Jump to content

thud

Registered User
  • Posts

    13
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by thud

  1. BO brain trust, I usually stay away from surveys, but I'm humbly requesting info from you all. Here's the deal: Left AD, started a business that gives us the latitude to help other military folks start something of their own as they transition, and we're looking for more data about helping the military community succeed in starting businesses. https://bit.ly/militaryentrepreneur I really appreciate it... feedback, spears, snarky comments, ridicule... all welcome.
  2. Hey dude, Here's the short answer -- it's better than not investing, it's grounded in widely-accepted portfolio construction processes (from both an academic and practitioner's standpoint... although that doesn't make it right...), and it's cheap for a fire and forget solution. Tax-loss harvesting is a benefit, especially at the no-cost-to-you higher frequency they run it (daily). But... I'm not necessarily a fan. I can get into the nuts and bolts if you're interested, but I'll leave it with a summary of shortfalls: 1. Limited investment menu (diversification in name only, in my opinion). 2. A subjective and incomplete risk tolerance methodology. Most investors' risk tolerances change under discrete gain/loss scenarios... that is, equal gains and losses aren't symmetric when it comes to the impact on decision making. Folks get more emotional over losses than they do gains... which changes the risk curve. 3. Mean-variance optimization of a portfolio is analogous to building a flying schedule under the complete belief that inputs are accurate. Garbage in = garbage out. Wealthfront addresses some of the issues with MVO, but the underlying theories that generate the capital market assumptions used in the optimization process -- though widely accepted -- can be improved upon. HOWEVER, most advisors don't run bespoke portfolio optimization using more robust methods... so I hesitate to bring this up given the lack of options on the outside. 4. As MtF pointed out, the lack of humans on the other end of a phone may prove detrimental to the business model if things go south. Betterment caught some flak for suspending trading during Brexit and not communicating anything about it to its clients.
  3. I had luck with Rule 7 in table 4.5 (36-3003) during my AD time. It required some "selling" as to the institutional value of the PTDY (as in what the AF gets out of it), but it worked for me. This was for a professional conference over 10 days, so I would imagine a graduate degree would be more beneficial to an officer's professional development than exchanging business cards and collecting drink coupons. I completed a hybrid master's degree program as well, and I ended up working a drug deal with the school that allowed me to complete additional elective courses in lieu of attending the in-residence sessions -- I also completed the "work" that would've been done while at the school. I would imagine that your school may be willing to discuss an abbreviated term, especially for an AD guy. If you haven't extinguished all options working with/through the school, I would do that first and then engage your CC about PTDY. Good luck!
  4. I believe MtF's point was that most real estate investors fail to discount with an appropriate illiquidity factor and perhaps overlook the true costs/risks of real estate (especially as your capital structure becomes more complex as a real estate mogul). Most of the squadron bros who were focused solely on any investment (be it RE, equity, debt, Iraqi Dinars, etc) didn't understand how to compare apples to oranges as they considered their investment options. When the light came on, nearly all of them realized that tilting a portfolio too heavily to one strategy brought with it some unanticipated tail risk and unforeseen opportunity cost. ...and second-order effects, as well. Consider your estate plan and how real property (and mortgages) will transfer to your heirs. Probate ain't pretty in some states and trusts cost cash. I would use personal preference as a cautionary tale, considering folks tend to find comfort in the numbers they've crunched. You can look at it as confirmation bias, but everyone likes to justify their ideas as the right ideas. Assumptions in your cap rate can be way off, just like that equity analyst's assumptions when he misjudged Target's cost of capital and expected dividend in his Gordon growth model. Valuation is valuation at some level, so I believe you can approach real estate just as you would an equity investment. Projecting those cash flows into the future is certainly tricky no matter what you're analyzing. While stagflation may be an exaggeration of the current environment, having some real assets in your portfolio certainly helps. Rent-producing assets have been a nice addition to those seeking current income, especially against the current economic and demographic backdrops. Rent inflation vs. CPI is a pretty stark contrast (over the last 3-ish years). 11F..., if you enjoy a consumer-centric theme, I would encourage you to investigate a 50/50 portfolio of consumer staples/consumer discretionary from various perspectives, not just total return or income. Being an active retail investor is a tough business, and I appreciate your conviction. If you're curious what type of data you're up against, cruise over to RS Metrics and see the real-time info they're selling.
