Clark Griswold

But are those renewables all energy positive? For all the energy used in realizing them less than what was expressed when consumed? That's the problem with most renewables, most when the total chain of production, distribution and disposition is considered they are likely net negatives (looking at you corn based ethanol). Much of their business is possible thru tax credits, subsidies and other non-market force interventions for various reasons, some pure some not so much.

What the defense nerds are thinking about in terms of force structure: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wisdom-of-crowds-insights-from-the-defense-futures-simulator/ I'd consider myself a hybrid of the 6 schools of thought, but mainly a Big Spender, I say that but I cringe at the thought of growing the tail along with the tooth, feeding the DoD more money at this time absent major reform will grow more shoe clerks relative to door kickers. And on AF force structure: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44954/air-force-wants-to-retire-33-f-22s-buy-more-f-15exs-in-new-budget Retire some Eagles, Hogs, Vipers, look for an E-3 replacement, slow roll the 35 train a bit till Block 4 configuration is ready, retire older Raptors, etc... to get money for new toys.

Worth a listen, analysis of current situation and some projections: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/a-new-phase-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war-begins/

Second order effects coming Ukraine War Causing Food Shortages In Fragile Middle East https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/03/28/ukraine-war-causing-food-shortages-fragile-middle-east/ Cold War 2 / Turbulent 20s needs a strategy for recognition & management Good thing we have an august group at the helm to lead us… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Copy and concur - question though, the contractors must know those two things (OA and owning the tech), will they drive Congress thru their "means" to deny that so the traditional expensive acquisition model sticks?

Bingo, modular or a design that's easy to modify in subsequent models. Not sure how feasible this is but if the prime contractor could work with the subs for the systems to go into this platform(s) and build space, power, cooling and a generally flexible arrangement (this bay can be weapons, sensors, fuel... all hard points are wired for data/power/fuel, etc...) I might even go a step further and the first A model this F 200 series might not even have mission systems at first development and ask the vendors of radars, EO/IRs, ECM, etc... to come up with proposals for the blank slate platform. Has an open architecture and built intentionally with extra room, see what they offer... Like it An F-106-like platform for Fighter One (bigger than the 106 for all the extra capes), a successor to the F-20 for Fighter Two (I would add affordability / sustainability as requirements for this one) and for Fighter Three I might say go in with the Koreans on KF-X if the money is running out and I would make as a requirement a focus for interoperability with the F-35 as a tag team F-106X concept for a visual for perhaps the Blank Slate concept platform or Fighter One of the 200s

Meh we got it...

Private contractor Uber-Lyft for getting the hell out of Dodge... A Private Company Has Evacuated 6,500 People From Ukraine - Defense One

Thanks for digging into it, that's good info for context. I was/am pretty skeptical of the concept except as a Bay of Tonkin like effort to start WW3 unless the Russians bought off on it and agreed to hold fires to cover both ground and air ops for this hypothetical relief mission, not holding breath for that. Given the fact these missions would be ORM of around 1 million, the DO might have to sign off on them first... Appreciate the link on humanitarian mission to Moldova then delivery to Ukraine, whatever good can be done do it.

A humanitarian airlift proposal: A Humanitarian Airlift for Ukraine - WSJ Author proposes volunteers and Western nations provide cover to/inside/from Ukraine and returning fire on Russian forces if fired upon during airlift ops, seems like a call for sacrificial lambs to start direct hostilities between Russia and the West. Or if the airfield was in the west of Ukraine and cargo ops (upload, enroute, download) were monitored by a trusted third party (say an Indian AF rep and reported as only humanitarian) could this work? Use civil aircraft with specific tails only, only certain routes, certain times, etc... thinking a civil fleet like the Samaritan's Purse DC-8

True and critiques of the Century Series are legitimate, I think they (the Centuries) get a harsher debrief than they really deserved but ce la vie There is a point to being deliberate and cautious in acquisition and development but there is a point to going Leroy Jenkins sometimes and just trying something new. I think the key is to not bet too much of the farm on it so that if it does go tango uniform that it is not catastrophic. That was one of the good points of the Centuries, they were relatively affordable (not cheap but not one in a generation expensive) that enabled their quick evolution, reset and next model acquisition. Anyway, I wanna see us develop new iron that doesn't take 20 years and 69 bazillion before the first flight, to answer the CASF's call for a new, affordable 4.5 or 5 minus gen fighter

Restart Read this this morning and been thinking a bit on what comes next in the world: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/21/ukraine-invasion-putin-goals-what-expect/ So the old order goes away and we have a new order or a return to something like the old order, great power rivalry, overt spheres of influence and high tension areas occasionally going hot. What do we do or propose to do militarily to prepare for this? I got asked this question by a family member interested in military/current events/strategy and discussed, he asked what do we need? 10, 20% more military funding, that was what he thought would be a start and I was kinda negative on that idea as I told him that would only get 10-20% more military as we have it now which is to say increasing the military budget by X doesn't translate to a corresponding X increase in military capability due to bloat in non military capabilities inherent to the modern military for various reasons that have always been within the DoD but of late seem worse. So how do you get more tooth than tail if you get an increase in DoD appropriation? Do we use that to return to a 2 major conflicts or a 2 plus 2 major / minor conflict strategy? Is conscription a necessary evil to put 69,000 boots on the ground where necessary? Just rhetorical questions but as presence in theater is likely to be part of the strategy, things have to get cheaper to afford more of them - what should that mean for us as our costs and preferences have gone further to the idea of few and exquisite vs the many and cheap? Would this idea or strategy apply to personnel (junior and likely short term on service)? Restrictions on number of dependents claimed, limits on the growth of pay / benefits, further pension & veteran benefit reforms, etc... That is assuming a Russian victory in Ukraine and aggressive posturing and pressuring in Europe requiring a renewed American military footprint to reinforce allies, to deter further aggression, likewise in the Indo-Pacific, in the ME at strategic points (Straits of Hormuz for ex)… how to afford it? That is to be good and capable of being everywhere (albeit at various levels of presence for each theater) but still affordable and creditable?

Good podcast on Russian military performance so far in war https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000552446157 BLUF - they (Russians) are holding back their full capability (artillery, air, other fires) to not totally wreck the place but as that restraint is leading to slow progress to victory the gloves might come off Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If necessary, yes. They are selling us oil yes but we are giving them what they need, cash, and we can replace their oil quickly, not without some pain but yes we can. Move fast and decisively. None of us were ever guaranteed to have a perfect carefree life with no inconvenience. COVID and the initial response to it, say the first 6 months, were appropriate then we should have transitioned to living with it. Likewise I would propose being honest with the people of the Western developed world, this will be expensive and inconvenient to shut off Russian oil and gas so long as Putin runs Russia and as long as they are attacking Ukraine but it is what is required to preserve what we have come to think of as the normal and default, a developed world mostly at peace where large nations don't change borders at will with force. We have been navel gazing while that has been done with less dramatic fashion in the SCS with island building in disputed waters, atolls and reefs. This is just uglier and 1,000 times more violent but the same thing. We have to stop it here and now. Returning to the idea of a no fly zone in Western Ukraine, I doubt if the AFs of multiple nations came together and established a mission, not just the US, that the Russian AF would not ingress and challenge it. They would cede that airspace and not fly there. Putin knows he has his hands full now, shooting down fighters from other nations that are not bombing his ground forces anywhere in Ukraine, that are not leaving the container they are patrolling and not attacking SAM and AAA sites elsewhere in the country would be foolish. This gives the Ukrainians a safer area to fight from. No but we signed a check for them back in the day with the Budapest Memo, with our support of Euromaidan movement. I know we have no formal defense treaty and I know Ukraine is not a perfect democracy like our allies South Korea and Taiwan were not at the beginning of their democratic systems of governance. We are not all powerful, we have limited resources but this fight is one to expend some of them. This is not some amphorous mission where the unofficial goal is to change an ancient and radically different culture into a post-modern Western civilization, it is to stop conventional aggression by one nation-state against another. We can do this but at a cost.

I'm not eager for it but I know it is the most feasible thing we can do to forestall & prevent defeat in this conflict and prove to the other aggressive authoritarian power in the East that if they try aggression, we will engage and not just leave our ally to their fate. Honestly, why have we been spending billions and billions of dollars into this technology and weapons systems then like 22, 35, etc…? To win the high end fight, we have envisioned the high end fight being in another theater mainly but destiny being the fickle woman she it, decided it would be in Europe versus our old adversary rather than our new one we would be tested. We have the means, we have an ally under attack and we have a dangerous moment. We have to prove to the authoritarian systems in the East and their allies that we will fight back, we will not allow our allies and those who aspire to join our systems, alliances and our way of life to be picked off one at a time.

That is the prevailing opinion. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/25/nato-ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-00012068 And a proposal on using almost exclusively 5th Gens to enforce a no fly zone https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/f-22-stealth-fighters-how-nato-could-enforce-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine/ I want the Ukrainians to win, I want the Russians to lose, when you look at the comparison in militaries, economies and capabilities the overmatch the aggressor has is leading to an inevitable conclusion unless something changes in the operational environment. All 5th Gen then, no warnings on being fired on, stay EMCON nothin and receive target data over the net, the first flight of Flankers that are fired on with no warning or targeted indications will give them incentive to not fly there.

I get it, it's a high risk COA but here's the coordination with Russia: Fuck off, don't fly inside of these coordinates or you will be fired on. What Would Putin Do? WWPD - he would be aggressive and bold because he knows his opponents in Western capitols have been timid, we know that equation has of late been leading to him pushing us around. F that anymore. Like all bullies, once he gets a bloody nose I think his bluster will fade and his power wane. Call me irresponsible but they need to learn a lesson, losing an air battle, being bested by the West, intimidated and cowed is the best thing for peace and stability right now, they (the Russians) need to lose and be pushed back. We're hand wringing and worrying about things going wrong, well they've gone almost as wrong as they can, it's time to do something different. We develop ROE and use all our technological means to avoid blue on blue, it's risky but the risk of him winning is unacceptable. Easy for me to say at 0' and 0 KIAS but it's true. Good work boys - NKAWTG.

No fly zone? https://www.theblaze.com/news/adam-kinzinger-no-fly-zone-ukraine Not sure how viable this is with where the war is now, no open source on far the extent of Russian AF air superiority extends into Western Ukraine but... if the Russian AF has not established CAPs (sustained) over the Western portion of Ukraine, could this be a high risk COA to establish a redoubt or sanctuary from which Ukraine can continue gather forces, receive aid from air and land connections, etc... Gather up the team, not exactly under NATO but NATO members and execute in STRONG numbers... Put Pat 3 batteries on the other side of the border with WEZ rings extending into Western Ukraine and establish a mission with UN blessing (don't care if Russia has the Sec Council chair right now), have an overwhelming fighter advantage, thinking keeping 20-30 fast movers on station at all times with alert backup at the ready, tankers flying 24/7 over Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc... US, UK, Poland, French, Italy, Aussies... no air to ground work just a missile launching phalanx if any Russian aircraft crosses this longitude line... if we wanna do something, do it Three of the nations I volunteered for this are nuclear powers, is Russia gonna go nuclear against three other nuclear powers? Doubt it. It has risk but letting him win here is riskier.

I don’t know and when I saw it i wondered the same thing, maybe crew was getting ready for their own personal plans when the shit hit the fan or ordered to duty, might be truly unairworthy, fuel directed to fighters, etc… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Post was updated An-225 not destroyed

One Ukrainian Flanker got away https://theaviationgeekclub.com/heres-the-ukrainian-air-force-sukhoi-su-27-flanker-that-landed-in-romania-after-having-been-intercepted-by-romanian-air-force-f-16-fighting-falcon-fighter-jets/ Haven’t heard much about the Ukrainian AF - were most of their pointy nose jets destroyed on the ground, any air to air engagements or anybody know anything releasable? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Where the hell are all the do good tech & finance companies? Why isn’t Google, FB, Twitter, Apple, etc…. suspending business and operations in reaction to aggression? If they wanna do something, cut them off Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just substitute Putin for Hitler and this Mel Brooks clip fits Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

GD it you're right.

Concur Was pretty sure that would be the pretext / story / excuse. Well, we'll need an investigation, a study group all while the bear eats his kill. True Copy that, good on 'em. NEO - are we gonna need it to get civilians out of Europe or just to the adjacent countries? If they won't accept refugees (in the 100s of thousands or million plus), where do they go? New security footprint in Europe? If they invade, still an if, do we return to a sizeable US forces forward based deterrence posture? One that is land power centric, how do we pay for it or do we rob Peter to pay Paul? That's just the military / security part, does anyone in power today have the balls to go full Cold War and choke out the regime of Putin by other means? Full spectrum DIME warfare but not going hot.