Lawman

I mean there is in fact a way the Russians can win this, and that’s the west pulling back it’s industrial capacity and economic support for the Ukrainians and making this a simple attritional arithmetic. At that point it’s simply Ukrainian casualties and ammo consumption vs Russian casualties and ammo consumption and last man standing wins. That is still a fight that as bloody as it would go the Russians are more than willing to take as a “win.” This is a society comfortable with casualties to accomplish a means in a way we in the west simply can’t fathom. Same as a 27 million casualty victory sounds insane to us, but they celebrate it in their text books. They also leave out all the ways they were economically propped up to win the great patriotic war by our economic capacity. At one point the Russians were “winning” against the Wehrmacht… in a 6 to 1 exchange in casualties against them. The Western powers absolutely cannot afford to succumb to the isolation and apathy preached by some and back off on the support because it’s the one thing the Russian don’t have in abundance and can’t simply muscle over. The worst thing going on now is the fight over Bakhmut is sapping combat power the Ukrainians could be using come spring to launch more offensives. The Russians know this which is why they are happy to lob bullet sponges in the form of their prison conscripts because what does that cost them compared to its effect of soaking up useful Ukrainian combat power. Even still Crimea is extremely vulnerable right now in the long term because they are slowly being cut off from logistics. The rail road bridge is gone and the Uke’s now have the ability to range into the region with long range precision fires so the Russians can’t mass logistics even if they had trains they could run forward. If Crimea falls into disarray that could be the negotiation token Zelensky is waiting for to call for a negotiated withdrawal of Russian troops. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well you’re definitively predicting a nuclear war if we continue doing what hasn’t produced one in the year it’s been going on. Or that the Chinese will save them despite seeming to be woefully unaware of all the problems they are facing in the near and far term. And now you want to make this some Os vs Es nonsense because what? I’m a W anyway, so I’d call out stupidity regardless of it’s rank. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That article was from April of last year. Do we need to get you a Calendar for when and what sanctions ramped up and how? Here’s one from January since time appears to be an abstract concept for you https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3808910-european-oil-sanctions-costing-russia-172-million-per-day-report-says/amp/ There are plans to push that as high as 500 million a day in losses. But simultaneous we need more supply output from OPEC or we can upend more fragile economies currently on our side. Having a relatively mild winter in Europe doesn’t hurt and coming into the warmer season sees renewed ability by the Euro sector to keep demand lower.

“May be” F it man you’ve been provided no shortage of people and sources demonstrating yes what I’m saying is in fact correct. https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1093121762/russias-oil-drilling-plans-may-be-in-jeopardy-without-the-wests-support We know what dollar amounts and total volumes that move where because it’s a global financial market. There isn’t some mystery about intake in Europe vs intake in Asia or the fact that the infrastructure just isn’t there. Again these weren’t some Soviet era state secret industries, Shell and Exxon were the ones doing the work for them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you doubled not just the Chinese, but entire Asian consumption of Russian petroleum exports tomorrow it wouldn’t equal half the loss of their European markets. On top of that they don’t have the capacity to move that same scale of oil into China and wouldn’t even if every proposed pipeline was open (only 1 currently runs out of the Siberian fields). They have to make up all the difference of intake largely in sea transport of oil. Goes back to the whole insurance and financial capital problem. No simply “turning to the Chinese” isn’t an economically viable solution, neither are the Chinese capable of supporting them with the same level of technical expertise at the scale they need to keep their industry afloat. China makes tech at volume with largely stolen Intellectual property, not at quality. There is a reason the Siberian oil explorations dropped off a cliff after the 2014 invasion of Crimea, and there wasn’t some state run Chinese energy company just waiting in the wings to swing in and gobble up the excess. And that doesn’t even touch that whole worlds largest importer of food problem, which is an issue if you’re using excess capital to prop up a neighboring power at the same time your industrial labor costs skyrocket and your internal demographics collapse. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

