Clark Griswold

The regime you reference is a rabidly atheist communist cult of personality regime that has negative 10,000% in common with a fanatical Islamic dictatorship, they wouldn’t give an Islamic terror group or regime nuclear weapons or the knowledge to build them because on a good day they are frenemies who barely tolerate the other, only thru their shared extreme enmity to us are they not decrying the other. Just to cover this, Pakistan is in reality a mildly Islamic mainly military dictatorship that runs a country of varying Islamic adherence. They have their own security risks with Islamic terrorism and subversion, they have no interest in arming a group willing to attack with a nuclear weapon. Two things can be true at once, the Iranian regime wants nukes to both assure regime survival and to use against the infidels one day. Russia, China know this and that is but one reason why they want an Iran strong enough to threaten us but not one that is nuclear capable to threaten them. As to your point on WMD and false / flimsy reasons for OIF, yes there were not vast stockpiles of WMD but there were some https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/10/15/356360949/pentagon-reportedly-hushed-up-chemical-weapons-finds-in-iraq Is that enough to justify the invasion, decapitation and ensuing occupation? Not by itself but it was but one reason to get rid of the problem, the Baathist regime, rather than let it live and naively hope it changes for the better. The public assessment of the IC I’ll leave it be but methinks The Onion had it right back in 2014 The OnionIranian Team Openly Working On Bomb In Negotiating RoomVIENNA—Asserting the Middle Eastern nation’s right to a safe, peaceful energy program, members of the Iranian diplomatic team attempted to seek more favorable terms of a deal with the P5+1 global poweEvery negotiation, every agreement, every summit, every engagement is/was a delaying tactic to just get to a bomb.

I don’t think we are getting sucked in as much as we didn’t have a choice. Iran having nuclear weapons is not acceptable in any scenario, it is different than NK, Pakistan or Turkey developing nukes. Not only would they still hold at risk the Strait of Hormuz, they would still command some of the largest oil reserves and now a military capability that effectively holds at bay or at risk the world. They would have the means to if not push us out of the ME effectively, severely limit our options, if they developed a nuclear weapons capability. They are completely capable of nuclear terror, feigning innocence or ignorance if a weapon was used. It is completely conceivable they would strike us, Israel or Europe first with a nuclear weapon in an unattributable manner. Russia and China may be enjoying seeing the USA get into a fight with Iran and I wouldn’t intervene if I were them but we are not them. We occupy a totally different role in this drama, they can and will do things that we won’t because they, the mafia regime running Russia or the cult of personality running China, are the bad guys for lack of a better term. These are countries that might poison you with radioactive materials if the leader doesn’t like you or assign you to be worked to death and steal your organs if they want to. We are not perfect and neither are our leaders but by any measure we are more good than bad. I don’t like the fact that we secure a world that a lot of preening, hypocritical assholes free ride on and enjoy the benefits of while not doing shit but it is preferable to a world where China controls micro chips, Iran controls or threatens half of the worlds oil supply and Russia has retaken Eastern Europe. They will use that leverage to push us out, choke our economy and weaken us in ways we are not really widely thinking of. Chinese diplomats in unguarded moments have told American diplomats they wish to deindustrialize the USA, to turn us into an agrarian nation that supplies China and is essentially a vassal to it. Fuck that. Iran is part of the strategy to defeat that, not only for us but the free world and allies, as fair weather friends as some of them might be. We all have bitter memories of the GWOT, other long term missions or actions taken in the ME, we can legitimately be wary but we must be open that force is required yet again. The Korean War happened only 5 years after WW2, I’m sure the public was not happy with another war after fighting in the most destructive conflict ever but history waits for no one and reality is utterly remorseless, either we fight our enemies or we let them take what they want of the world.

I get it, I would say I’m not a neo con but a realist. Neo con or Neo libs are trying to make the world a better place, to make said regimes like us, I harbor no illusions about that. I just wanna keep them from running the place.

Will look at that Good discussion on School of War on Iran https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/school-of-war/id1589160645?i=1000756399444 I’m not a neo con, I’m not looking for dragons to slay but if we want to prevent the three authoritarian systems of the east with capabilities, resources, position and intent on reshaping our flawed but acceptable current world order into something we will not like, we have to act.