  5. BODN braintrust, Recently separated AD guy who just swore in to a TR gig. No break in service, but obviously I'm waiting for the orders and appointment letter to catch up. Based on the most recent AF guidance, completion of your commitment WITH NO break in service directly into a Reserve spot makes you TAMP eligible. I called the DEERS folks to square away some benefits issues, and the SPD code came up. I have an email train from the myPers folks saying that I would leave AD with a TAMP-ineligible SPD... and it would stay that way until my gaining Reserve unit inprocessed me and verified that I had no break in service. Big question: How did you go about getting your SPD code changed (or 214, if necessary) once you were gained? Or how did you "verify" that you were actually eligible for TAMP? Thanks, fellas. edited for: words and such.
  6. BO.net braintrust, Searched and couldn't find a recent/relevant answer (and I'm just too lazy to search AFIs)... what happens behind the curtain if you begin the separation process in between the time PRFs are due and the promotion list is released? Does the fact that your separation date is after the expected results list have any bearing on the outcome, or is your name automatically removed from consideration? I imagine your name is pulled, but I could be wrong.
  7. BONE WSO's story should sum up the common theme here... networking. I started talking to the old dudes in my previous squadrons about guys they knew who had made the transition... which led me to some former pilots working in the middle market space and a few boutique private equity firms... who in turn paired me up with non-military guys closer to where I was looking to move geographically. Once I started talking to the non-military folks it obviously became a little more difficult to translate my value into something that would make a recruiter's ears perk up. However, those guys did provide a solid service of thrashing through my resume in an attempt to help the military-to-civilian conversion. I spent the better part of a year cold-calling and listening to "I loved Top Gun as a kid" comments, but I realized that IB wasn't for me... so I kept on reaching out to people with the expectation that I'll figure out where I fit before I separate in 1.5 years. Mappleby's absolutely right with respect to the recruiting cycle of the bulge bracket players (if you're looking at banking)... middle market guys like William Blair, RW Baird, Jefferies, etc may have a little more latitude in their summer associate programs, but I imagine that it would be a unique situation (definitely driven by you knowing someone). Your MBA alma mater may be able to plug you in with somebody as well. WallstreetOasis has a lot of noise... which I believe someone else mentioned. I'd recommend Mergers and Inquisitions (use the google).
  8. Anyone know what came of Welsh's from-the-heart letter to fighter pilots? I'm glad we followed through with actually trying to correct a problem with profound impacts to a large portion of the mission (if we even have a definable one these days). ...I doubt that inappropriate squadron shenanigans were the root cause of low retention, but I've been wrong before. Once.
  9. Thanks to Tank and the rest of the baseops brain trust for the help... PM me if you want more info or are in the same boat. It took a few calls/emails to AETC and AFPC, but everything got resolved. Like Freddriver highlighted, know the reg and be prepared to quote it... and make sure you check the fine print on Form 63s or any base-level forms that your outbound assignment or training managers send your way.
  10. Fellas, My search efforts have turned up nothing, but I'm still hunting for clarification on 36-2107, table 1.1, note 1 regarding "crossflow to a different weapons system (basic qualification) or aircraft airframe." Previous T-38C FAIP to 11F looking at an IFF job for the next assignment. Does anyone have SA on whether this would invoke the ADSC logic in the regulation? Despite the T-38C vs AT-38C designation difference, I'm not certain this counts as a different weapons system... or airframe for that matter. Any wisdom would be greatly appreciated... the ADSC Operations Office at AFPC was less than helpful (despite multiple Bronze Stars awarded to Total Force Service Center employees). Thanks!
  11. I sat through a staff meeting on Friday about the new housing policy. The E1-E6 memo (to maximize occupancy of Lord's Walk, a just-off-base dilapidated housing area) is a directive underneath a broader initiative to guarantee 98% government housing occupancy. So to be clear, everyone is affected by the new initiative. When you arrive, you will be offered government housing. New inbounds will be prioritized to move immediately if there's an available house. The officer waiting list is maxed-out to move people off-base to on-base, but if you get here and there's an open house, you'll bump people out of the way (since the wing has to use its own money to move people from the economy to government quarters). If you move on base -- as long as the current directive holds -- you will not be able to move off base and receive OHA. So make sure you know what you want before you get here or figure it out quickly during your 15 days of TLA. FWIW, we lived on the economy in Bury for the first 9 months and then moved on base to new Lakenheath housing (Liberty Village) prior to heading downrange. It turned out to be the best move in our situation due to some pregnancy complications that developed while I was deployed. If you have any family members on EFMP, you may be seen on base at Lakenheath or at Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge. I have no idea how the ops tempo is on the Mildenhall side of things, but get some honest feedback from your sponsor and some friends that are already over here. You (and your children if you have any) will be the ones spending the vast majority of the time in your house and relying on the services of the surrounding community. PM if you need any more info on the area. Best of luck!
×
×
  • Create New...