Clark Griswold

UFB

You can almost set your watch by the personnel PIO, it used to be every 5 years (ish) the AF would be at the top or bottom of the cycle, everyone get out or please everyone stay in, the only thing I have noticed different than when I came in back in the late 90's is that the frequency is now about every 3 years... the PIO that AFPC and A1 induce just gets worse as they keep moving the stick from full aft to full forward while simultaneously going idle to military, the stick being RIF boards and the throttles being the bonuses or lack thereof... they use personnel tools with opposite effects one right after each other making the frequency shorter and the amplitude higher If you could have an hour to explain the concept of control and performance to A1, that might help but as most of them (that I have met) have no operational experience, have been in personnel all of their carriers and think it is just a spreadsheet to be manipulated at will, you will continue to get arbitrary / clueless / no real strategy just reaction to the problem du jour force structure decisions or God forbid, A3 asserts itself and we structure the AF around ops Get that long term orders check book out and call the Guard / Reserves, if you offered 3+ years of orders or back on AD to get that last 5 years or whatever they need to get in the check of the month club, you would get takers... if this CSAF wants to fix one problem (of many) before the new guy (or gal) takes the controls then focus on this ant and burn it up Did some bar napkin math and I bet you could get 3500 bodies (even split of O's and E's) for 3 years with all costs included (including PCS, TDY and training) for 3 years for about $1.5 billion, less if you expand at RPA Guard / Reserve bases, that kicks the can down the road but shit take a step in the right direction, spend the money, get rid of a problem hemorrhaging our credibility to manage this mission The easy part is figuring whose ricebowl to steal from... not

Can't argue with that, given the fecklessness of most Eurocrats, I think it would be hollow as drum. Basically Germany, Italy, Spain, et. al would need to almost double their military capabilities to be credible, put that in snowball in hell category. Yeah, I would put the Dutch in the tough fighter for their weight class also, this article was also at the National Interest and related to the subject: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-germanys-air-force-dying-14549 This is a somewhat older article but a list of proposed overseas bases for closure, https://www.g2mil.com/obcl.htm. If departing NATO outright is a bridge too far, then associate membership with a WAY reduced presence is probably feasible. Tell, American public we're bring 20,000 of the 30,000 troops in Europe home and saving X billions of dollars, that will pass after some isolationist name calling. Really if the area of the world with 46% of the GDP can't or won't defend themselves, they aren't worth defending.

This comes up from time to time but I thought this was a well reasoned article on exiting the alliance at the extreme of options or changing our participation in the alliance to associate member (as really a fail-safe and firewall against nuclear intimidation). https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/should-the-us-leave-nato-14534 Thoughts?

Touche' mon ami Per usual, The Onion has the finest commentary on the situation: https://www.theonion.com/article/new-evidence-suggests-middle-east-conflict-predate-38428

True but our strategy (for lack of a better word) requires restraint, if it comes to needing cluster bombs, MOABs and napalm I'm ok with it but until then shoot carefully

CDE not on their 9 line I think.

Reset option as seen from ground level. But Quinn was right, 200k boots on the ground indefinitely with the equal number teachers, doctors, etc.. but that could be low. Just a WAG but 200k boots on the ground and the civil rebuilding teams, logistics, support etc.. would be in the 85+ billion a year range with no end in sight. No thanks.

Another milestone for the program: The first F-35 delivered outside the U.S. was taken on charge by the Italian Air Force.https://theaviationist.com/2015/12/04/first-italian-f-34-accepted-by-itaf/ With that, built and delivered outside the US, we might be able to get another partner in the program and give the PLAAF a counter balance in the region: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/coming-soon-russian-su-35s-pakistan-american-f-35s-india-13838 https://www.indiandefensenews.in/2015/08/idn-take-why-india-should-buy-f-35.html

Shifty bastards. Not disengagement but selective direct action is our best tactic, our strategy needs to be money, guns and support for regional allies that meet serious requirements (anti-corruption, human rights, etc...) with a limited footprint in the ME. All of this accompanied by a cultural, moral argument against jihadism; an information campaign larger than our current one and the expansion of a what I would call active allies in this active intellectual confrontation against Islamic Fascism. This argument can not just be fought by the West; other nations, cultures, traditions, religions, etc... need to brought to isolate and confront intellectually the jihadis but their sympathizers and enablers. The civilized world has to call out the Saudis for exporting Wahhabism, the Iranians for support of Hezbollah, the Pakistanis for the assistance to the Taliban, etc... there are a ton of free riders out there enjoying the benefits of the liberal world order that has evolved, it's time to get everyone rowing who enjoys this boat... https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/28/the-pitfalls-of-a-whack-a-mole-strategy-against-isis/ Easy to say, hard to implement given our current political climate. Pols want to score soundbite points and bumps in the poll numbers with quick shots from the hip and large military actions to project the image of strength and decisiveness. Our political cycles are so short that a careful, well thought strategy requiring years to be effective comes across as weakness because you don't get the immediate high of a major military ground action, seizure of territory but then followed by the hangover of occupation-pacification-nation building. That said, I think if a President (particularly one in their second term) laid out an agenda to contain and confront, offer help to change the nations and societies that produce nihilistic, sociopathic jihadis and be honest that this will take 20+ years because our ultimate goal is a generation of young people in the ME who don't hate us, other religions and want to do something other than blow themselves up on a bus or airplane and that we are gonna get all the Allies on board with this because we all stick together or hang together, this could work, but I'm an optimist...