Yup, that would be fine too. Placing this program(s) at some BFE location would have the opposite intended effect and likely require salaries that would not be approved for the IP cadre. Driving distance from a domicile, I’d define that as less than 100 miles, good pay as a contract pilot or as an ARC member. Street hire civ pilot positions would be there too but the job requirements / role would be clearly communicated. To incentivize the mil community living in domicile, I could see special exemptions, carveouts, bonuses, etc… being offered. Assuming legalities, getting new ones or exceptions to policy… non deployable billets, bonuses for X number of training flights per FY, Tricare benefits, etc… Spread the love, West-Central-Southeast locations. PHX, DFW, ATL as likely bases to be near. Give each location two planes, single and a multi engine program.

Probably Regime alter Venezuela, regime change Cuba, keep pressure on Mexican cartels, keep Russia from taking more of Ukraine, make amends with Canada & Europe, build an asymmetric thread to hold at risk a cross Taiwan strait invasion from multiple axes… secure the greater peace with strategic blocking moves.

Totally valid point, in my fever dream this basic flight training would be on an AF base(s) or a flight college(s) Uncle Sam would buy

Gotcha I’m curious to get more data / opinions on whether or not it is viewed as beneficial enough to get the 120 or so hours prior to T-6. I had a PPL paid for by the AF prior to UPT and my CFI was great but UPT and the experience of hitting Tweets was quite different than my PPL instruction. If this basic flight training were run like T-37s / T-6s, I wonder if it would improve the intermediate phase of UPT (T-6s in this hypothetical) by indoctrinating the students earlier to the culture of UPT (high standards, fast pace, honest feedback, etc…) but in aircraft and maneuvers less advanced, essentially building the mental capacity to handle stresses first in a less demanding environment, giving them an immunity to a degree then onto the next level. Not implying anything negative to the current students.

Were there any other checkrides, events, etc… that have as high a failure rate?

Yeah, I suspect that Trump is as much of gambler in military action as Putin is and the incredible success of Midnight Hammer, Maduro raid, etc… convinced him it was time for a trifecta. That is a quick decisive powerful military operation with outsized results and low costs in blood and treasure, not implying his advisers or an ally country lied or misled him but we gambled that the regime was more fragile and more disliked than is apparently the truth. Not saying a majority of Iranians want theocracy but enough do to keep that regime afloat, enough are willing to serve in the IRGC, the Basij, police and the conventional military forces to support the clerical regime and all of its odious activities. I’m not looking for the US to get into major ground war, occupation and inevitable COIN mission but unless we get very lucky and somehow take out thousands of the leaders and enforcers of the revolutionary Islamic regime and simultaneously cause/support an uprising that is acceptable (secular military dictatorship is fine initially), even a severely wounded Iranian regime that survives is not going to be an optimal outcome, maybe acceptable in the short term long term I suspect not. It seems the idea of ground war is in the zeitgeist The War ZoneWhat Boots On The Ground In Iran Could Entail, According...Joseph Votel offers insights on securing Iran's uranium, seizing Kharg Island, dwindling stocks of missile interceptors, and how long Epic Fury will last.I think in the big picture, this is another test like Ukraine is for the West. We just quit the mission in Afghanistan but the mission was not possible, to change their society into something we wanted, we should have accepted that earlier and come to some kind of settlement that would have not led to our ignominious departure. Ukraine is still in the fight but approaching an inevitable and I would say acceptable in the short term pause in the conflict. If we recognize that and prepare we (the West) can win the next inevitable aggression of Russia. Iran is the chance to defeat jihadism for a second time (first was Islamic State) and much more meaningfully the project of Islamic aggression. Israel must defeat Hamas and eventually Hezbollah, it is a cultural, religious and political phenomenon that can not be allowed to succeed. There are other Islamic governments and movements that we have come to terms with and can have relations with, carefully and somewhat warily I would advise but the ones I listed along with the other usual suspects can not be given quarter when it comes time to act. History is never over, the test never ends.

