Clark Griswold

Not in the NSFW category but WTF? Every time Kerry opens his pie-hole a torrent of nuclear strength stupidity spews forth... After reading / watching this I have never had greater doubts about the future of our country if a person of the either extreme ineptitude or unmitigated lying can attain high office... KERRY: SCRIPTURE COMMANDS USA TO PROTECT MUSLIM COUNTRIES AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING

Morality aside the Berlin Wall actually proves that physical barriers work, yes some will risk life and limb for what they want if the desire is strong enough but If the Berlin Wall was not there the population of East Germany would have quickly declined to zero as the Communist utopia was imposed and the Germans living there had an easy avenue to leave, as there was no easy avenue, the fact that only 5000 crossed proves you can control a border if you want. I don't doubt that there will be some illegal immigration via illegally crossing the border or thru smuggling but my point is that the US should use reasonable means to control its border. It is in our interest, it is our responsibility and it is only common sense. Immigration reform (either reforming to allow more or less) is a TOTALLY different issue, the only thing a security system of fences, cameras, lights, patrol roads, aerial surveillance, etc... would stop / deter is ILLEGAL immigration and all the associated evils like drug / weapon smuggling, infractions by foreign military / LE on US territory, etc... There is an enormous difference between legal and illegal immigration. Most plans to secure the border leave 2,000 legal Points of Entry meaning it would average 1 legal POE for every mile of the border, that is PLENTY and proof that we are not trying to wall ourselves off from the world but just trying to keep law and order as opposed to a free for all drag your carcass across wherever you feel like and we won't ask any questions because that's racist situation we have now. I would also disagree with your assessment that Israel's system of barriers, patrol and security infrastructure is comically short. The security system I referenced is one project of several that the Israelis have done and part of the reason they don't have a-holes routinely blow themselves up in cafes and buses any longer is they actually have a responsible government that protects its citizens first and then worries about others later. Stoping infiltration attacks via barriers, monitoring and secure POE worked very well for Israel, it can work here too. When you see bullshit like this: Two-time illegal immigrant charged with rape in Philly’s sanctuary city 7 Horrible Crimes Committed In America by Illegal Aliens You know something has to change. And the security situation is worse than you think: Cartels suspected as high-caliber gunfire sends Border Patrol scrambling on Rio Grande Also, if you think we need more low-skilled laborers or high skilled workers from abroad to compete with US citizens for jobs, try going to their countries and looking for work. Then reference Grady's post below and this article's numbers: Ninety-two million Americans are not working. If the labor-force-participation rate were the same today as it was one year ago, the unemployment rate would be 8 percent. If the labor-force-participation rate were the same today as it was in January, 2008, the unemployment rate would be nearly 12 percent. And yet our political leaders are committed to doing everything in their power to make things even worse. The political elite of both parties have renewed their drive for immigration “reform,” a drive sure to send the employment numbers falling further down the cliff — especially the employment numbers for low-skilled Americans. As I testified last April before the Senate Judiciary Committee, any reform remotely resembling the Gang of Eight bill will harm low-skilled workers in particular, resulting in both lower employment and lower wage rates for this vulnerable cohort. The harm’s not minor: Evidence adduced before the U.S.Commission on Civil Rights shows that illegal immigration has displaced hundreds of thousands of black American workers alone. So sure, let’s embark on a policy with a demonstrated track record of throwing Americans onto the unemployment line. Perfect timing. There is an unholy and uncaring alliance of big businesses and short sighted politicians that don't give a flying f@ck about actual American citizens, they want slave labor and dependable voters at the expense of the existing middle /working class But finally immigration reform, foreign workers, etc... have NOTHING to do with the need for real border security, which is there to only prevent illegal entry into the USA.

