hindsight2020

Nice fable, but that's not how humans work. You ever heard of a tragedy of the commons? Such are the motivations of the aggregate AF pilot pool. Most people join up cuz they want to be pylets. In the process of living their lives, complications to their life situation in the form of financial obligations and expanding list of dependents, their priorities naturally shift. That's hardly a reason to pursue leadership positions for the sake of a paycheck, but there you have it. The idea that people are gonna sack up in an honest way and change the way they are inherently motivated is pure fallacy. They all wait for someone else to take the grenade, leading to no one taking the hit, and all ending up worse off. Tragedy of the commons. Punking everyone to bid for 'up or out' has done jack to improve that dynamic of rational motivators, as can be illustrated by the almost criminal waste of tax payer dollars in the form of PME and AAD/TA. At least a warrant program would save the DOD money because sure as shit I guarantee you people would do AF pylet for W(n) money.

I heard a very good argument on XM radio today, where a male respondent argued to a female officer caller in support of the measure that if it is so true that females roll in seamlessly into the idiosyncrasies of frontline combat, then how come that is the same military currently riddled with so many accusations of sexual assault and violence against female military members? The female officer dismissed the claim that the military has a sexual assault problem, at which point the guest, a quasi-SARC lady feminazi type, went bezerk against the female officer. It was a very compelling argument indeed, watching these two women who were in support of the measure essentially whipsawed against each other.

Again, the warrior monk is a fallacy. It's about high time the military updates their view of fraternization to recognize the changing demographics. Too many women in uniform, period dot. It's gonna continue to happen.

Damn, and here I thought professional bitching was reserved for well-to-do pylets with an inflated self-assessment of labor market value. These docs make pylets look like selfless leper-cleaning nuns.....

The idea of a military dominated by warrior monks with absolute sexual self-restraint and a central preoccupation with the social and cultural idiosyncrasies of the female gender is a fuckin' pipedream . That concise enough for you, SARC lady? And that's talking about the ones who claim innocence as female members of the military. Let's not even get to the other politically incorrect assertion that the desert queens and squadron bicycles that are the preponderance of military females in deployable positions,do hold responsibility for the outcomes and risks of their sexual machinations when surrounded by a preponderance of sex starved and stressed males. You'll never hear that admission from the SARC lady either. After all we're all rapists and brutes with no conscience. Females are endemically sexually innocent....Fuck that post-feminist view of gender roles. The game is chess it ain't checkers.Caveat emptor.

Well here's a counter point to consider. I happen to agree with A1''s assessment to be frank. I know you folks feel strongly about this hiring wave but hear me out. Regional hiring is a non-player for military types IMO. You may think the sky will fall with the 1500 rule, I don't think it will. Getting an ATP isn't all that hard, it just takes the civilian track a year or two more. Did the ruling kill the 300hr wonder boy? Of course. That's what it was designed to do. But who cares! In 1992 commuter airline newhire competitive mins were de facto ATP mins and that didn't stop the hoardes of dreamers from applying to get paid in sunsets and flight time. So, neither will essentially going back to those hiring mins. The only dudes I know flying for regionals post-military are the rare retiree doing it for currency while he waits for the damn window to the so called hiring wave to open already. Regionals aren't magically going to turn into a $50/hr 1st year FO job, just because of the 1500 rule. Frankly, folks are putting too much stock into that ruling. You guys are about to get humbled by the sheer inelasticity of demand the pilot dreamer displays. Once again, it's not going to entice military types to go work for regionals. And make no mistake, there is a huge shadow inventory of regional CAs and FOs waiting to flood the application windows at mainline. Mil applicants with barely one SUPT commitment under their belt will not be all that competitive against these candidates, absent a bona fide military internal rec, and those vary depending on the hiring culture of the specific airline. Military types like to dismiss the resume strength of the civilian-only regional CA but in all reality they are very desirable to mainline and their vast 121 experience is a worthy contender. They will dilute much of the hubris of the optimism biased separating military guy, and in that respect A1 is right in calling the barking dog's bluff. I also agree with A1 in that amongst a labor pool of people bemoaning the large chunks of separation from family as a reason for separating, the prospect of expat work is not exactly a player that's going to decimate retention in the Air force. People bark a lot, but the majority don't find expat work all that palatable. I think A1 is not irrational in making that assumption. 1:1 replacement not materializing is another assumption I agree on, I think the capacity will continue to be tightened as airlines continue to finagle load factors https://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2012/11/october-2011-traffic-capacity-load-factors.html/ See attached link. BL, unless another economic bubble inflates, travel will grow at lackluster pace, airlines will continue to reduce capacity, adjusted for population growth, and there's your less than 1:1. Again, A1 is reasonable in siding with that assumption. I know we all want to see AFPC get punched in the mouth,but I think they are sitting on the upper hand as most people overshoot their estimation of the "big one for military folks" by about 4 years too early. That's a lot of waiting, and most rather wait inside blue than outside, whether they wish to admit that or not. Im not saying things aren't gonna pick up, but it ain't gonna happen in a game changing way until at least 2016. That about kills any leverage a mil guy has in utilizing the airline hiring as construct with which to give blue the finger. Say it is because the member wishes to quit cold turkey or because he intends on pursuing non-airline work, but until at least 2016 most mil dudes aspiring for mainline work are kinda stuck. If I was hot in pursuit of the airline dream I'd line up my ducks for a 2016 time frame and make the decision of staying or going based off where that would put me relative to 20 years and what things I'm willing or not willing to do for Blue in order to get to mid 2015 early 2016. That is obviously something every person is going to have to figure out individually. Like I said, I don't find those assumptions egregious at all on the part of A1.

This country is so passive aggressive about sexuality it's retarded. We rather scold people for their inability of being happy in a monogamous construct (a construct you have to work monastically at, not endemic to human nature) than face the fact that there are other things more important than people's private behavior and the realization that such behavior *gasp* hardly ever speaks in an all-encompassing manner about the person's ability to do their job. I would think the military, the epitome of the social exercise we call "compartmentalizing", would be right at home with such paradoxes. I know we don't fire people because they're lousy absentee, borderline physically abusive, workaholic parents... so why would we because they like to buff more than one woman? ...and the c**t always gets away scot-free. Standard.

Dependents screaming over benefits. That's about it. What.. you thought she's kosher with Airforceshitholetown and 6on/6off because she loves you? lol

Indeed. Nobody I know would turn down the AGR if there was no bonus. I'm surprised it's still around.

I'm re-quoting this because it seems people on here just side-stepped it. Is this standard now? Fuckin non-UIF holding line LT flyer getting the ax to Capt before they even got god damn 500 hours in whatever it is they're flying? If so, fuck it, close shop, there's nothing these old heads can inject to alleviate that particular scenario. That's just systemic failure of the machine. That was not even close to being standard 5 years ago. No way anybody can assert that with a straight face. Fuck PRFs and kool-aid. Accept you are now in early 1990s Blue, dust off the Discovery Channel VHS tapes from that era, and make decisions accordingly. The experience of those who were in this guy's shoes only 5-10 years ago is NOT useful; the author of the above would be ill-advised to attempt to mimic their "career" progression. Fuck, mine included. My life philosophy rings true now more than ever: Do something until it no longer is tenable to your condition, or until you get fired. At that point do something else without regret. Don't ever do something under the premise of being afraid of getting fired because that's leaving too much of your self-worth up to machinations that have nothing to do with you. I know the military owes no one anything, but man, what a broken social contract eh? Do they not know people behave according to personal and rational incentives? Golden rule and all that shit? This ain't that cosmic.... Cock suckers or Morgan Freeman is right.....

Big fokin "2" on that one. It's just another springboard job now. A place you're grateful to have gone thru but that you're really not gonna miss...

as my old DO would say to any proposal......NEVA' gonna happen! I too would like fries with my dreams....