To destroy the power plants or not? https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-trade-threats-over-energy-targets-war-escalates-2026-03-22/ I’m not sure this will work, the regime has prepared for this for years. I fear that boots on the ground are looking necessary to destroy the Iranian Islamic regime.

We need a pause on legal migration, this is not working as intended https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2026/03/20/give-us-your-tired-your-poor-yourfreebies-nearly-half-of-us-immigrant-households-on-welfare-n2200446

Cultural reference

Possibly Private money, crypto backed with a physical presence and assets held as redeemable collateral with a feasible redemption mechanism I still hold some minute hope that the powers that be realize destroying the dollar is not going to work, the piper must always be paid

The welfare/administrative state must be shrunk by at least 50-75% The GOP should run an ad campaign with two tax scenarios for the average tax payer, one funding the beast of bloated social services and one with very modest social programs where welfare returns to the churches and local civic societies thru individual donations Ask the voter what do you want, aloof bureaucrats wasting your money in utopian schemes to address aspects of free societies that are features not bugs that can’t be solved only treated or you deciding how much and where you want part of your income to go to benevolent efforts?

Gotcha thanks In another thread I suggested a heavy only UPT program for students bound for heavy ANG/Reserve units, maybe XPW could have been that with a contractor/aviation school basic/intermediate phases with the T-1 being the advanced and military introductory flying phase Water under the bridge but worthy of BO discussion XPW 2.0 proposal Heavy tracked ARC students commercial instrument rated pilots & volunteers track to a Parachute, PPL, AMEL and Aerobatics/2 ship formation training all contractor, mil supervised. Around 150-170 hours. Graduate and then multi turbine training with mil instructors. 2 phases there: 1 tactical air mobility training (ME experience, STOL, NVGs, Semi-prepared field ops); around 40-50 hours. Phase 2, 737 type training with 15 simulator rides, 10 flights 737. 1.0 hour flights, normal ops to a rendezvous to a fellow 737 to pre contact, recover using automation and full NAV capabilities, short pattern ops. CFI, Comm instrument rated pilots or higher certified pilots (ATP) with 300+ hours could be PA’d thru all Phase 1 training except Parachute (unless they are already free fall certified) Aerobatics & Form if passing an oral, academic and practical evaluation. Not a wham bam thank you ma’am widget program but an affordable and reliable way to produce strong graduates. This 737 fleet would be also used for E-7 training (assuming it is acquired), a surrogate for air refueling training for other platforms as the Navy does with its heavy aircraft crew and as an experience and currency trainer for rated staff returning to the Line. It would also act as a reserve fleet for AMC if training or operational demands required the use of them. Fleet of 20, all based near an airline domicile. #strongpilotculture

What is/was the syllabus for XPW UPT? About the same as traditional UPT syllabus?

Don’t train your enemies BreitbartSen. Jim Banks Warns About Chinese Pilots Getting U.S. Tr...Sen. Banks is sounding the alarm about Chinese training in the U.S. to become pilots, a fact first revealed in Peter Schweizer's book "The Invisible Coup."

Considering post kinetic outcomes, bad cases, decent short read War on the RocksA Worst-Case Scenario for the War with IranThe war with Iran has prompted many questions about what comes next. Will the Islamic Republic regime survive? What could replace it? Will Iran dissolve

https://www.darpa.mil/news/2026/darpa-new-x-76-speed-of-jet-freedom-of-helicopter Yes please

Probably What would / could we do if it was disclosed? Rhetorical and just putting myself into the shoes of US leadership right now, I’d probably suppress it. If any of the crew were killed, different story. I know one of the crew was injured on ejection (ejection itself has physical consequences too), I’d tell the Kuwaitis to be prepared to quietly and amply compensate them after hostilities are over. The primary objective is to win the war, military operation, collapse the regime, etc… I hate it, it is morally compromising and not a good but necessary thing for where we are now.

Probably another factor working against it I wonder if this had gotten flying before the A330 MRTT if it would have found a launch customer

Same as Boomer6, video gone, if it was intentional I doubt we will ever know that for sure, like Egyptian Air 990, we know what probably happened but never proven for sure

Is it dead as a potential acquisition?