Clark Griswold

You might be right, if a unit were to lose or change its mission for this said unit / state leadership would have to have A LOT of confidence that the plane & training mission would last, I saw the C-27J bait ‘n switch up close and personal, that’s a few years in the rear view but I’d be surprised if the ANG institutional memory has forgotten it. I think you probably could get some takers for this mission as there are more than a few MWS’s in the ARC that are not looking relevant going into the future, if you approached a Wing(s) with a plan to keep them gainfully employed, no significant long term change to the economic footprint in the state and public support from AD leadership that this COA will be supported for 10+ years at least, some I think would raise a hand. Yeah, if AD students are allowed to attend it could exacerbate the problem of FTU waiting, or if scheduled correctly it would more slowly produce but not overwhelm FTU intake, all in the execution. All simulators…. Yup, that’s the real devil / part of a way forward I think leadership sees as the easy button. The thing is it is half right. I’ve gone thru two airline sim programs but after I’ve had 20+ years flying so it was appropriate for me to learn and safely, reliably operate a transport category aircraft in routine operations. That is not the case for 99.9% of UPT studs and the range of flight operations they will be required to perform if called upon. A hybrid of ME flight training then a solid type+ course in a transport category level D sim, maybe. The best argument against all simulator ME training I think (not that the AF would follow it) is if all sim ME training is acceptable in quality and risk then why hasn’t the commercial world embraced it?

Good questions. The bill payer I think would be the ARC, O&M pays for training and usually that account is pretty fat. Call it 300 students x about $150k in contractor provided program. 45 million, not chump change but likely cheaper in the long run versus sending them thru a T-6 primary course. I had a modicum staff work in the GWOT days when funding was flowing but my gut tells me it’s affordable. T-54s or other T jet would be based and manned as an additional squadron at an existing Wing to piggyback as much as possible on existing facilities. Might diminish or eliminate the existing mission but methinks it could be an associated unit if leadership kept it clear what the intent was for dudes volunteering or assigned there. The devil is always in the details but 2-3 year tours to stay below the 5 year limit for a full course requal would probably be an acceptable bill to the ARC in manning coverage. T-54 instructors would be generated in house, type course and then syllabus if no previous King Air time. Other T jet would be initial cadre and commander designated then establish a similar process. I think this would help the bottleneck at heavy FTUs by more clearly showing heavy pilot production (at least a large portion of them) to heavy FTU intake. That is you know X number of students in this pipeline are all destined for an X FTU slot, adjust backwards the allocation (number and report times) of UPT slots to the ARC to fit the proper rhythm using wait times from graduation to FTU training start as your primary trend indicator. I’d have to do some serious number crunching with access to data I don’t have but… I’m confident that if I did it would be cheaper. The boost in productivity really comes from the freed up space for the AD if they wanted to backfill those slots that the ARC is no longer in. Expansion of the UPT enterprise but overall cheaper if run at planned capacity, higher production if desired if you backfill slots, smoother production if you choose to not backfill due to wiggle room in the regular UPT system. I deleted formation as most of the instructors in this phase 1 would be civilian and likely not familiar, form would be covered in mil instructed flight training.

So I thought about something, if UPT is maxed out and there is a portion of students that know they are going back to heavy units (a few guys sometimes do very well and switch to fighter units and vice versa but that’s the exception and not the rule) why not establish an ARC only program, half contractor half mil instructed to alleviate waiting in the regular UPT system / boost productivity? Adopt the 141 based training for pre mil instruction, but a stand alone program, then 1 or 2 locations for the multi engine mil based training. No T-6 time. GA based PPL with INSTM training then AMEL and x-country. Tailwheel, upset recovery and acro basics. No formation in this phase. About 160+ hours. Mil instruction in a T-54 (130 bound students plus others) or a successor to the T-1 (Phenom, Hondajet, Citation). About 60+ hours. Thoughts?

I hear ya, I’m apprehensive about kinetic and boots on the ground but i agree with @Lord Ratner that we can control immigration especially in the case of Cuba as it is an island just far enough to control maritime outflows attempting to land in the USA and our maritime forces would operate out of the USA. This administration would also not implement a policy regarding asylum seekers from a newly liberated Cuba that would release first process later ala previous administrations (Democratic and Republican, the corporate globalists wings of both parties). I’m sure there would be risk but I’m confident a stabilization mission after a negotiated end to Communist Party rule could be done at an acceptable risk. Quarantine the island, marshal forces, apply diplomatic pressure, offer generous aid to the Cuban people, amnesty for former regime officials and safe passage for those who would be targeted in the new Cuba but testimony first in a truth and reconciliation commission, etc… I’m not for adventurism or naive idealistic nation building in totally alien societies but in this case, in our neighborhood, with a nation with have connection with, I think we should.