Fine, fine, just raising a little hell is all. :D Vaginitis aside, shit has changed for the worse. To each their own to determine their tolerance for it. I've seen what the old dudes got away with and the quality of flying and TDY they enjoyed. I don't necessarily intend on replicating their "careers" but the qweep that is being pushed forth as normalcy is above and beyond retarded. Not in a "well, we had different sort of problems back then" kind of way, but in a "fwwwok, we didn't HAVE this problem back then" kind of way. They changed the cartoons mid-episode, that's all. Some of us feel just because we're "young" doesn't mean we gotta be so goddamn stoic. And sure, I totally accept being labeled the problem for not embracing a palpable decrease in every measurable quantifier of workplace satisfaction in a submissive manner, when my masterless DUI holding O-5 forerunners didn't. I got no problem with that adjudication. I got no beef with the RIF dudes, I was just injecting that middle management leadership and above has no vested interest in keeping up with the proper education and preservation of the Reserve ways, because perhaps as y'all point out, it has been outdated and they are looking at finishing up those 20 quietly. Perhaps even at my "young" age, it has outdated me as well (having been raised in the old culture, just barely). No doubt exit stage is coming to some of us sooner than others.

It's all AD Lite bra'. Bunch of elated MasterDegree-less O-5s running around mulling over the timing of their departure from what they all collectively agree is the death of a good deal. Real motivating for a mid level Captain being punked into focusing on AAD and PME, as a Reservist mind you. Career advice? Go do something lucrative as a civilian and do this shit for fun until it stops being fun due to the overarching emphasis on Active Duty promotion discriminators. Timing is everything in this business. I wouldn't waste the better part of a decade vesting yourself to a machine that's so in flux right now. Consolidation is the name of the game IMO from here on out, the bodies they staff the new AFRES with will be much more servant and bought into the AD mindset. Current leadrship at the squadon level has for the most part folded like a cheap suit. Nobody has the balls to tell the incoming waves of RIF active duty minions to leave that bullshit at the door. You can thank direct AD-to-AGR for that too. But nobody has the nads to say it at the wing level. And no way I'd do this shit again as a Guard/Reserve baby. They fuckin Judased the social contract with the babies. All that for a part-time check? Fuck that, you can have it. I caught the tail end of the good ol days back in 06/07. The place is nothing like it was in the pre-TFI days. Everything went to hell, from the RPA money allocation to the flying hours to the TDYs to the training quality. I don't know how the Guard has fared on that regard; their eternal money problems are noted. This shit ain't what it used to, and I'm a froggin Capt for Christ sake. But, if you're some dude with a regional line number, sure, I guess it beats THAT nut punch 4 days out of the week, which is all the work they'll give you at the squadron in a row to avoid paying ya benefits and leave. Flying is neato though right?

LOL...not in the Buff it doesn't...

This. Though they'll boondogle the ATP thing at the regional level. That shit won't be a showstopper for those used car dealerships of a job. Regionals aren't gonna shut down for that. Maybe for gas margins, but not for the ATP. Every swinging dick with a fat pencil and a dream will ensure he/she gets that piece of paper. Come to think of it, just like AF Captains LOL They'd be racing each other to the doctoral program application site if mother blue said it was the next discriminator to keep their well-to-do income. The hiring will be much more protracted than the current frothy expectations. No one-for-one job replacement either. There will be capacity constriction and scope will continue to be relaxed. But hey flying is neat-o so it's all good right? Bottom line, it will be lucrative for some, it won't for most. There will never be a pilot shortage for mainline jobs. Never. Cabotage and ab initio will finally put the industry to the grave before any meaningful labor leverage ever occurs. You can't outbid the hobby job crowd, if you intend on making a living that is. All that said, is that a good enough reason to stay Blue and take it? Fuck no. Make real money, pay the bills, fly for fun. That's my conclusion after 7 years in military aviation. Good luck to those who embark on the airline race. You only live once, that's for sure.

A fuckin' men...

