hindsight2020

Origin story of my screen name. In short, don't do it, it's not worth it nor necessary. Let my life regret be your cautionary tale. 😄

I was rocking the last-minute cut-out fabric off my black T-shirt from the black boot days, folded through two rubber bands. Look like a ghetto Shinobi. Fit's worth a shit but hey, 'resiliency'. 😄 Sounds like sage advice for that SECNAV clown to take right about now.

What thing? Not getting promoted to O-4, or not getting continued?

Excellent point. Provided he's continued.

Unfortunately, selective continuation for passed over O-3s is only to 20. Being retirement eligible makes it an even cleaner kill from an ARPC/NGB pov. There ain't gonna be a manning deficit any time soon I can tell you that much. My host AD unit is already overmanned as of the summer based on all the rescinded separation/retirement packets that have occurred in the past 3 weeks. Everybody is running back to Uncle sammy's teet, not enough chairs to go around. We all live and die by the dick swings of the airline industry, even those of us not part of the airlines. 100% chance of not getting what you don't ask for, so by all means ask the question and position yourself as best you can. Def get your PME done/award lined up if you have time, but mentally prepare to be invol retired. Good luck man.

A few reasons: 1) The cost to build a modern experimental doesn't pencil out on a resale basis compared to the fully discounted acquisition price of a 40+ year old legacy spam can 4/6 seater. Which is why I was so hot after the primary non-commercial category (and of course the FAA snuffed it). RV-10s on a resale basis make no sense compared to a used up SR-22, Saratoga SP or F33C. Granted, I'd take the RV-10 any day based on the maintenance and parts allowances alone.... but not for housing money, which is where both the RV-10 and the SR-22/Toga/F33C live. Builders are of course, generally insensitive to that argument. I personally don't like that litmus test, which is why I have a bone to pick with the 51% rule, but that's for another day. In a perfect world (and that's where MOSAIC comes into play), EAB resale owners would have the legal ability to inspect their personally-owned experimental in the same way they are allowed to do so with a repairman-inspection certificate in the E-LSA realm. But that's a tangent, it still doesn't address the acquisition price non-starter between the few 4-seaters in EXAB land and old certified 4 seaters. As much as I detest the certified rules, and have my seasonal bouts with wanting to chuck the thing, the reality is that I'm orders of magnitude of money ahead with the spam can on a total yearly outlay than attempting to capitalize an RV-10. Not even close. That's unfortunately the way the cookie crumbles in my world where cost is an object. It is what it is. It is certainly no small part of why the hobby is dying with the younger generation, and I digress. 1a) To be clear, the cost delta to assemble a 4 seater and a 2-seater fixed gear airplane is trivial. The engine choice cost is also trivial. Yes a 4-seater would call for a bigger engine to be competitive, but a Lycoming 540 is no more expensive to overhaul in its parallel valve variant than a Lyco 360 of angle valve variant. Hell, a 540 is cheaper to overhaul than a Lyco 390, with insanely priced jugs. BL, it's not a materials or engine cost. It's merely a CAPEX one because of the prevailing depreciated price of certified 4-seaters. 1b) Very few builders are interested in assembling the equivalent of an experimental grumman Tiger (essentially a 4-seater RV, aka putting a 4 banger on and RV-10 and making it a 3-seater like all sub-200hp certified 4-seaters are and why they're priced the way they are). Nobody in builder land does that, which is why there's no affordable 4-seaters in EAB. The only other options are oddball Velocities with T-38 runway requirements, equally horrid high DA performance specs and family unfriendly cabin volumetrics, or hen's teeth fiberglass constructed offerings in the orphan "plans-built" market I wouldn't strap in on if the choices were that or get COVID-19. 2) Demographics. Good bad or indifferent, the preponderance of the experimental market is empty nester boomers, or childless couples. The heads of household who do partake do so where the decision was made the spouse was not interested in flying, or there was never going to be a willingness to travel with the children. As such, the market essentially settled on 2-seaters, for those without the aptitude, inclination and/or time to build in order to escape certified hell. See 1b for the feedback loop of why demographics feed the outcome of the offerings. Everybody else with flying-friendly families is stuck in certified land, myself included. Conversely, the few heads of household with young children have no interest in building outright as a function of life stage financials and time, which makes it a catch-22. That's a good initial crack as to why there's no affordable options for 4-seaters. The current trend in certified is the loss of airframe OEM support until it becomes uneconomical to maintain. I won't mention specific make/models as that just triggers the type cults. The fixed gear trainer-lineage airplanes like C1xx and non-retract PA-28s will endure for a long time because of the sheer number of salvage samples and active flight training market that still enjoys 3rd party vendor support. But the antiquey retracts and twins are in a world of hurt already, and maintaining them under certified rules going forward will continue to be an exercise in watching a terminal patient decay without having someone mercy kill it already. To each their own on that. It's always been a lone-wolf hobby in practice, and current rules don't help the cause. I have my theory as to why the FAA doesn't want to release certified cans into primary non-commercial, but that's my conspiracy theory and for another thread.

You're looking at early model 35s like that orphaned K model, but think/ponder/worry an all-metal riveted fixed gear Lycoming powered experimental rules 2-seater is gonna represent an inflection point on a mx and qualified mx-personnel accessibility basis? You got it backwards.

Yup, non-airline employers wipe their rear with USERRA. I went through that fork 12 years ago, and chose the full time route in the Reserves. Never looked back. I have a plethora of co-workers and acquaintances with similar experience. It's not worth the trouble to me, considering I don't want to work for someone I have to sue in order to work for in the first place. The fact is that aircrew jobs in the ARC are designed to be compatible with large-department employers like the airlines, where you're one of thousands and won't generally be missed while pursuing mil duty. Small employers are anathema to aircrew work imo. What sucks for you is the waiting due to covid et al. When I was in your shoes I was fortunate to go from my crappy broke graduate school existence right into OTS and a steady paycheck. Though I troughed through a portion of the Lost Decade, I generally haven't gone without a paycheck thanks to the military. I owe my ability to start a family on this job, and look with pride back at the time where I chose to stop tilting at the windmills and vacate the pedestrian job market for full time reserves. No one size fits all answer for sure, but for me it wasn't worth the trouble getting on the userra crusade in calvinist right-to-get-fired America. I'm in a much better financial and career position by focusing on being an full time AF pilot. Good luck to ya.

I think MOSAIC is a pipe dream, but it's my kind of pipedream. That's my skepticism stemming from the fallout of Primary non-commercial in 2015. To the point, the two provisions I would be most interested in are: 1) is allowing non-builder owners of E-AB aircraft to have inspection authority in the same manner non-builder owners of E-LSA aircraft are allowed to with the 2-week Repairman-Inspection Certificate. That would be HUGE. I'm willing to say that provision ALONE would tip me over to eating the fixed costs of owning two airplanes. and 2) is of course, expansion of the LSA performance and weight limitations in order to allow 4-seaters into the category, and then via conversions of S-LSA (many which already fly abroad at higher gross weights straight from the factory, since they are allowed to be heavier and faster in Europe and Australia) into E-LSA would gain the same inspection authority efficiencies sought by #1 above, as well as E-LSA as it currently stands today. No, but I'd pay someone to build it for me though. Neither fits the budget of course. It's a bit underpowered, although it markets itself as having a comparable power loading to certified sub-200hp 4 seaters due to lighter weight. I'm skeptical of the advertised out the door weights, plus I'm a "there's no replacement for displacement" kinda guy. I'd buy one tomorrow if I could get it for 80-90 grand out the door...assembled. I ain't paying someone housing money to be told "batteries not included, all assembly required". That ain't happening so back to the drawing board. 😄