So you're point is that just because the illegal crossers will look for another avenue of illegal entry after they find the usual route too difficult or impossible after being fortified / secured then we should not even try it? That is the point of strategic fencing, to force them to only have very difficult avenues to attempt with low probability of success and/or high likelihood of capture during the attempted illegal crossing. Of course they will try something else, for every move there is a counter-move. And it will not be trillions of dollars, not even REMOTELY close to that. Besides which, you can pick your poison for how much illegal aliens cost the United States in direct cost and indirect costs and it dwarfs the cost of a reasonable security system on the border. Crime and illegal aliens in the U.S. From 1980 to 1999, the number of illegal aliens in federal and state prisons grew from 9,000 to 68,000. Today, criminal aliens account for about 30% of the inmates in federal prisons and 15-25% in many local jails. Incarceration costs to the taxpayers were estimated by the Justice Department in 2002 to be $891 million for federal prison inmates and $624 million for inmates in state prisons. That's just to house them at our expense after they committed some crime, just about 1.5 billion. The Israeli security fence system cost about 430 million for about 135 miles, just assuming you kept out only 50% of the would be convicts you could recoup your build out costs for building 6 135-mile sections of security systems in about 3.5 years and you have the benefit of having those prison beds available for some homegrown criminals who need a longer stay in the big house. The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer In 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household received around $24,721 in government benefits and services while paying some $10,334 in taxes. This generated an average annual fiscal deficit (benefits received minus taxes paid) of around $14,387 per household. This cost had to be borne by U.S. taxpayers. Amnesty would provide unlawful households with access to over 80 means-tested welfare programs, Obamacare, Social Security, and Medicare. The fiscal deficit for each household would soar. In 2011 there were about 320,000 apprehensions for illegally crossing into the USA, even if you only deterred 50% of them and assuming a them to be a head of household situation you would save on average per year in government benefit programs approximately 1.6 billion, just about enough to pay for the above six sections of 135-mile border security system and then every year you would have enough to maintain and man it. Last point, why do we (being the United States of America) have to change because someone from a foreign country doesn't like an aspect of our society, that is a legal system that somehow 1,000,000 people managed to use legally in 2012 and they somehow can't? I guess some people don't have to file their income taxes because they find the form confusing and cumbersome... The burden is on the immigrant to use our system rather than the US bending for them. No apologies for who we are or how we live, if they don't like it, figure it out somewhere else.

I assume you meant billion and not trillion. But if you think border fences in the right place can't solve illegal immigration / illegal border crossings tell that to Israel and San Diego. San Diego Fence Provides Lessons in Border Control From the article: Before the fence was built, all that separated that stretch of Mexico from California was a single strand of cable that demarcated the international border. ... Today, Henry is assistant chief of the Border Patrol's San Diego sector. He says apprehensions here are down 95 percent, from 100,000 a year to 5,000 a year, largely because the single strand of cable marking the border was replaced by double — and in some places, triple — fencing. Does the fence stop all illegal crossings? No but it dramatically curtails it and forces illegal crossings out into difficult terrain where it would be easier to catch or deter them, that area would be heavily patrolled by a new CBP / NG mission. Another little gem about border fences: Does a Border Fence Work? Check Out the Dramatic Change After Israel Put One Up For $377 million (probably the true cost of one F-35) they put up a 143 mile security system (fences, cameras, lights, patrol roads) and cut illegal crossings by +99%. I am not advocating for a 2000 mile fence system across the entire border, that is unnecessary. But what is needed is strategic fencing in adjoining urban areas, along major highways leaving from the border between international and internal checkpoints, manpower to secure those areas and the resources to patrol the wilderness areas. Are we ever going to stop all illegal immigration? No, of course not but if we reduce it to a trickle then you could have a much better debate and then action / reform on the nexus of border security, immigration policy, policy on illegal immigrants in the USA and work visas for foreign workers / illegal employment of illegal aliens. The debate never moves forward because one side (correctly with the historical evidence of inaction following the 1986 amnesty of President Reagan) knows that if they concede anything the other side will NEVER secure the border or enforce immigration laws, they will allow in more illegal aliens, try to legalize them and get them to vote thus ensuring the other side's political demise.

20 lbs. brains are working on it... GPS Not Working? Try Using Lightning to Find Your Way Pentagon looks for alternatives to GPS

Illegal Aliens Storm the Beach in San Diego, Second Attempt Thwarted

CNN Exclusive: A 13-year-old witness to ISIS' beheadings, crucifixion in Syria Next generation of Jihadis in training. Truly sad.

The society itself gets to decide. Not just one individual in it but the society itself. Freedom, tolerance and enlightenment do not demand self-destructive passive inaction when confronted by those who run counter to the principles of the Modern West, by those who choose to immigrate to the West and then proceed to live and be supported by it while still arguing and supporting subversion of it. A great example of the person(s) the West should not hesitate nor feel guilty about expelling and resisting: Radical Imam Encourages Pulling Welfare Benefits for Jihad Societies do change but the core principles do not. It is not bigoted nor racist to argue that those who are unlikely to be successful, to assimilate and likely become a burden to society thru cultural practices or present condition are restricted from joining. It is just common sense. Good article written by an immigrant to Sweden on the problem of mass immigration without assimilation. Link below on title to FP website. Posted first two paragraphs as they smartly summarize the problem the West faces, not a problem of racial demographic shift but of a problematic cultural shift. How does this relate to the original topic(s) of this thread? As Westerners (Americans, Europeans, etc..) return from the Iraq-Syria conflict fighting for ISIS or any other Islamic insurgency, if there is sufficient evidence they should be expelled from said countries losing their citizenship. This would be a good tactic in the strategy to defeat the currently greatest Islamic fascist movement, ISIS. Stockholm Syndrome How Immigrants Are Changing Sweden's Welfare State Tino Sanandaji is among the last people one would expect to argue that immigrants pose a threat to Sweden’s way of life. An economist at Stockholm’s renowned free-market think tank Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sanandaji is a member of a Swedish elite that has long defended open borders. And his own life offers a clear example of an immigrant success story: Sanandaji arrived in Sweden from Iran in 1989, with his mother and younger brother, when he was nine years old. With financial assistance from the Swedish government, Sanandaji was able to attend the elite Stockholm School of Economics. From there he moved to the United States, where he earned a Ph.D. in public policy from the University of Chicago. And yet Sanandaji now argues that Sweden should stop taking in people who share his background. “Immigration has meant that Sweden has imported a bunch of social and economic problems that to a degree didn’t exist before,” he tells me, sitting in a modern conference room at his office in the upscale Östermalm neighborhood of Stockholm. “For a number of reasons -- a long period of peace, a homogenous population -- Sweden has had a unique combination of welfare, growth, and equality. That idyll is to a certain degree over.”...