As has been highlighted before, you have to burn all your IDT to make it worth your while and that proposition [burning all your IDT] is NOT a given. Depending on the unit and the composition of flying week to week you will be leaving money on the table in order to have a semblance of a home life. That or adding to the perception of "boondoggle shenanigans" TRs already have of ARTs...you know, 10 of them fuckers to a night jet to burn that AFTP like it's going out of style. et al ad nauseam. And now that simulators count for flying TP credit, holy shit watch out (good deal as it is, don't get me wrong). All in all, ART is a decent amount of money considering this economy. But you're working longer for less money and a more diluted retirement and paying a hell of a lot more for healthcare at no appreciable gain in quality of service. Which is why the AGR is a hell of a better deal and is and will continue to be the favorite ugly baby leadership wants to rid itself of from now until then end of the program. If you want to be an ART because you can't come up with a better way of pursuing your life after 20 years of service than draggin' ass in a Reserve squadron for a paycut while clogging up the pipeline for the hungry young guys, holy shit I guess can't relate. I love flying toys for Uncle sugar but I don't want to be doing this shit at 57, I want to be doing my own shit on my own time; flying without ORM sheets and disco belts. To each their own. AFRC bubbas won a small victory with the latest AGR-to-ART conversion "strategic pause". You want to talk about ironic? Mr. Democrat President singlehandedly saved the AGR program two years ago with the federal hiring freeze. They couldn't implement the ART conversion due to no ability to fund it. It literally came down to bad timing for the AFRC/CC, according to the latest gouge from the /A1A folks some months ago. Poetic. This time around they hit the same wall trying to prison-rape the positions into existence. Plus the ol man is finally moving on and so his brainchild is left without sponsors. hooray...for now. ART works for some units. Within the context of TFI/TFE units, my experience has been that ARTs a big miscarriage in the incest that is Active Duty OPCON over Reserve bodies. But that "the Reserves and the dream are dead" discussion, truly is for the bar and I digress. All in all, either option beats unemployment. Alternatively, there's something to be said for straight GS (civil service) while being a straight TR. Depending on the agency, it could be the best of the three worlds. Better civilian paycheck than a flake ass airline musical chairs job and you still get to play with the toys without the political bullshit.

I don't see it as that black and white. And I disagree with the above. I'd say I see a fuckin boatload of career enlisted Tech-to-Senior that fall in the category highlighted in bold. You dang skippy they do it for the pay and benefits. In the civilian world they'd be middle managers at the shoe department at macys making 35K FOR LIFE on a good year with no healthcare and a non-matching 401k. whats the compounding interest of contributing jack shit for 40 years again? The military has a very well established economic draft. Nowhere can you hop out of high school and make living wages for 15 out of 20 years for no formal education when compared to the millions of underemployed in this country. Honestly it's not the officers creating the pressure, it's the assload of enlisted SrA thru E-8 who intend on living a well-to-do Captain's lifestyle two new cars and three sick kids to a new house that causes the economic pressure. Again, strolling down to a more enlisted heavy branch like the Army, clues you into what demographic we're really fussing about. That's a lot of gimme gimme gimme for no meaningfully-educated workforce, if you were to put them all on the street at once. This whole altruism in military service is greatly overstated. One stroll down to Kileen TX in that military city-state, and I realized we're running a different kind of welfare, that is all. It's a management question, like anything else involving labor. Ours has particular teeth when it comes to enforcing contracts, but it's otherwise no different. The argument of comparing it to real drafts is moot. Working at walmart or making a lot more for the hardship of being told how high to jump for 20 years is still a no-brainer to most with no options. I personally know these lifers; they didn't stick to the gig for a sense of altruism, they did it because thye'd be out on their ass doing something for a lot less money and benefits. Altruism's got dick to do with that. Otherwise, none of these benefits would be required to properly staff the machine. I don't have any fingers left after I count the number of people I know racing to get on 30+1day MPA before the wife pops, and these motherfuckers are living in 350K houses. Altruism.....LOL Civilians are apathetic because they're underemployed. Granted there's a huge amount of dead weight in the civilian sector, but that's what our society is. The "cut their welfare before mine" argument is noted, but it's hardly gospel. And I say this as a Reservist who has had the privilege of dealing with the "indignity" of justifying his existence to a duality of warring employers, both of whom would like nothing more to fire you for not being as committed to the other. If anything we're the true fokin heroes, taking a paycut to do the same job at the expense of my ability to barter for my civilian compensation and promotion against my civilian coworkers, all for the sake of altrusim right? Right. Go take BAH type II for your service to your country and then go talk about patriotism and sacrifice. AD cats would be all up in arms, just like they are when TMO shorts them 20 bucks on a mileage calculation, and these are officers for Christ Sake... Just a different shade o welfare is all....Too many REMFs and support folk in the peacetime military to make a convincing argument about the sacrifices of some of those downrange universally justifying said entitlements for all. But, as it stands, no way to stratify those differences in a practical enough way to be equitable. So soundbytes and generalizations is what you're left with. To be fair, military retirement is akin to a really good law enforcement pension, so there are analogies out there. If civilian LE agencies can politically pull for the preservation of their benefits, more power to them.

