healthy manning at the garden variety locations. T-1 divesture upended a lot of lives, though bolstered the T-6 manning, temporarily. Pointy side we've been on the street for a while. At Mecca the manning is the diametrical opposite, and we get our hiring pools constantly poached to add insult to injury; the epitome of my freggin' point about basing in the first place. The air reserve technician program is ill-suited to handle these basing problems. I looked at big New england, hell even sunbelt metro first responder retirements, and realized we're getting so screwed on the Fed side. FERS is a joke. There should be no reason a 2181 occupational code GS should have a lesser retirement multiplier than a FDNY stripper pole waxer, or ATC or CBP/AMO for that matter. Don't get me started on the health insurance. That COA was ran out of town and they had to turn it off in disgrace, when they tried it here over a decade ago. AGR is the best bandaid they could throw at it and it's not enough in present circumstances, mainly due to the money printing of 2020-2022 leaving the DoD pay tables behind. They're not gonna upend the entire ART program over a half dozen Chernobyls they can't properly staff anyways. So we'll keep doing the semi-legal shit we're doing and see what sticks, until something fails too visibly and/or a congressperson or Service Chief/Secretary gets embarassed. This stuff isn't complicated. The regaf exit polls are clear: people don't want to do this shit to themselves and their families, when the airlines offer the pay in short order and dwelling flexibility.

Once again, it's about duty location basing. Also known as Occam's razor. That variable is also above the entire HAF paygrade. It's Congressional big boy pork barrel we're dealing with here; it's a non-starter. As I've stated ad naueam, RegAF non-vols will continue to be the placeholders for this mission set. With almost 2 decade lived experience, and current intimate knowledge of the UMPR on the ARC side of the very enterprise in question, all due respect some of you guys are speaking from ignorance or wishful thinking if you think the ARC or civilians can ever take over this mission set. Certainly not on an Active Associate basis. BL, you need desirable MSA-colocation/adjacency period dot, for any non-REGAF majority manning COA to ever breathe on its own. And you won't get the former from Congress. When they say thank you for your service, this is what those uppity civilians in affluent low-servicemember per capita desirable areas of the Country really mean. Whether some of us do this concessionary shit to our families for Country or for economic transaction (aaand I plead the 5th on that, at this juncture in my so called career), it matters none. To Congress, this Hobson's choice is not the bug, it's the feature.

manning climate, and openings by proxy, is very unit location dependent. Doesn't take a genius to figure out which are which. As to competitiveness in the aggregate? Honestly it tracks pretty inversely proportial with airline hiring at the time.

Sure RND is an option, just not immediately for someone external to the 340th who isn't already a 559/560/435th line-cutter at the time of regAF separation. For everybody else, it's usually a "go put in your time at the salt mines" before the RND units give ya audience. Military 3-rules of life type of thing.

I'm on the same boat regarding that point. I never had a problem negotiating that conclusion either, but I have nothing but empathy for those who struggle with what essentially is a public loss of their religion. I lost my OTS class leader to green-on-blue over there. Complete waste of potential; a solid human being and family man at the hands of a distrungled and corrupt local. A true believer my friend was, and a bona fide hero in my eyes. Such Heroism wasted on an unreedemable place, and unreedemable people. I got too many stories of personal corruption and cowardice from that so called allied force, even stateside. Fuck. That. Place. In the macro, I never bought into any of that shit. Our self-defense Air Power objectives in that shithole were largely completed by 2003 from where I saw it as a civilian college student. That was a full 3 years before I would even see the inside of a military building. So 9/11 was never a draw for me. Lord knows I disagreed with the second invasion of Iraq from the jump, as I also disagreed with the criminal decision to disband the Iraqi Army (may Paul bremer and his blood-soaked hands burn in hell.... a lackey of Kissinger, this is my shocked face). Full circle now during my time in, we get tasked to bomb the predictable offspring of that decision 10 years later in Syria, and I'm supposed to put my brain on pause and grab some pom poms? Nah I'm good. It was a waste when my friend Nylander lost his life, and it was still a waste in the Levant as we wrecked strategic heavy bombardment assets over turkey shoot medals with what could have been accomplished with surplus Yak-52s and recreational AR rifles a la Texas hog hunts. Digressing. In due credit to the Service, it did afford me the opportunity (via ARC) to focus on a role I not only could tolerate for 14+ years, but personally thrive in. I was always an aviatior purist at heart. I've never been fazed by the "flying for the sake of flying" supposed aspersion it's meant to imply, usually uttered by cOmBaT veT true scots fallacy merchants. I've legit enjoyed the amount of upside down flying the service has afforded me as a career instructor. Much bigger sense of personal accomplishment, in what conservatively is circa 500+ individual pilots and still counting. My time in the CAF left me rather unfulfilled by comparison, though that was a combination of poor career timing and luck (BRAC 05 no fighter soup fo you, TAMI-21, then PRP/PACAF babysitter bitch while the bones got all the turkey shoots). At any rate, my decades spent building something of personal import to me in the training command is a legacy that will outlive both me, as well as all of Uncle sammy's bullshit wars... and I'm here for it. We all have our rationalizations, I won't apologize for mine. My username checks. Now FUPM. 😄

Between post-IFF delays, any DNIF or performance issues, and the biggie, the delay to get to UPT start class via Guard slots in present circumstances, and yeah a 5 year development window to 11F TI/MQT is not that out of the zone.