Long article but worth the read. ISIS’ Grip on Libyan City Gives It a Fallback Optionhttps://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/world/middleeast/isis-grip-on-libyan-city-gives-it-a-fallback-option.html?_r=0

Good luck and congrats Lt. Zehrung https://www.f35.com/news/detail/first-usmc-student-selected-to-fly-f-35b-earns-his-wings

Joyride in an A-4. https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-tale-of-when-a-marine-mechanic-stole-an-a-4-skyhawk-1745015819

This thread needs some humor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4FIo89Ll4E

There's the turd in this punchbowl, a wannabe Islamist Sultan whom the Euros keep flirting with and who we should keep at a distance until he's out of office or no longer a threat and he is a threat to the West. Backsliding on human rights, not doing dick on foreign fighters and causing a Kurdish migration to Europe all while pleading for money, his usefulness and the project of integrating Turkey into NATO & the EU has come to be a head (sts). I have been waiting for the STHF with Russia returning the serve to Turkey and Putin may not go kinetic (unless an obvious opportunity presents itself) but Russia arming the Kurds could be a good backhanded compliment to Turkey, I doubt the Iranians would like it but Putin can probably use arms sales as leverage to keep them quiet and use proxies to return the favor to Erdogan.

Yup - when oil was north of 75 a barrel Putin put money, time, effort and focus into making them far more creditable and capable a military force than we want to believe they are. Even with oil low, all those good years of high oil prices (for Putin, Iranians, et al) have let them acquire more capability than we have considered recently. If oil stays low for say 3-5 more years they may coast down to the speed we are use to them operating at but for now they're fairly high speed, low drag...

2 Turkey needs a time out https://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/11/24/nato-should-tell-turkey-this-thanksgiving-youre-dumped/ And while the shoot down is the big news, the Russians are doing some fairly complicated air power demonstrations / ops. Turkey should mind its manners and be cool. https://theaviationist.com/2015/11/21/infographic-russian-strategic-bombers-syria/

20 lb. brains are working on it and there are already some out of the container ideas being tested probably soon to be fielded. and the marketing video... Still I see your point, for whatever reason the USAF has all the chips on stealth, hopefully it keeps winning. Still some insurance on that bet like our own Growlers or ideally the never realized F-15G Wild Weasel as the sensors get better but as the Navy is now "revalidating" the number of F-35C's they are looking at buying, this may be a toe in the water by the USAF to see if asking about buying fewer F-35As and buying some 4th+ Gen will pass with Congress. Not holding breath though.

This seemed related to the original article this thread was started on, article on improvements to the SAAB Gripen's NG radar and really the rise of the 4.75+ gen fighter. https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/saabs-gripen-ng-fighter-has-an-awesome-way-to-make-its-1743963539 We just may not be able to afford an 5th gen fighter fleet but a good mix of 5th and 4th+ gen fighters may fit the budget.

Call China, this is normal ops for them.

Gotcha - not meant to steal thunder but only to spread the news that the Building dragged down another attempt at going to something other than the 1940's Industrial Style HR & Management Policies / Procedures... I thought the elimination of "up or out" could actually happen as you could save a significant amount of money and I didn't see how it cost the DoD anything. I am not for letting people languish at low ranks for 15+ years as the military did for the 20's & 30's but not everyone needs to be an O-5 or aspires to be (except for the pay). Oh well, the article I posted described it as Tranche 1 so the SECDEF may charge the dragon again but they're not acknowledging the first rule of massive reform of a large bureaucracy, almost all the guys you sit with at the first big meeting need to go if you want to get something done and their acolytes. You're planting a new crop, so rip out the old ones or you'll keep getting what you've always gotten.

He fought the law and the law won. No big changes but you'll only have one cover sheet for your TPS reports now. https://militaryadvantage.military.com/2015/11/carters-force-of-the-future-tallies-only-modest-changes/

Don't usually agree with Chris Matthews but this is right on the money.

No doubt and it would be in the billions for program restart, development beyond prototype, inevitable problems, etc. but if we want our friends to have capabilities that give our potential adversaries something to worry about, this could be a win-win. Lockheed is going to SK this week and it sounds like they want to partner on the South Korean Stealth-ish Fighter Program, KF-X. Partnering with other nations to get another 5th gen option out there without having to foot the entire bill is the leverage we need in sequestration budget times. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/11/116_191216.html The potential revived F-23 would probably be beyond the means of SK and Indonesia, the two stated customers of that program's eventual aircraft, but Japan, Australia, maybe the UK and/or Israel, could cover the higher cost of development and acquisition and have the industrial capability to develop the mission systems, the GE motors for the original YF-23 could be our stake in it to develop the variable cycle turbofan technology that was demonstrated on one of the two YF-23s. Everybody gets a cut. Yup, caveat emptor Nice. If LM is building the 22 and the 35 and the 22 line opens back up, would they really protest / enforce curtailed purchase of the 35? I guess it would matter how it affected their subs but if they can keep them in line, they win either way. Next question would be is that speeding up retirement of the 15s & 16s? Divestment of the A-10?

The one that got away. Article on the runner up in the ATF selection. https://warisboring.com/articles/the-f-23-fighter-the-super-plane-america-never-built/ The article implies politics and the cost overrun of the B-2 and failure of the A-12 program (along with thrust vectoring) swung the ATF to the 22 but that the 23 had it on speed, range and stealth. If we won't export the 22, why not sell the 23 design to some allies that can afford it (Japan, Brits, Aussies, etc...) and have asked for the 22 but are blocked from it by congress?