Of course I you know better, which is why you said that.....And that's the rub and the fucking irony of it all. The shortage refers to a shortage of people with 11F code to go do shit jobs and no flying. It is NOT a shortage of 11Fs to go fly fighters. Noobs might get a boner thinking 'oh shit, fighter pilot shortage', let's make it clear to the peanut gallery, this is one shortage you don't want to be caught with 11F stink on. The irony of an 11F stop loss would be epic.

"I'd hit it" discourse aside, this is exactly the ugly little baby that nobody in the NGB/AFRC wants to talk about. That is, that the civilian sector WIPES THEIR ASS with USERRA. She may get some traction due to the visibility of her job, but every other joe blow reservist has a fat chance keeping their fokin banker's hour job when it comes to bullshit like this. My experience in attempting to fit the idiosyncrasies of a 9-5 job and the ever-expanding participation requirements of the new AD Lite left me with the clear and distinct conviction that unless you're an airline pilot, this shit ain't workable. Had I not spent the better part of a decade chasing after a full time gig in the Reserves I would have been forced upon the recognition that absent an interest in the airlines, I'd be better off saying sayonara to the Reserves. Civilians are hostile towards citizen airmen. I remember getting on arguments about it with my own exwife (then wife). As a civilian employee herself, she sided completely with the employer's stated need to have that person on call 24/7 and the further suggestion said military service was a form of scam where the reservist was essentially gaining one up on the civilian boss and his/her coworkers by massaging the priority of military commitments in order to double dip while not really performing military duty of equivalency to that of an active duty member...that conversation was about as close I've gotten to shaking a bitch up. Similar rhetoric has been espoused by civi-only airline pilots and their perspective on Reservists' "ability to ghost the job" during the shit years, which is not a hard accusation to throw in when both military and civilian pilots alike verbally admit the crappy nature of the first 10 years of seniority at a 121 gig. All this is not even the cherry; to top it off, the suggestion one would want to work for an employer you'd have to sue in order to retain parity is beyond disingenuous as a bona fide career plan. We may laugh at the implication such impasses were reached over a fucking hair appointment, but the real ugly baby is the way in which the civilian employer rebuked the relevancy of her military service. "NOT GOOD ENOUGH OF A REASON. GET YOUR ASS IN HERE RIGHT NOW OR YOU RE FIRED". Real moral hazard that one. Imagine if such were the angles imposed by merchants and landlords across the land over your Active duty military service. It would be a fokin ''take your discriminatory hands off my entitlements'' military welfare riot up in here.... but a non-airline part-timer gets shit canned and it's par for the course? Not quite suggesting this is a Vietnam-era spitting on a returning vet, but we're getting pretty fucking close to that kind of disdain for the citizen airman these days. It's quite fucking disheartening. Pick your job carefully as you all transition to the Guard/Reserves is all I got to say about that one.. EDIT to Add Excellent interview. The dude is kind of a douche and somewhat uninformed of the difference between army air force, enlisted and officer, but she did a decent job of conveying the heart of the message as objectively as anyone could be expected to.