Yep - the West has a problem mainly caused by liberal left wing political / cultural activists that eschew and discourage assimilation. Nor do they let the simple question of "Are these people compatible with our society ?" be asked. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Understood, I did not participate in OD / OUP so I've only got outside knowledge on the whole op. I saw on the forums and open source about NATO's cluster f's and low supply of PGMs. NATO runs short on some munitions in Libya The only way to get in shape is to exercise or play in the game, if we want NATO to be a credible force/construct then we've got to use it when we can or should. Most of the other members are not resourcing their forces as they should, members are required to spend 2% of their GDP on defense and only a handful actually do and what they do spend is geared towards either their direct territorial defense or own defense industry. Decent article on NATO's need for an overhaul here. This will take a long time, a lot of politics, and money but getting the Euros to start to help police this area of the world when needed (North Africa & Middle East) thru NATO can relieve some of the pressure on the US. I agree, it is unlikely but possible. Like you, what I could see really making a next major powers conflict possible is a "black swan" type of event causing one or more of the major military powers to do something rash.

I agree with your assessment that Russia / China are figuring out we are in a somewhat isolationist mood or a limited intervention mood now but a good take down of IS will help the West in several ways: - demonstrate NATO (best organizational construct to use) can get its act together when necessary and act decisively - defeat the major Jihad organization in the world (currently) thus inflict a loss on the larger action against the Islamist / Jihad movement - is relatively low risk to NATO forces to be involved (operation would be pretty much Odyssey Dawn part 2) and thus likely to be successful if the Kurds / Iraqis / Syrians can handle the ground combat. With a strong air campaign giving them CAS, AI, persistent ISR and Information Dominance - they should be able to win (eventually). The risk of blow-back is real and it does give them a recruiting cause but letting them secure a nation-base and HUGE resources to fund their stated goal of aggressive expansion thus gaining more resources and funding more aggression just lets the fire get bigger before we will have to put it out. Like it or not, the West is probably going to be putting down Islamic insurgencies for sometime to come, better to nip it in the bud as Deputy Fife would say... now, if these nations start to break down into smaller nations that make more sense ethnically, religiously, etc... and what comes about is not a threat to the US, Europe, its neighbors, etc... then maybe we should just sit back and let them come about but I see IS as a cancer to be cut out vice Kurdistan which is something to be quietly supported... Back to the idea of 2014 being like 1914 with a wider war not far away, this made me pause for a minute: In Eastern Ukraine, Rebel Mockery Amid Independence Celebration Something going even more wrong with this than what it already is is just the type of incident that leads to escalating retaliations.

True - the economic hit could be huge for them and unless their victory over whatever coalition they would be fighting was utterly complete and the US was completely pushed out of the Far East, they would be very isolated. I think the idea of the author was to imagine a war started by miscalculation of reaction, not intentionally poking the US / Japan in the eye with full expectation of WWIII to follow. Reading the article and specifically those scenarios ,I thought it would be more plausible that an ally of the US / Europeans does something crazy and that is a possibility for a trigger event, i.e. accidental shoot-down of a Chinese aircraft by Japanese forces, Ukrainian forces massacring ethnic Russians in retaliation for an atrocity, Philippines Navy getting into a skirmish with the PLAAN, etc... I think something like that, actions by forces not directly under our control but whom we are linked by treaty or association to defend is a fuse that could be easily lit. But all this armchair speculation hopefully will be moot, the Cuban Missile Crisis ended well and that was about as close to Armageddon as humanity has come.

Good point - should have said Eastern or all of Ukraine Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Valid critique - I could still see the whole mess starting in the East China Sea or Russia in Eastern Ukraine to "stabilize" a humanitarian crisis I think the only thing holding back the next big one is whether or not they think the world will accept whatever it is they do - I.e. Russia takes part or all of Ukraine, China takes the Senkako islands and or Taiwan - if the West demonstrated it still has a pair by defeating ISIS, not being cowed by Russia, supporting Israel, deterring North Korea, etc... They may consider it not worth the cost... Aggression happens when someone thinks they can win or that you won't do anything about it A good operation by NATO in Syria / Iraq would give them pause Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Read a good article in the Atlantic and wanted to see what the opinion of others was on the idea that we are actually close to another major conflict between the new Great Powers via alliances and waxing / waning influence. Yes, It Could Happen Again Instability in Ukraine, chaos in Syria, conflict in the East China Sea—the trigger points for World War III are in place.

Nice girl. British Woman Vows To Become First Female Jihadist To Kill American Or British Captive

Pretty good article, like the fact the author calls out the elephant in the room: the Saudis are funding source for the Sunni trans-national Islamic insurgency primarily and that it is a movement not an organization that we (the West and some Arabic governments) are fighting. Letting go of some of these governments and hence the nations that the Sykes-Picot Agreement created may be a better long term strategy but the transition to something else may be long and hard to swallow (sts). Already there is some buyer's remorse on the part of Syrian rebels. To Syria’s Revolutionaries, Assad Isn’t Looking So Bad After All 2 Nixon went to China, we can change course too.

Yep - pick a side and then go all in. The FSA and various other Syrian rebel groups are just not plausible replacements for the government of Al-Asad, we all know that and the West just has to admit that now. Condition the recognition and support on a few realistic points and then turn all the guns on ISIS. - Amnesty for the FSA and other "reasonable" rebel factions, Jihadists movements are excluded. - International Stabilization Forces in areas are retaken by the Syrian Military. Probably a 5 year mission - Long term human rights monitoring following cessation of hostilities, long term aid conditioned on basic human rights respected but no interference with Syrian politics post-conflict. Probably about a 10 year mission. - Truth commission following cessation of hostilities. You end the Syrian Civil War, you totally defeat the most currently powerful Jihadist movement i the world and you probably open the door to dealing more effectively with rogue states. A 180 on Syria by the West will prove that we are not so hard headed that we can't make a deal when the facts change on the ground to something we did not want. Like it or not, we have to deal with these countries and doing business with them is a helluva lot easier than just saying if you are not with me then you are my enemy. Absolute positions (usually) are for idiots.

West poised to join forces with President Assad in face of Islamic State "The US has already covertly assisted the Assad government by passing on intelligence about the exact location of jihadi leaders through the BND, the German intelligence service, a source has told The Independent. This may explain why Syrian aircraft and artillery have been able on occasion to target accurately rebel commanders and headquarters" More help for Asad is a good thing for a bad situation. Not the defacto recognition of his government as the legitimate (albeit evil) government of Syria that I think would be the least bad option but maybe the Euros can go first and then we follow, with the eventual rout of ISIS thru airstrikes and support to allies on the ground. I am sure that a liberal Jeffersonian democracy will immediately flourish there after that but ANYTHING is better than ISIS.

Not for letting IS survive but maybe, just letting Sykes-Picot dissolve is a better long term strategy, if we have one in the ME... Imagining a Remapped Middle East Letting go of Sykes-Picot An enclave strategy for Iraq I am sure this would all happen in an orderly, bloodless fashion with no conflicts over land, natural resources or former national assets but instead of keeping nations drawn up 100 years ago by two former colonial powers, letting the ethnic / religious sects self-organize would make the region only smolder as opposed to the usual raging inferno.

Just watched - per usual with Vice it was excellent. Watching the video and seeing the emphasis on inculcating the youth, the IS reminded me of the Nazis during the 30's on their ascent to power and transformation of Germany. I think it was Shirer in "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" that said at some point WWII was unavoidable as a generation of Germans had been raised to believe that it was their right and destiny to dominate the world. Seeing the effort to indoctrinate the youth of their captured territory reminded me of that thought. Past some point, and it may already be passed as Islamic supremacy has already been pushed by the Saudis thru the Wahhabist movement, Frontline report on this here, that a greater conflict will have to be fought as a generation of young men, who have just enough education to fight and have been taught that God wants them to fight the infidels wherever they are but especially in the ME, are turned loose against the world. What exactly that conflict looks like is anyone's guess but what I think it would require no civilian leader today would ever order.

Pilot's false arm falls off as he lands passenger plane

The Bear is awake. Russia Brings Together Some of the World’s Best Fighter Pilots

As LBJ said: "He may be a son of a bitch but he's our son of a bitch" Assad was not exactly our guy but we could do business with him: John and Teresa enjoying dinner with the Assads in 2009. Keeping a lid on Islamic Fascism is job 1 and somewhere down the list is encouraging democracy / human rights in the Middle East. I don't want those people to have to live under dictatorships but what is bubbling under the surface is worse.

You got me - fixed.