In all honesty, I rather not deal in specifics. You can PM me about those if you want. Open thread, the type-specific zealots just get all umbraged and religious about their certified airplanes and things quickly devolve into ad hominems and "well, I got a guy who knows how to work on that for a discount/I got an AP hook-up for parts/337 sourcing so that's your problem if you don't" perennial two circle fights. I'm quite bored of those exchanges so I don't really dabble in it anymore. In the end it's a hobby, people can do whatever the heck they want with their money, no skin off my back. I've said my peace before about my objections to fac-built mx and inspection-authority rules in cert. planes not used for revenue. I was a big advocate of the Primary Non-Commercial category as recommended by the ARC 2013 report to Congress on the part-23 re-write. When that portion of the legislation was snuffed by the FAA, much of my enthusiasm for this hobby waned. I've begrudgingly kept my Arrow because I need the back seat and it's not eating me out of house and home. Though for full disclosure that appeasement has in itself been a result of a concerted effort on my part in minimizing my capital investment in the airplane through the years, down to airworthiness only and at the expense of cosmetics/avionics, bigly. Which is sad for the airplane, but it's a matter of principle for me at this juncture. That wouldn't be the case in the least if I were allowed to maintain, inspect and operate it like an E-AB. I almost quit the hobby last year on account of some of the more frustrating regulatory blockades over modifying/upgrading the simplest of things (headrests was the thing that blew it up for me last year), and it took the wife walking me off the proverbial ledge not to chuck the thing to a part 147 school, get the donation tax credit and walk away entirely. I try not to think too much about it these days, but it's always a bit of a rock in my shoe when looking at this ownership thing on the certified side. I'm just tired of the AP/IA/337/STC/ kiss the ring/ mother may I BS, and the associated $$$ premium.All the while the EAB guy flies overhead shooting IMC to minimums on a literal IPAD and a NAPA alternator for a 1/3 the cost. Oh and homemade headrests just to spite me :D. I digress cuz I'm ranting again. The thing with E-AB is, as much as I'd like to sponsor it, does not cater to the 4 seater XC crowd in an affordable manner. RV-10 is about the only offering of consequence and that's a non-starter for non-builders on the CAPEX front. Otherwise, I'd be there yesterday. At any rate, as to the airplane search, I'm not so much trying to "move up" as much as move "out" of certified land. The family mission keeps me tied to certified tho. But to your question, more than likely I'm looking at an RV-6A (looked at Glasairs, didn't like the seating ergonomics and volumetrics, Lancair 320/360 insurance rates were non-starters), which are in the price range, gear config and seating arrangement I'm interested in. I'm on airplane #3 so my risk aversion is much less than when I was a neophyte, so I've flirted with combining the missions (2-seater acro tourer plus Griswold's family station wagon) but unless I'm willing to find a hen's tooth acro F33C, I'm SOL. I did look at a Yak-18T for a nanosecond, but owning an M14P for the kind of turnkey lazy@ss chock the airplane and hit the beach cross country pilot I am, was just not in the cards. Plus slow and thirsty as all get out. It would have been mad ramp appeal though, pop pop popping up to the FBO behind that throaty monster lol. So yeah, depending on how I feel about doubling my fixed expenses to own two airplanes, the RV-6A is probably where I'm headed for plan B. A very distant plan C would involve getting a different certified 4 or six seater, at a very deep discount, if the market absolutely collapses this year. At that point, it would be stupid not to, for the 10 or so year ownership outlook I have before my mission downgrades to empty nest permanently and the RV becomes the staple. We'll see what the year brings market wise. Sorry for the rambling, this topic gets me fired up lol.

Cost to maintain in the certified side will not be getting any cheaper. These legacy costs will continue to increase as a function of lack of economies of scale, regulation overburden (compared to LSA or E-AB), and lack of OEM support (OEMS want these legacy spam cans moth balled honestly). There's some real pitfalls for the uninitiated to walk into regarding some make/models and non-starter airframe component pricing. I've already seen some price adjustments that would be unheard of two years ago in some of the airplanes I've been interested in trading into. Others are still holding, but once the summer flying seaons is over people will really sour on holding on to the albatross, and watch the inventories get dumped. This fall will be the time to strike a good deal that can last you a decade plus. I'm certainly watching passively. Good luck with the hunt!

That's correct. Formal schools, including flying training (requal included provided it's implemented as a formal syllabus and not merely an in-house lookie loo) is Userra exempt.

