1) In my time in the AF, I was rarely surprised that those who got passed over for O-4 were passed over…
2) To be a Captain (or soon to be) and get picked picked up for UPT means they most likely had a solid record to begin with…my bet is the percentage of late to rate (pilots) Captains getting passed over for O-4 is much lower than those in their original career fields, as well as their non-late to rate fellow pilots.
3) The UPT ADSC is to go to pilot training and become a pilot, that’s it. Promotion is definitely not a gurantee, and if said potential late to rate officer is concerned about promotions (though see point above), my advice for them is to focus not on becoming a pilot, but being the best officer they can be and getting promoted in their original career field.
4) The AF is not hurting for qualified candidates to go to UPT…if fewer non-rated officers want to become pilots, then it’s not much of a loss IMO.
5) It’s the AF, and it’s far from anything we all think is “fair” in our own minds. If we’re going down that rabbit hole, I’m sure I got quite a few people beat, willing to discuss offline.
6) They signed up to serve, meeting the minimum standard isn’t that hard. And if they really want to get out, there are ways to do it.