On the bolded, bit of a misnomer. You're just describing the 6-day bundle. The neophytes might misunderstand what you mean. That sequence is not a requirement, merely a TR preference given the exigencies of getting to/fro some of these garden spots. Think of it just like airline commuters: They want the least traveling cycles per capita compensation. As such, bundling works best. It is not the only way to do it however. The participation requirements are spelled out in the application packet. But that's legalese, the reality is a lot more fluid. At the end of the day, this job is for those who like to fly upside down (T-1s AFRC spots are being slowly divested as we speak, TBD on full stop date) for uncle sugar when not doing their airline or whatever. It's not for everyone, just like the airlines. The locations have always been stipulated, so I don't get the aggrievement over the knowns. We make Gumby out of the JTR, to get people to come here. Suffice to say not all AFRC/ANG units exhibit anywhere near that level of flexibility; geographically they just don't have to. It's not complicated really. Don't look at a gift horse in the mouth type of thing.

Yeah the CAL/UAL one was a nasty one at my squadron back in 2011-2013. We had a boatload that took long MLOA while the lists integrated. Pretty heated stuff among so called squadronmates. A bit embarassing as an external observer tbh, given the fact they had no control over the process, and the personal aspersions were nothing more than impotent rage. Things settled as they always do, the world moved on, and they're still richer today than yesterday and will retire as multimillionaries anyways. Boo hoo.

Reduced benefits to be exact. My particular exchange's demographic happened to be a group of retired combat arms Army officers. One went so far as to imply there is a degree of stolen valor from veterans who receive benefits (retirement or otherwise) whose service lack the combat prefix as they see it. They also proudly display "combat vet" bumper stickers on their pov, with the combat underlined. Real divisive stuff. At any rate, when I hear this back and forth on here about combat cred among airframes, as a timing/circumstantial REMF I of course handwave it away as the usual friendly banter. But it does take me back to exchanges with people who do hold quite radical and incisive views of what qualifies as honorable service. One for whom the DoD's decision to recognize/compensate veteran service on an equal footing, is considered very much an affront to their own.

As a career REMF and former CAF guy during a time when MWS got told to sit on its hands and navel-gaze in PACAF, I'm completely indifferent to the back and forth of proving one's ego/legitimacy in life via these anecdotes. But, there is a cohort of veterans who unironically advocate for the means-testing of outright retirement benefits based on a combat service metric. Nasty and divisive undercurrent if I ever heard one; I can't break bread with those people. And I do challenge those utterances publicly, as letting that narrative stand unchallenged can be materially important to all of us. Thankfully, even Congress isn't as myopic so as to buy into such nonsense as a matter of policy. Brittle egos abound.

TLDR version: Finland proves you can exercise deterrence against a numbers-bully. No capitulation on your sovereignty required. Wordy version: Russia doesn't have any incentive to negotiate back to pre-Donbas annexation, so that's not gonna happen. They'll keep throwing their expendables at the grinder, as is the way of that ghastly Russian so-called Federation, which in all honesty has always been a shaky held one at the point of many rusty, but outnumbering guns. Ukraine could capitulate even more territory, but all it buys them is time for the next assault. Ivan will come for them again. The Ukranians need to read the Finnish playbook more deeply. Finland almost went the way of Ukraine historically, but managed to reach the lifeboat with NATO membership and more importantly, a very strong homeland-defense prepositioning policy. Finland is the mother of all, living-defensive line. Heck even shouldering up with the actual Nazis was necessary in order to bloody up the bear's nose, no fucks given by Finland. Life is grey, at least for us Realists. Fact is if Lenin hadn't been so easy on Finland the first time (1910s) they broke away from Russia, theirs would be a similar story as today's Ukraine. So people need to give Ukraine a bit more benefit here on the whole capitulation front. Remember, population wise, Finland is a piddly tiny country compared to Ukraine, yet the deterrence outcomes between the two are stark. Yes, Ukraine got saddled with the Soviet Union proper after WWII, that's of course the biggest historical obstacle. Let's also remember that Finland too, gave up some land. But then they effected a brilliant homeland deterrence policy for a Country of such small size. Ukraine needs to go full Finn once any cease fire is afforded to it. The Finns don't forget the 11% they gave up to this day, and neither should Ukraine.

Ti's jUst mY mOdeRhUd bRO! 😅

I had similar bad timing/unsuccessful at snagging a fighter unit spot when I was in my 20s, and I was in much worse econ position than you in that I wasn't making major FO money at such a young age, nor had the flying quals to be one during the lost decade. I still wouldn't enlist for the sake of a UPT slot, it's a very low percentage play in the aggregate. Odds are you'll end up spinning your wheels and end up encumbered with the impositions of an enlisted job that isn't really going to add much to your primary income generation career. As to fighter or die thing, I get it, I resembled the remark too. Given my experience with the process, and my own outcomes and history now as a middle aged guy within spitting distance of the jelly of the month, I know what advice I'd give you, if you weren't a major FO already. ..But you are one already. As such, I'd just focus on your airline career and fund the F1-rocket/Gamebird airplane fund if you can't get a fighter spot tbh. But I'm me, I'm not you. Good luck to ya.

It also attempts to address a non-problem, that of idle bodies with a long ADSC balance. The DOD doesn't care. Retention of their experienced chattel is an actual material concern for the DOD, and they still don't care enough about it to give up an inch on the 'control' line item of the ledger. And that's fighting separation-eligible bodies they have actually sank millions of dollars in recurrent training in. Good bad or indifferent, BITers simply are in the weakest negotiating position of their entire careers. Their only reprieve is that their clock is running post winging. Now, the AF goes and changes the contract to functional AFSC complete before clock starts (aka core ID other than 92T), and all bets are off. That would def sour the entire batch writ large, and cause all sorts of second tier morale effects all the way up the training pipeline to the op units. In fairness to the borg, there's no indication they've gotten that greedy.