Concur, in our backyard I’d like us to start making offers that can’t be refused; offering a better deal than the Chinese or Europeans can offer. Basically plugged into our security, intel, economic / finance, tech system with access to visas and fair trade based on compliance with treaties, agreements, etc… you remain a sovereign country but we are friends with benefits now. Cuba could get a nice off ramp from the rogue nation highway in this instance

So here’s my Venezuela prediction… Now I’m thinking about Cuba… as is SECSTATE Rubio BreitbartRubio: Cuban Government Is 'in a Lot of Trouble'Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the leaders in Cuba were in a lot of trouble when asked about potential military actions. | ClipsThis thread is about putting it out there sts so… I’m gonna say Cuba gets defensive and survives (hopefully lightning strikes twice like my original Venezuelan prediction) but the Cuban regime has survived a lot and is frustratingly durable Thoughts?

Little bit of info trickling out Air & Space Forces MagazineUS Airpower Paved Way for Special Ops to Capture Venezuel...U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a high-stakes military operation on Jan. 3 supported by extensive U.S. airpower.Interesting that there were LE present in the force that captured Maduro.

ImgflipLaughing Leo

Yup - Clark is happily negative one point on this one Woke up, checked my phone and holy shit, this was unexpected

A thread for guessing what’s gonna happen https://www.theblaze.com/shows/glenn-tv/3-blazetv-hosts-give-their-top-2026-predictions-and-theyre-wild Based on the article, Clark’s prognostications: Geo political: Ukraine War ends by summer, tense peace, Russia continues grey zone actions but shifts to Baltic shenanigans. China does more encirclement exercises but does not invade. Venezuela destabilizes further but does not fall. Oil and China keeps regime a float. Iran cracks down and survives, IC navel gazes and allows brutal repression. Turkey gets refugee influx, they ship them to Europe. Europe intakes them reluctantly and governments get wobbly but order remains. Other migrants attempt to enter with this influx. Aliens No disclosure even if governments have made contact with them. Markets DOW finishes above 50k USA faces debt mini crisis, inflation comes back but not as bad as Biden era, above 4% by end of year. Interest rates freeze. Gold and precious metals surge, crypto grows. AI begins culling entry level knowledge workers, nibbles at middle level, has largest effect on junior executive level. Politics Republicans hold both houses, Democratic Party goes further left. Semi serious calls for Bluexit occur. No effort is made to contain spending growth, reference mini debt crisis above, bond markets are nervous but buy Treasuries at higher interest rates.

Cool. This is not my bailiwick but concerns me in general for preserving a strong pilot culture in the center of the AF. The MAF having a finishing school after UPT but before FTU is where this idea really would be focused. Just as commercial operators look for minimum hours, experience levels and track records of success prior to hiring, the MAF needs that in the pilots it assesses. Again strong pilot culture. A first short assignment like the first job a civilian pilot lands, can start their careers, training and ultimately lead to a more capable MAF. I’m just day dreaming on BO but if a post graduate universal 1st assignment system (multiple steps) was synched up to MAF and other big wing / crew bound graduates, it could handle the intake and steadily produce better aviators prior to heavy FTUs. Would it produce the immediate mass they say is needed now? Probably not but methinks the cost of a glut of less than optimally trained pilots is greater than waiting a bit and getting the heavy customers accustomed to getting better pilots at a slower but steady cadence. My druthers would be for the AF to petition for a military B737 MAX 7 with reasonable mods and have this be a short assignment for all heavy tracked grads. The sequence would be a multi engine refresher and short experience builder course, all contractor provided. A short break for some leave then report for a contractor provided type course with additional sims, a type plus course. Then report to one of three units flying this jet, get about 25-35 sorties, then move on your way. This is fusing advanced training with operations, reducing the investment of the AF into training only aircraft but gaining new reliable, efficient, organic steady airlift capabilities.

All in the execution and really this idea is more for the MAF than the CAF. The F-7 has been discussed and probably some initial work has been done, no inside knowledge, but as an affordable mass replacement for older F-16s, a modern F-5 our smaller Allies could afford and IMHO, a good round out for the USAF to keep its fighter pilots always flying. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/11/air-force-weighing-turning-t-7-into-f-7-armed-light-attack-jet-official/ Really, it would be additive but probably not in total costs if an ARC squadron were so equipped with a lesser amount of their PAA but also equipped with X of F-7s. Devil in the details and all but likely a ratio of 3-4 F-7s could be had and supported for the cost of 1 “heavy” fighter. As for the MAF, this needs to be cargo, people, modern systems and lots of reps. Basically a regional airline run by AMC to give that pilot experience before moving on to the bigger jets while establishing or restoring capabilities lost when we lost jets like the C-9, most of the C-21s, etc… if an appropriate ME program is not going to be fielded.