See now you’re back to being ignorant or at the very least obtuse. “Who will they turn to….” What the hell is that even supposed to mean. If your assertion is they need the west to give them long term sustainment of their economy then that points to the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool of foreign policy. If you are trying to assert that the Chinese will simply step in and laterally equal western tech and expertise or economic consumption you are grossly ignorant of the reality here. Simply put the Chinese can’t do that. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/business/china-russia-ukraine-sanctions-economy.html https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/china-russia-war-ukraine-taiwan-putin-xi Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Most of their Siberian wellheads are maintained with western assistance. https://delano.lu/article/russia-depends-on-western-tech https://cepa.org/article/sanctions-against-russia-are-more-effective-than-skeptics-suggest/ They aren’t being maintained and the Russians are in danger of not having a way to export them with the freeze on insurance and exporting vessels by western nations. (Again results of unified sanctions). They can’t make that difference up with the Chinese which despite volume will never match the peak high end tech that was lost. We can see Russian industrial accidents from space right now. They’ve been increasing in frequency since this war started. They may export energy as a raw product but they import the technical expertise that allowed them to actually pump it out of the ground. The outcome of a mass exodus of that resource is kinda predictable And if you’re China right now you have to weigh the idea of being belligerent and triggering massive unified sanctions when you are simultaneously the worlds largest importer of energy and more importantly food. That’s in addition to seeing how your Russian derived tech systems cope when dealing with western weapons. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again… as obvious that it is you still haven’t watched the provided information that explains why this phase of the war is actually about preventing WWIII, we don’t have to kill Putin to achieve that. Demonstrating to him (in indirectly China) that wars of conquest will not be accepted by a unified group of western powers is done by what we are currently doing and that we (the west) don’t dither internally to the point of giving into compliant isolationist views that benefit the belligerent party. Putin can always go home and keep his shamble empire. The difference now is he does it without the ability to project or seriously threaten any of his neighbors a large group of which are Article 5 NATO powers which in case of hostilities we would be compelled to act to protect. And likewise Xi now has to look at what happened economically and physically and recalculate if he really thinks his first military foray should be to execute an apposed amphibious operation against an Island armed with all our modern weapons. Sitting around on our asses, sending thoughts and prayers instead of arms and supplies, and watching him take Ukraine will do nothing but embolden a military which has lost the majority of its conventional arms capability. When they come out for the next war (because this isn’t their first) they won’t hesitate to take the nuclear weapons out the second they miscalculate western resolve, engage in an offense into Poland/Latvia/Lithuania/etc, and suddenly find themselves facing a United NATO conventional force they have no ability to stop. That becomes a far more dangerous scenario than the current one where despite our aid to Ukraine, western leaders up to and including the US president can literally land in the middle western capital of a war zone and disrupt/delay the Russian targeting cycle for fear of widening the conflict. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It wasn’t terrible, but it was kinda terribly moderated (in that it really wasn’t dude just kinda kept time). There was a definite disconnect between parties on what was to be the subject of discussion, Crenshaw went in there prepared to defend specific Ukrainian intervention and aid and more broadly foreign policy. The other side wanted to discuss wider foreign intervention and spent very little time discussing Ukraine (or Thailand) outside saying “well it sucks for them but we don’t have an interest there.” Crenshaw did a good effort in explaining that we have serious economic interest not just a moral one towards maintaining security and that “the two big moats” as his opposite put it are not sufficient protection to simply withdraw from the policies we’ve had since the late 1800s. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Great bro, do you own research. Hey somebody let the DIA know we don’t need them anymore. Nothing to learn that can’t be found out on dubious YouTube/Reddit posts of some guy shouting from the cab of a truck. Remember “experts” are the ones that told you gasoline is toxic to humans… better question that now because Covid. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

It does when you deliberately ignore or flat out dismiss people with way more knowledge and access to the circles discussing the nuance of what is really going on there (causes/current situation/selective end-states). Again, unclass forum. That dudes about as succinct as you’re gonna get while still staying in the green. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You’ve been handed the material to educate yourself as best can be done in an unclass forum. And you’ve deliberately chosen to ignore that. That by definition makes you ignorant if your sole screaming reason for wanting us to stop doing what we are doing is “Ukraine isn’t NATO” or whatever other talking point you’ve been handed. And you can’t be told the reality is something different. Again, in about 6 minutes you could educate yourself on the reason the current status quo of exchange of support for US/NATO interest far outweighs not doing anything now and just waiting for an actual shooting war with NATO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You aren’t pro Putin, you’re just ignorant. Quick go find us some more memes from Reddit to tell us how important it is we stop supporting Ukraine in any meaningful fashion or how this isn’t NATO’s concern. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was in the room when somebody asked Chief Friel (now CW5 but then pilot of the 47 that crash landed down the mountain) if he would have done anything differently. His response was had he known then he wasn’t going to be much use he’d have shut it down on the LZ and put himself and his crews into the fight with the rangers. There’s also a random civilian guy that works the ramp at SOATB on Campbell Army Airfield. Unassuming guy who runs blade tie downs and stuff out in a golf cart. You’d never know he has a silver star for his work pulling ammo from the wrecked aircraft and taking it in belts up the mountain to resupply the ground force gunners from their 240 ammo. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Reddit is a cesspool of all the things wrong with giving anyone access to everyone and granting that person complete anonymity at the same time. Going there is like the social media equivalent walking into a gas station bathroom on some random middle of nowhere off-ramp in Mississippi. Even if it might look ok (and that’s a big if)… deep down you should probably take a shower afterward just to be safe. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