Fuckin' a'... The dude will never make flag, even if he wanted to. We need a war (and by war I don't mean Lybia and REMF laden Afghniraq) and people need to start dying for that kind of leadership to be allowed at the top. Funny catch-22 we live in.

Because our role in the eyes of peacetime leadership is to be conduits for the support of local economies that should have been starved out of existence 50 years ago. We are instruments of wealth re-distribution and federal transfers and that has jack to do with national security strategy. We are instruments of congressional delegation pork barrel, bitch whores in essence, to be less formal. There's nothing strategic about where you do your garrison duty . It's all about pork barrel. Mother Blue simply punks you into considering that very dramatic psychological effect as a sunk cost of signing on a dotted line. Nothing new really. But, yes, the AF could go about it in a much better way, if they actually believed these QOL issues were real game changers for people. They presently hold the line that it is not and they throw money at the problem every time they're proven wrong by members separating due to their unwillingness/inability to tolerate it for more than a decade at a time. I agree with you. UAV bases should be placed in better locales. Shopping, jobs and schools. That's what an area needs to have to keep the supporting structure of the deployed member happy. Placing people in CONUS chitholes falls in the category of "fucking with people when they're at home" which continues to be a big driver in the discontent. But read paragraph #1, it's not about you, it's about pork barrel. We all walk at some point.

Except, not everybody gets to fly cool shit in the military. So the devil really is in the details. I have zero PIC time in a helo, and that shit looks way cooler than 69% of the flying we do in the MAF side of blue. I can do more fun shit with an experimental single engine prop job than the majority of airframes out there. You mean to tell me there's a fucking difference between flying for Kalitta and breaking in a C-5 for a living? Other than actually getting shit delivered @ Kalitta of course? Not everybody gets what they want on drop night. Not hating on the heavy dudes either. My prior MWS was crew, I'm all about the crew concept to shoot the shit with, break on TDY with, fuck get out of the office with. It's one of the more brotherhood-building aspects of the job (ie. none of the shoeclerk bullshit that actually promotes people is..). But frankly, outside the paycheck, it ain't something I would forego the civilian liberties for, especially if I can swing around in a 74- and bang the regional FAs on layover ( can't do that with the chikie mx troop or loadie, without spinning that career revolver) for a days pay and no tertiary office symbol job. And I agree with you.. commercial flying is the pits if you don't live in-domicile. I wonder if you'd feel the same way if you were contractually obligated out of the cockpit on a RC plane job with no possibility of tactical follow-on. Or perhaps if you weren't lucky enough to drop the tactical airframe you enjoy and had to fly something akin to the flying you did as a commercial civi bubba. Bet that CFI gig at Riddle would sound pretty sweet then. Diffrn' strokes I guess..

It all depends on who you are. I speak solely for the T-6 side. We had a CC type for an SRO and they ludicrous speeded that mofo through. If I recall correctly the man was out the door in 2 months flat and leadership wasn't happy about [not finishing sooner] back home from what I heard. Isn't aircraft quals used for promotion fodder and careerism, irrespective of skill, a beautiful thing? For the rest, I dunno it's a mixed bag. Hell I only PAd one flying event, more of a scheduler's convenience move than anything, though I could have PA'd a lot more (Im fokin' awesome though ) and I still shaved 2 weeks off the program. PIT's a boondogle. A haze, a theater; a pantomime quite literally, actually. It's there mainly to keep the real weak swimmers away from a position of responsibility. For the most part it does the implied mission decently well (keeping weak swimmers from being the last link in the PIC chain) , but at the stated mission (teaching to instruct) it fails at it wholesale. And you know what? That's par for the course in my book. But it's a great PCS location and damn it we need good deals whenever we can get them. Surely those guys are not the only ones eating ice cream for a living, Shirley. The world is grey.