It’s all in the execution whether or not it would be beneficial, detrimental, additive or unacceptable to the CAF and the Joint Force. I’m not privy to the data, people, o-plans, intel, etc… that I would need to come up with a real proposal but shooting from the hip on BO I’d recommend this F-7 mission(s) to A-10 units losing their jets, F-15C units not yet slated for EXs, F-16 units that have an ASA mission, etc… All branches of the DOW are looking at financially challenging times ahead even if the top line of the DOW keeps going up. The premier new weapons and platforms are expensive in of themselves, new less expensive unmanned weapons and platforms will need to be purchased in mass so in total cost of ownership they won’t be cheap and the sheer scale of what needs to be replaced, refurbished and acquired is daunting. Even if a patch wearing super smart guy says we need 690 F-47s, we won’t get them. Just my two cents, but the AF needs to consider a force less all gold plated and more copper, brass and some gold plating. Not every fight is night 1 in the Taiwan Strait. In terms of the CAF, an affordable light fighter, most if not all will be family models, primarily based in the ARC gives them billets & seats to retain experience, train FNGs and execute some missions without overkill. It would be awesome to have everything in the numbers we want but we are just not going to get that. Taking some risk, altering our perceptions of what the AF should look like and being able to change are necessary.

Yup While I don’t agree with the premise the AF is apparently taking in a long term policy, that is to divest itself of all training aircraft save the T-7, I get why certain parts of the brain trust are advocating for that as there is only so much money, personnel, facilities, time and attention you can devote to training till while OTEing for ops. With that in mind and trying to meet the other side in the middle, both the CAF and MAF could use their ARC associated wings to build out new capabilities that still meet operational requirements but also serve as expanded training capabilities before new pilots report to their assignments. For the CAF, I’d argue for a light fight version of the T-7 with homeland defense, aggressor, training & exercise support as the raison d’etre(s). For the MAF, I’d argue for a reasonable fleet of transport category aircraft, probably replacing some older Herc and 135 tails. Adding airlift capability to the AF for regular personnel movement, light cargo, aero medical airlift, etc. Season and prepare new MAF bound pilots there before reporting to their FTU. There are costs and consequences to those ideas but you either want a strong pilot culture or not. You fly, train and focus on operating better than other Air Forces or not. You allocate the resources to build better aviators or not. I’m also not saying that those COAs are the only ways either but in a general sense an institution must have the honesty and character to change course when previous choices aren’t working as well as they thought they would. It must also think a bit creatively when resources are scarce, as Churchill said “Gentlemen, we have run out of money; now we have to think“ Think creatively, reasonably but also not timidly. The end goal is always a well trained, reasonably experienced and tested pilot graduate.

8 months So much good, applicable and affordable training / experience / airmanship building could be done vs meaningless busywork Already posted this musing but whatever $175k ish would buy a good deal of tailwheel, acro, AMEL time and a type course in a transport category sim, travel costs included But… here we are. Somehow other Air Forces seem to figure out how to keep a multi engine trainer program going, not that only multi engine training is ailing in the Air Force Italians are getting the Piaggio 180 Key AeroModernising ITALY’S multi-engine trainingNew generation Piaggio P180s The Italian Air Force’s air transport...From the article: The typical course of Phase 3, for pilots aiming to gain their military wings for the multi-engine fleets, lasts about seven months and includes 60 flying hours, plus 51 hours in the simulator. This equipment is provided by Alsim which is representative of a generic multi-engine jet aircraft. As mentioned earlier, SATA will receive a new simulator from Piaggio Aerospace, representative of both the VC-180B and the VC-180C versions. If they can afford it we can too.

Is Doss Aviation going away then once this starts?

Contract seaplanes The War ZonePentagon To Contract Fleet Of Seaplanes For The PacificThe lack of an American amphibious aircraft capability has become more glaring as the possibility of a conflict with China looms larger.

As a retiree I wish I owned a pawn & gun store, Dodge dealership and tobacco/vape shop, preferably all one stop shop, outside of an active duty base(s) right now

Chinese J model flying The AviationistChina’s New Medium Airlifter Has Flown for the First TimeChina’s new turboprop-powered medium airlifter built by Xi’an Aircraft Corporation, dubbed Y-30, has flown for the first time. A long-rumored medium-class

Congress not happy The AviationistFY2026 NDAA: Congress Pushes Back On Aircraft Cuts and Se...The NDAA freezes E-3, F-15E and A-10 retirements, accelerates F/A-XX and F-47 oversight, and demands a concrete plan for post-E-6B nuclear

Glad to hear that, it just popped up on Airplanes and Coffee I think and I wanted to promote here

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News The AviationistFirst T-7 Red Hawk Delivered to JB San Antonio - RandolphThe U.S. Air Force’s Air Education and Training Command received its first T-7 Red Hawk trainer at Joint Base San Antonio - Randolph, marking a milestone

Interesting read on the PC-21 Skies MagPilatus PC-21: This simulator burns jet fuel - Skies MagSkies test pilot Rob Erdos flew the Pilatus PC-21 military trainer, discovering that it combines the best aspects of aircraft and simulator to deliver a unique training capability.

I can’t say your skepticism isn’t justified however given the essential nature of the mission & capabilities of this platform, I may be naive but methinks it will quell the parochial greedy shoe clerks of the MIC and get done with an acceptable amount of bull fertilizer I blast pointlessly into the ether for more flying for training for an organization supposedly run by pilots, who seem hell bent on doing as little as possible so I feel your pain