In a word… Yes. Because we aren’t “going to war” and again that could be explained to you in about 6 minutes. You’ve spent more time arguing with me than it would take to educate yourself as to why the strategic policy makers are doing what they are doing in regards to arming Ukraine. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Your opinion is noted. It’s stupid and Ill-informed but noted. Here is a chance to actually educate yourself on the why of what’s going on and how waiting for Russia to attack NATO is stupid. “Expert” in quotes, adorable. Yeah it’s probably pretty fair to say he’s a crap load more qualifiedto discuss the nuance of this and why it’s critical while maintaining an apolitical stance while you deliberately drag up Biden and Blinken. Dude routinely lampoons Biden, Trump, and Obama so he’s hardly some unqualified political narrative talking head. He isn’t the media, he’s a well circulated published author and does strategic policy seminars for billion dollar investment groups and government strategic planning. So yeah, it’s fair to say he’s probably decently qualified at his job and pretty accurate in his interpretations considering the amount of money that kind of influence its being steered by. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tell us you didn’t watch the video without telling us you didn’t watch it… Dude lays out exactly why waiting for Russia to invade Poland/Latvia/Estonia/etc is suicide at about the 6 minute mark… At 25 minutes he explains why something like Nordstream would happen intentionally… Yes we get it, it’s not Tucker Carlson but this guy briefs strategic level government officials and key notes seminars on energy and agriculture industry leaders and investors. Tucker… briefs people living in trailer parks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This guy succinctly explains in the first six and a half minutes why you’re viewpoint is completely out of contact with why we are doing this. It’s not about widening a war it’s about preventing the war with NATO a phase before it can occur, because at this point the Russians are recognizing their only real card to play against NATO at this point is going to the nuclear assets. Oh he’s also updated this presentation as the war has evolved, and for those that don’t think the Russians have a reason to destroy Nordstream, you really need to go look at the amount of damage not being able to readily get Natural Gas is about to do in the most powerful industrial base in the EU. It’ll hurt the Russians… but it will kill the Germans and by extension hobble the EUs economic ability to do anything. And deliberate sabotage vs just turning it off gives them the political card to play accusing the US and forcing political pressure to lessen aid to Ukraine (as we are now actively seeing calls for). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The evidence is building from open source intel that the Russians have consumed a lot of their viable FMC ASE equipment and are now operating their KA-52s without it. We’re seeing shoot downs occur without any expenditures of flares or similar, and the post shoot down analysis of photos shows them either partially or completely not installed. I don’t doubt their fixed wing aircraft are having similar problems. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Look at how far we’ve advanced in communications. We’ve come a long way from having hostile entities and criminals need to steal our PIA from a laptop left in a random rental car or the bathroom of a Panera bread. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

But wait we were assured this was strictly about energy production. That must be some massively efficient energy what with pushing the envelope for weapons grade when you can make power with a third that level pretty much anywhere. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Between this stuff and what’s been going on with DCA over Iraq/Syria it’s become the air to air version of what we were doing spending multi hundred thousand dollar to kill a guy with a shovel. Directed Energy can’t get here fast enough… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oh you definitely sound like you “did your own research on the matter.” Again, you say you aren’t sympathetic to the Russians absurd view that this is all justified, then you list out tit for tat pretty much their interpretations of the Maiden protests and other pretexts for invasion of Ukraine. Your little history lesson ignores a lot including the long established history of the guy those protests resulted in deposing (you know the one that won the first set of rigged elections a decade earlier after his opponent was mysteriously poisoned then later lost). Then there’s how he got elected after Russia used economic embargo of gas and other means to paralyze Ukraine’s infrastructure and work to foment the western push that got him elected the second time. Oh and Russia actually did join the rest of the world in recognizing the new Ukrainian president. They just did so after they annexed portions of the country they wanted and staged rigged elections to support their actions as legitimate. Just a quick reminder…. The Donbas and Crimea both belonged to Ukraine. What next you gonna tell us this was really about de-nazification or some other excuse that absolves them of any culpability in the decade long war inside the borders of a neighbor? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Again we didn’t start this, and your efforts to be sympathetic to the Russian point of view aren’t lost on the adults in the room. We didn’t start a war with a European neighbor, they did. We didn’t invade a country under false pretenses to overthrow its government and attempt to replace it with a more amenable vassal state, they did. And they are “spinning their wheels” because in no small amount of efforts to bolster the Ukrainian military by U.S. and other NATO nations since they started annexing territory in 2014. You seem to either fail to understand that or deliberately do not acknowledge it as the effect of Russian aggression not the cause of it. Our enhanced posturing and things like Atlantic Resolve are costing us billions and have been since 2014. They are costing us manpower because of the increased demand on families and soldiers which costs more in the long run due to lost experience and the requirement to restore it. The Army has acknowledged the desire to go to the lower cost EDRE enhanced model of maintaining readiness and deterrence without the full on deployments of rotational combat forces, but that has been predicated on the cessation of direct hostilities by Russia against its European neighbors, which I’ll remind you yet again came first before the deployments started. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk