The answer is they think retention is fine. I saw an AFPC road show recently where they said retention is on par or higher than expected. I think they based this idea on a higher than expected ACP take rate, but I don't really remember.
According to the brief I saw, there was an 11F shortage of about 9 pilots in 2012. It's projected to be over 300 short in '13 and continue on that trend for the foreseeable future. Their answer was to create more 11Fs (even though our squadrons and jets are going away). Another part of their plan is to have a blanket "no" to anyone seeking a release from 11F for any programs like Olmstead, White House fellowship, staff, exchange, etc.
Pilsung