The legal question here is going to be if a break in service would be required before the period of voluntary Active Duty would be covered by USERRA. It's already stipulated that folks can begin airline employment while on terminal leave, which implies a date of separation or retirement has already been approved by the DOD side. Normally it's merely considered uncouth for someone to drop voluntary long term MLOA on an employer the second after hitting indoc. But this is a scenario where most peers are also getting laid off and the company is looking to shed payroll for a while, so it doesn't rise to the same level of indignation. If the guy had a separation date, the fact he never got a DD-214 in the process of dropping MLOA on the company seems moot.

Hey, makes sense. after all the Gov of that place emphatically said they'll never be China. 🤷‍♂️

Nah, no elbow coming from me brother. BL as much as this place has been a bit of an echo chamber of optimism bias for the past 6 years, that is of no concern to me either way. I don't wish furloughs on anyone. Back on topic: I think even those furloughed today are going to be fine in the long term. The excel spreadsheets were always ridiculous fantasy-ridden garbage. That doesn't make the airline career garbage in the least, it just means that expectations need management. I sincerely wish every single airline guy or aspirant a quick recovery to income parity. As full time cadre, we're doing our part in trying to shore up our TRs in this moment of need.

Statistically speaking, the USAF has higher density of fighter availability. Navy is very helo centric when compared to the proportion of non-fighter flying billets in the USAF side. It's all a gamble. On the ARC side, Navy Reserves do not do off the street hiring. USAFR and ANG do. So there's that option as well. Timing and luck in general is a good baseline to start from. Caveat emptor. Good luck.

Different times. Didn't you hear? Wing don't need to keep visual while maintaining TAC position while working sensors on the sweep while not making an ass out of himself in the AOR. It's all BVR datalink Betty EZ-bake oven, pick-your-position formation and Windows 10 pop-up fire control systems. So easy a regional FO can do it, hell he might be better at it! Add some 2-piece snag-o-matic Army Cosplay in there for good measure (who needs their limbs after an ejection anyways) and 11F shortage fixed! 😄

That's not what their website says. You still have closing costs with them, just not origination, title and funding fees.

United Airlines these days.... too soon?

Indeed. After dozens of interviews and 3 years of struggling financially and even hiding in grad school for a while, I was supposedly "getting close" (drug of choice if there ever was one), but finally gave up on the fighter thing when the little money I had ran out. I needed to eat, and was already 3-4 years behind my phantom AD YG peers in getting the TAFSD clock going. Didn't seem like a big deal then, but now I'm kicking myself being 7 years to the finish line when I could be 3. Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs: can't love what you say you do when you're hungry and broke first. And that was relatively easier to negotiate in that I had no dependents back then. Nowadays, forget it. So I took the first unit that would send me to UPT pronto and never looked back. To be clear, I don't regret not having gone AD, but I gave up a not insignificant amount of time in the holding pattern, which has affected me financially. Granted, the Lost Decade was in full swing, so I was going nowhere fast in the Bush II economy anyways, but the point remains. In the end, I low-crawled my way into a flying job I felt more suited and content with than the one that got me into the military, so it all worked out. Took about 8 years but that's life. Consolation prizes don't have to always be a pejorative. I certainly don't think so. I sleep well at night. Good luck!

Rare indeed, but I've seen it done. Hell, the guy I refer to got 3 years off it! Unicorn sample for sure (medical poor mouthing regarding dependent who needed out-of-state care was the stated reason). What's more, same guy managed to separate from the ARC with a monumental PC balance waived too, a few years after he'd secured employment at a major. The reality is that the guy was a squeaky wheel at the end, and the unit was more than happy to let him go, especially as someone willing to leave a reserve retirement on the table anyways. BL, 100% chance of not getting what you don't ask for I suppose.

Just messing with ya BFM, wasn't trying to single out your employer, the picture was just a target of opportunity. 😉 Agreed, much worse places to hang out in than K4; Active Duty apparently being one of those if you take a straw poll around here these days. 😄 Cheers and y'all stay safe out there.

All I know is, Kalitta doesn't pay well enough for that nonsense. So much for a pilot shortage. LOL

Yeah buddy. Scratching tick marks on the wall until then myself. Congratulations on getting to AD retirement!

Indeed. The thirst is real lol.